CNL 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 T R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 T R11 T R12 T

Purse $100,000. Seven Furlongs. For Three Year Old Fillies. No nomination fee. $250 to enter and $250 to start. Supplementary nomination of $1,000 (which includes entry and starting fees) may be made at the time of entry. $100,000, with 60% to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight: 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a sweepstakes allowed 2 Lbs. Non-winners of two races other than maiden or claiming allowed 4 Lbs. This race will be limited to fourteen (14) starters. In the event more than fourteen entrants pass through the entry box, preference will be given to stakes winners, then highest lifetime earnings. Any horse excluded due to the aforementioned preference shall be refunded the entry fee and supplementary nomination fee, if applicable. Nominations closed Wednesday, July 15, 2026 with 41 nominations and 1 supplement. Trophy to the winning owner.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Celebrity Quest	0% 99-1 / 12/1	4.1%	P	5th/1w	90 +1.8	97⁴-2	93⁶	92⁵	81³	L1T+3.0▲cls	29%	✓+2.24∠
2	Mashallah	95% 1-9 / 6/5	60.9%	EP	1st/1w	93 +5.2	102¹+3	104¹	103¹	77⁶		20%	✓+3.4★PRIME1∠
3	Embrace the Moment	1% 50-1 / 5/1	9.0%	EP	3rd/1w	90 +1.8	97⁴-2	99³	94⁴	80⁴	★goldJ+1.3	44%	✓+1.51∠
4	Slewperstitus ✓	1% 99-1 / 5/1	8.9%	S	7th/1w	92 +4.1	99²+0	101²	97³	90²	★gold	26%	1∠
7	Shilling	0% 99-1 / 6/1	7.3%	EP	2nd/4w	90 +2.2	95⁶-4	96⁵	90⁷	80⁴	L3★goldrte→spr	18%	4∠
8	Raspberry	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.7%	EP	4th/4w	88 -0.7	92⁷-7	92⁷	91⁶	56⁷	L2▲cls	15%	3∠
9	Wrong Shoes	2% 50-1 / 6/1	8.1%	P	6th/3w	94 +5.7	98³-1	99³	99²	91¹	J+1.1KEY	25%	✓+1.6

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 22.8s par 23.2 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 VULN 100/95 Mashallah 7 LP »»» 98/107 Shilling 3 ⚡ 96/102 Embrace the Moment 8 »»» 103/97 Raspberry 1 89/94 Celebrity Quest 9 LP »» 96/105 Wrong Shoes 4 98/99 Slewperstitus

On the lead: 2, 7, 3 · race sets up for closers

2 Mashallah ★ PRIME THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs EP

94.6%

MODEL %

1-9

MODEL FAIR

+49.1

EDGE vs ML

6/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig102 +3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 102 vs par 99

Class93.4 +5.2 vs race +8.6 gap

MC35.5% fair 9-5

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced90.0 -0.4 vs today

Pace EP86.9 best 100.0

Pace LP78.7 best 94.7

Energy0.53

Connections

JockTyler Gaffalioneκ 0.19

TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61

J×T402 · 20% win · 49% ITM

Angles

Tyler Gaffalione / Brendan Walsh 19% -4%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	3	2	67%	103.8
2026	3	2	67%	103.8
2025	0	0	—	—
CNL	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	2	67%	103.8
Sprint	2	2	100%	103.8
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-24 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.05 B 88 ◆Original Sin·103 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.40 B 70 06-28 CD 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 32 06-20 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 61 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 53 05-24 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 67

SIREMaxfield 88 96%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 35d	SAR	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	1	5	0.0	F	92	82	62	103	107	91	0.55	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-05-30 37d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	5	10	12.5	F	100	92	95	99	102	93	0.85	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-04-23	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	6	0.0		90	84	75	104	110	88	3.5	Joel Rosario

9 Wrong Shoes

3F 118 lbs P

2.1%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.2

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig98 -1 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class93.9 +5.7 vs race +4.1 gap

MC12.0% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced90.9 +0.5 vs today

Pace EP85.0 best 96.3

Pace LP85.7 best 105.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockJohn Velazquezκ 0.24was Jaime Torres · +1.1

TrnJohn Ortizκ 0.29

J×T12 · 25% win · 50% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	11	2	3	1	18%	99.1
2026	7	1	3	1	14%	99.1
2025	4	1	0	0	25%	89.0
CNL	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	10	2	3	1	20%	99.1
Sprint	11	2	3	1	18%	99.1
Wet	1	0	0	1	0%	95.8

WORKS 07-25 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 40 07-18 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 46 ◆Downforce·87 07-12 KEE Four Furlongs 49.00 b 55 04-25 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 67 04-18 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 66 03-28 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 47

SIREStreet Boss 83 77%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-24 18d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	2	7	5.5	F	84	87	97	99	102	94	10.67	Jaime Torres
2026-06-06 28d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	89	1	7	0.0		89	86	86	95	97	93	1.21	Axel Concepcion
2026-05-09 36d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	90	2	6	2.2	F	96	91	105	94	92	92	1.96	Danilo Grisales Rave
2026-04-03 20d	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Muddy	G2	95	3	5	2.5	F	87	87	89	96	100	90	14.29	Joel Rosario
2026-03-14 34d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	4	7	7.2	F	84	83	69	95	101	89	14.9	Danilo Grisales Rave
2026-02-08 37d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	87	2	10	0.2	F	81	85	81	95	93	87	13.8	Joel Rosario
2026-01-02 37d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	86	4	9	3.8		98	92	86	93	80	84	30.9	Danilo Grisales Rave
2025-11-26 41d	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	87	5	7	6.2	F	74	87	84	89	75	82	16.99	Danilo Grisales Rave
2025-10-16 16d	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	1	11	0.0		85	86	92	89	74	77	44.93	Danilo Grisales Rave
2025-09-30	IND	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	76	4	11	6.2	F	77	85	84	87	78	73	5.3	Danilo Grisales Rave

3 Embrace the Moment

3F 118 lbs EP

1.4%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.3

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig97 -2 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class90.0 +1.8 vs race +7.3 gap

MC13.9% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced87.9 -2.5 vs today

Pace EP83.1 best 96.4

Pace LP82.4 best 102.3

Energy0.55

Connections

JockPaco Lopezκ 0.23was Julio Hernandez · +1.3

TrnGreg Comptonκ 0.25

J×T18 · 44% win · 61% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	2	2	40%	98.6
2026	3	1	2	33%	98.6
2025	2	1	0	50%	93.2
CNL	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	5	2	2	40%	98.6
Sprint	4	2	2	50%	98.6
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 DEL 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 42 ★06-24 DEL 4 Furlongs :46.20 B 91 ★05-30 DEL 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 69 ★05-07 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 60 ★04-22 OP 5 Furlongs :59.80 H G 92 04-15 OP 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 72

SIREYaupon 88 97%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-01 25d	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	89	2	4	2.5		96	75	64	94	90	89	0.4	Julio Hernandez
2026-06-06 24d	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	1	6	0.0	F	83	75	72	99	105	88	3.5	Julio Hernandez
2026-05-13 242d·9.7×	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	2	4	2.8		73	93	102	94	85	88	1.6	Paco Lopez
2025-09-13 16d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	91	6	7	23.5	F	87	77	90	88	79	88	9.32	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-08-28	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	1	6	0.0		84	87	90	93	86	83	0.4	Jaime Rodriguez

4 Slewperstitus

3F 122 lbs S

1.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.6

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig99 0 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class92.3 +4.1 vs race +7.0 gap

MC18.1% fair 9-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced90.7 +0.3 vs today

Pace EP83.8 best 97.5

Pace LP84.8 best 99.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockJevian Toledoκ 0.18

TrnW. Bailesκ 0.25

J×T31 · 26% win · 71% ITM

Angles

Jevian Toledo / W. Bailes 22% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	3	5	1	33%	100.9
2026	3	1	2	0	33%	100.9
2025	6	2	3	1	33%	99.1
CNL	4	1	3	0	25%	99.1
Dirt	8	3	4	1	38%	100.9
Sprint	9	3	5	1	33%	100.9
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-24 CNL 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 90 ◆Slam Notion·102 ★07-05 CNL 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 73 06-27 CNL 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 74 ★06-18 LRL 4 Furlongs :48.20 H 80 ★05-22 LRL 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 76 ◆Golden Rocket·94 05-15 LRL 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 68

SIREGreat Notion 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 42d	CNL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	2	5	0.1	F	82	93	99	97	96	92	1.1	Jevian Toledo
2026-05-30 35d	LRL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	88	1	6	0.0		90	85	79	101	99	92	2.4	Jevian Toledo
2026-04-25 119d·2.8×	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	2	6	3.8	S	68	nan	77	95	82	92	1.6	Jevian Toledo
2025-12-27 21d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	93	3	3	8.5	F	93	90	94	91	74	93	1.7	Jevian Toledo
2025-12-06 56d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	2	5	1.8		98	95	89	96	88	92	1.6	Jevian Toledo
2025-10-11 49d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	86	1	9	0.0	S	83	92	86	97	87	91	0.8	Jevian Toledo
2025-08-23 21d	CNL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	88	2	5	4.5	S	104	nan	68	85	76	91	2.9	J.G. Torrealba
2025-08-02 24d	CNL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	87	2	4	0.2		81	79	92	99	96	90	1.1	J.G. Torrealba
2025-07-09	CNL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	1	10	0.0		87	83	86	98	92	85	9.1	J.G. Torrealba

1 Celebrity Quest

3F 118 lbs P

0.4%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.3

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig97 -2 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class90.0 +1.8 vs race +6.9 gap

MC9.9% fair 9-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced87.1 -3.3 vs today

Pace EP80.9 best 89.1

Pace LP80.8 best 94.2

Energy0.53

Connections

JockManuel Francoκ 0.21was Vicente Del-Cid · +0.4

TrnBrad Coxκ 0.69was Thomas Amoss · +3.0

J×T258 · 29% win · 62% ITM

Angles

Manuel Franco / Brad Cox 29% -2% Brad Cox: off layoff (60d+) 26% -22% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	4	2	50%	93.3
2026	0	0	—	—
2025	4	2	50%	93.3
CNL	0	0	—	—
Dirt	4	2	50%	93.3
Sprint	4	2	50%	93.3
Wet	1	1	100%	92.1

WORKS 07-24 IND 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 72 07-18 IND 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 47 07-03 IND 5 Furlongs 1:00.20 B 75 ★06-23 IND 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 78 06-13 CDT 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 56 06-05 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 48

SIRENyquist 86 93%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-12-22 52d	DED	7.5f	dirt	Wet Fast	Alw	84	1	6	0.0		73	85	89	92	92	91	0.4	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-10-31 41d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	5	7	8.2	F	77	88	94	90	81	90	6.69	Jaime Torres
2025-09-20 20d	PRX	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	1	8	0.0	F	87	90	85	93	93	87	0.4	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-08-31	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	5	12	6.8	S	89	88	57	93	83	87	5.1	Luis Saez

7 Shilling

3F 122 lbs EP

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig95 -4 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class90.4 +2.2 vs race +4.9 gap

MC7.1% fair 12-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced92.0 +1.6 vs today

Pace EP84.2 best 98.5

Pace LP76.4 best 106.6

Energy0.54

Connections

JockEmmanuel Esquivelκ 0.1

TrnKenneth McPeekκ 0.62

J×T255 · 18% win · 49% ITM

Angles

Emmanuel Esquivel / Kenneth McPeek 18% -4% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	2	1	29%	96.0
2026	3	0	1	0%	95.7
2025	4	2	0	50%	96.0
CNL	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	7	2	1	29%	96.0
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	95.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 CNL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 46 07-04 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 57 06-29 CD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 67 05-30 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 62 05-24 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 68 05-16 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 60

SIREGlobal Campaign 82 72%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 33d	PRM	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	4	4	12.8	F	86	84	75	90	90	91	2.8	Emmanuel Esquivel
2026-06-07 121d·3.7×	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	96	3	6	6.2	F	74	94	107	96	100	90	48.43	Emmanuel Esquivel
2026-02-06 62d	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	89	4	6	11.8		98	70	28	91	88	91	0.9	Christopher Elliott
2025-12-06 30d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G2	92	4	6	12.2		85	78	70	96	95	92	6.39	Christopher Elliott
2025-11-06 21d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	1	5	0.0	F	91	nan	91	96	94	88	7.29	Christopher Elliott
2025-10-16 26d	BAQ	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	1	8	0.0	F	79	100	125	96	90	85	18.57	Christopher Elliott
2025-09-20	BAQ	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	4	9	7.8	F	79	90	99	96	82	86	4.15	Christopher Elliott

8 Raspberry

3F 118 lbs EP

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.0

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 -7 vs par

Needs +12~<1% run that

Class87.5 -0.7 vs race +5.0 gap

MC3.5% fair 30-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced87.1 -3.3 vs today

Pace EP87.2 best 103.1

Pace LP76.1 best 97.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJareth Loveberryκ 0.08

TrnD. Whitworth Beckmanκ 0.53

J×T39 · 15% win · 38% ITM

Angles

Jareth Loveberry / D. Whitworth Beckman 14% +15% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% D. Whitworth Beckman: 2nd off layoff 10% -65%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	1	2	1	17%	92.0
2026	3	1	0	1	33%	91.3
2025	3	0	2	0	0%	92.0
CNL	1	0	0	1	0%	91.0
Dirt	5	1	2	1	20%	92.0
Sprint	4	1	2	1	25%	92.0
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 CNL 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 38 07-02 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 58 06-21 CD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 42 06-14 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 40 06-07 CD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 44 05-31 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 ◆Cheddar·80

SIREMedaglia D'Oro 87 95%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 64d	CNL	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	3	4	2.5		86	72	26	91	81	87	0.6	Jareth Loveberry
2026-05-06 46d	IND	6.0f	dirt	Good	MSW	81	1	6	0.0		103	94	81	91	90	87	0.4	Jaime Torres
2026-03-21 112d·2.4×	FG	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	9	12	12.5		96	82	79	79	86	90	4.0	Jareth Loveberry
2025-11-29 29d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	93	9	9	28.8	F	84	91	97	84	71	91	39.32	Luis Saez
2025-10-31 43d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	2	11	5.2	F	89	87	85	92	92	92	4.01	Jaime Torres
2025-09-18	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	2	10	0.5	F	97	89	83	92	84	88	7.82	Jose Ortiz