CNL 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 T R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 T R11 T R12 T

Purse $150,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Inner turf) For Fillies And Mares, Three Years Old And Upward. No nomination fee. $375 to enter and $375 to start. Supplementary nomination of $1,500 (which includes entry and starting fees) may be made at the time of entry. $150,000, with 60% to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weights: Three year olds 122 Lbs. Older 126 Lbs. Non-winners of an open sweepstakes on the turf since January 1, allowed 2 Lbs.; of $45,000 on the turf in 2026, 4 Lbs. (maiden, claiming and starter races not considered). Starters and riders to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This race will be limited to fourteen (14) starters. In the event more than fourteen entrants pass through the entry box, preference will be given to graded stakes winners (in order I-II-III), then graded stakes placed (2nd or 3rd) in 2025-2026, then highest turf earnings in 2025-2026. Any horse excluded due to the aforementioned preference shall be refunded the entry fee and supplementary nomination fee, if applicable. Nominations closed Wednesday, July 15, 2026 with 34 nominations and 1 supplement. Trophy to the winning owner.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Roja	82% 1-5 / 1/1	58.4%	E	1st/1w	94 +3.5	101¹+3	101¹	101¹	—	L3★goldJ-0.6▼cls	14%	✓+4.1★PRIME3∠
2	G W's Girl	4% 25-1 / 15/1	4.8%	P	4th/1w	91 +0.6	89⁵-9	89⁶	93³	81³	L3★goldD→T	—	5∠
3	Lucy McGee	2% 50-1 / 12/1	4.6%	EP	2nd/2w	91 +1.2	89⁵-9	92⁵	92⁴	—	L2T-5.0J+0.5	—	⚠-3.42∠
4	She's a Tempest	2% 50-1 / 6/1	8.1%	EP	3rd/3w	95 +4.6	95³-3	95³	91⁶	85²	J+0.6▼cls	25%
6	Somnium	2% 30-1 / 15/1	4.2%	S	6th/3w	91 +0.7	92⁴-6	94⁴	92⁴	91¹	▲cls	11%	2∠
7	Saturday Flirt	8% 12-1 / 2/1	20.0%	S	5th/3w	95 +4.8	97²-1	97²	96²	79⁴	L1	30%	4∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 21.9s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS 1 97/95 Roja 3 » 100/101 Lucy McGee 4 »» 101/101 She's a Tempest 2 102/102 G W's Girl 7 C★ »» 94/117 Saturday Flirt 6 »» 98/108 Somnium

On the lead: 1, 3 · race sets up for closers

1 Roja ★ PRIME

4F 126 lbs E

82.2%

MODEL %

1-5

MODEL FAIR

+32.2

EDGE vs ML

1/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig101 +3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 98 vs par 98

Class93.6 +3.5 vs race +7.0 gap

MC45.6% fair 6-5

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced90.1 -2.3 vs today

Pace EP86.0 best 97.0

Pace LP81.8 best 95.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockManuel Francoκ 0.21was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -0.6

TrnH. Motionκ 0.55

J×T57 · 14% win · 49% ITM

Angles

Manuel Franco / H. Motion 20% +2% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	4	1	67%	100.7
2026	2	2	0	100%	100.7
2025	4	2	1	50%	97.8
CNL	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	5	4	1	80%	100.7
Sprint	6	4	1	67%	100.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-19 FAI Four Furlongs 50.40 b 47 ◆Warming·94 07-11 FAI Four Furlongs 49.60 b 58 ◆Gimme A Nother·96

SIREKarakontie (Jpn) 84 82%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-04 36d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	G2	95	1	9	0.0	S	—	—	—	101	108	92	5.72	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-04-29 291d·8.1×	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	1	9	0.0		92	79	65	98	94	90	0.9	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-07-12 27d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	1	7	0.0		93	89	74	97	88	88	0.7	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-06-15 21d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	91	2	9	0.1		82	88	91	98	92	85	1.3	Victor Carrasco
2025-05-25 44d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	1	9	0.0		97	97	95	96	94	82	1.4	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-04-11	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Good	MSW	88	6	9	12.8	F	84	85	89	88	89	80	7.62	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

7 Saturday Flirt

4F 122 lbs S

7.6%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-25.7

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig97 -1 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class94.9 +4.8 vs race +1.7 gap

MC20.3% fair 4-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced92.5 +0.1 vs today

Pace EP80.6 best 94.0

Pace LP86.5 best 117.1

Energy0.50

Connections

JockJohn Velazquezκ 0.24was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -0.3

TrnWesley Wardκ 0.59

J×T91 · 30% win · 59% ITM

Angles

John Velazquez / Wesley Ward 28% -14% Wesley Ward: off layoff (60d+) 24% -14% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	4	1	67%	96.7
2026	2	0	1	0%	95.6
2025	3	3	0	100%	96.7
CNL	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	5	3	1	60%	96.7
Sprint	6	4	1	67%	96.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-14 KEE Four Furlongs 50.60 b 37 07-07 KEE Four Furlongs 51.40 b 25 ★04-04 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 73 03-29 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 64

SIREMendelssohn 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-15 33d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	2	8	1.0	S	79	93	80	96	93	95	2.4	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-04-12 218d·2.4×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	G2	95	8	11	6.5	F	69	95	95	93	90	95	7.46	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-09-06 90d	KD	6.5f	turf	Good	Alw	92	1	12	0.0	F	81	84	71	97	103	96	4.72	Lanfranco Dettori
2025-06-08 53d	SAR	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	93	1	6	0.0		81	88	117	95	101	94	4.3	Junior Alvarado
2025-04-16 355d·3.9×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	1	12	0.0	F	94	nan	90	95	92	92	2.74	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2024-04-26	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	1	11	0.0	F	84	83	81	92	83	87	1.06	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

2 G W's Girl

4F 122 lbs P

4.1%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -9 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class90.7 +0.6 vs race -1.9 gap

MC3.0% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced91.9 -0.5 vs today

Pace EP85.3 best 101.9

Pace LP88.7 best 102.2

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJareth Loveberryκ 0.08was Angel Cruz · +0.0

TrnGreg Comptonκ 0.25

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Greg Compton: first-time turf 3% -65%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	3	1	2	30%	98.4
2026	2	0	0	1	0%	92.6
2025	6	2	1	1	33%	98.4
CNL	1	0	0	1	0%	92.5
Turf	2	1	0	0	50%	88.8
Sprint	10	3	1	2	30%	98.4
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	83.3

WORKS 07-25 DEL 4 Furlongs :52.80 B 19 07-11 DEL 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 46 06-13 DEL 3 Furlongs :39.00 B 30 ★05-26 DEL 3 Furlongs :36.80 B G 49 ◆Missy Moosey·81 05-16 DEL 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 45 05-07 DEL 4 Furlongs :53.00 B 19

SIREMunnings 84 87%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-17 18d	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	3	5	1.8		75	85	86	93	92	91	1.8	Angel Cruz
2026-05-30 252d·6.0×	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	93	4	7	4.0	S	97	102	102	91	83	91	12.0	Julio Hernandez
2025-09-20 42d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	2	5	8.0		82	85	98	97	98	92	1.4	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-08-09 85d·2.0×	CNL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	3	8	8.8	F	87	99	102	92	92	93	3.1	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-05-16 40d	PIM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	93	4	11	5.8	S	102	88	81	93	83	94	3.7	Paco Lopez
2025-04-06 41d	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	G2	94	4	5	23.5	F	78	nan	100	83	55	96	1.5	Jose Ortiz
2025-02-24 51d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	1	7	0.0	F	91	88	81	98	96	95	0.3	Francisco Arrieta
2025-01-04 90d·2.1×	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	1	9	0.0	F	74	83	78	98	97	94	5.4	Francisco Arrieta
2024-10-06 17d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	90	5	12	2.0	F	98	95	104	89	87	88	34.13	Jose Ortiz
2024-09-19	DEL	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	1	8	0.0	S	98	81	58	87	70	83	9.2	Julio Hernandez

6 Somnium

4F 122 lbs S

2.5%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.8

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 -6 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class90.8 +0.7 vs race +1.7 gap

MC8.4% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced89.6 -2.8 vs today

Pace EP87.8 best 97.7

Pace LP87.1 best 108.4

Energy0.49

Connections

JockJevian Toledoκ 0.18

TrnElizabeth Merrymanκ 0.16

J×T19 · 11% win · 58% ITM

Angles

Jevian Toledo / Elizabeth Merryman 16% -49% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	4	2	2	31%	94.0
2026	4	2	0	0	50%	93.7
2025	7	2	1	1	29%	94.0
CNL	1	0	0	0	0%	84.7
Turf	11	4	2	1	36%	94.0
Sprint	13	4	2	2	31%	94.0
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

SIREStreet Boss 83 77%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-12 28d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	1	7	0.0	F	96	88	87	92	95	90	2.1	Jevian Toledo
2026-05-15 13d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	4	8	2.0	S	88	86	108	94	92	89	17.4	Jose Ortiz
2026-05-02 15d	PEN	5.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	86	1	10	0.0	S	95	92	108	87	72	89	0.8	Jomar Torres
2026-04-17 147d·5.2×	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	8	8	10.5	S	98	82	69	88	81	90	10.72	Manuel Franco
2025-11-21 41d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	3	9	1.0	F	86	83	84	89	85	89	3.8	J.G. Torrealba
2025-10-11 23d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	G3	92	4	10	2.8		87	92	84	94	96	86	70.68	Katie Davis
2025-09-18 20d	PEN	5.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	86	1	8	0.0	F	63	91	108	88	83	85	0.7	Jomar Torres
2025-08-29 35d	PEN	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	78	1	5	0.0	S	82	89	94	90	80	86	0.1	Jomar Torres
2025-07-25 44d	CNL	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	6	7	6.0	S	89	79	72	85	74	86	1.6	Ben Curtis
2025-06-11	DEL	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	4	8	1.8	F	78	nan	91	87	85	86	1.8	Jevian Toledo

4 She's a Tempest

5M 122 lbs EP

2.0%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.3

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig95 -3 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class94.7 +4.6 vs race +0.6 gap

MC18.6% fair 9-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced92.2 -0.2 vs today

Pace EP87.2 best 101.0

Pace LP81.8 best 101.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockPaco Lopezκ 0.23was Luis Saez · +0.6

TrnEddie Kenneallyκ 0.43

J×T4 · 25% win · 75% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	16	3	3	4	19%	96.8
2026	5	1	1	1	20%	95.3
2025	4	1	0	0	25%	93.6
CNL	0	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	9	2	1	1	22%	95.3
Sprint	11	2	3	2	18%	95.9
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	92.7

WORKS 07-17 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 42 05-24 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 47 05-07 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 58

SIREConnect 83 77%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 25d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	95	3	9	1.0		101	88	69	91	88	94	14.17	Luis Saez
2026-06-03 42d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	94	4	8	4.2	F	94	81	84	92	91	94	13.49	Ben Curtis
2026-04-22 46d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	93	5	10	3.8		88	86	78	91	78	93	18.98	Ben Curtis
2026-03-07 29d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	1	9	0.0	F	nan	nan	101	93	107	93	3.8	Ben Curtis
2026-02-06 246d·5.9×	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	2	8	1.5		87	78	83	95	105	93	12.2	Ben Curtis
2025-06-05 41d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	92	5	10	3.0	F	94	72	27	91	98	92	3.99	Jaime Torres
2025-04-25 42d	KEE	8.0f	turf	Yielding	Alw	92	6	12	5.2		76	nan	80	93	80	92	16.02	Junior Alvarado
2025-03-14 20d	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	1	10	0.0		73	80	89	94	97	91	2.8	Junior Alvarado
2025-02-22 71d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	89	4	10	2.5		76	nan	76	92	96	90	8.4	Junior Alvarado
2024-12-13	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	5	7	6.2		90	78	76	94	95	89	3.55	Dylan Davis

3 Lucy McGee

4F 124 lbs EP

1.6%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.1

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -9 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class91.3 +1.2 vs race -2.4 gap

MC4.0% fair 25-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced87.8 -4.6 vs today

Pace EP88.8 best 99.9

Pace LP86.4 best 101.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockSamuel Marinκ 0.22was Mario Gutierrez · +0.5

TrnV H Oliverκ 0.0was Victoria Oliver · -5.0

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	2	2	2	20%	92.5
2026	2	2	0	0	100%	92.2
2025	6	0	2	2	0%	92.5
CNL	0	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	8	2	2	2	25%	92.5
Sprint	10	2	2	2	20%	92.5
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 51 04-09 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 61 03-27 PAY 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 77 03-20 PAY 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 54 03-13 PAY 5 Furlongs 1:04.00 B 44 ◆Marcinkowski·84 ★03-06 PAY 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 75 ◆Marcinkowski·84

SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 85d·3.3×	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	91	1	10	0.0		—	—	—	92	91	90	9.18	Mario Gutierrez
2026-04-16 218d·8.4×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	1	10	0.0		90	89	94	90	83	89	2.79	Luis Saez
2025-09-10 18d	KD	6.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	6	12	7.0	F	94	nan	78	86	82	90	8.02	Jaime Torres
2025-08-23 40d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	4	10	4.5	F	89	88	101	87	80	90	2.18	Jaime Torres
2025-07-14 19d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	2	11	1.0	F	100	81	91	89	88	90	2.26	Jaime Torres
2025-06-25 18d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	3	11	0.5		98	nan	86	89	91	89	2.54	Sophie Doyle
2025-06-07 23d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	2	10	0.5	F	86	82	83	87	82	88	5.44	Sophie Doyle
2025-05-15 297d·11.4×	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	3	12	0.8	F	89	86	82	92	92	84	41.96	Sophie Doyle
2024-07-22 26d	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	6	7	14.2		86	67	69	82	75	89	8.19	Jaime Torres
2024-06-26	CD	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	6	11	6.0	F	81	nan	86	86	76	88	14.44	Jaime Torres