TRACKS · 2026-08-01 ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
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R11 Arlington Million S. (Grade I)
CNL 2026-08-01 One And One Fourth Miles OUTER TURF
96
strength
+1.1 fair
98
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.4s / par 22.4
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 89.6–97.8
Purse $1,000,000. One And One Fourth Miles. (Outer turf) (Rail at 60 Feet) For Three Year Olds And Upward.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Dresden Row 7% 12-1 / 7/2 14.0% P 2nd/1w 94 -0.4 954-3 913 936 737 T+2.7J-0.8rte→spr 13% ✓+1.92∠
2 Layabout 2% 50-1 / 20/1 3.2% P 1st/1w 93 -1.8 907-8 887 901 L2rte→spr▲cls 23% 4∠
3 Fort Washington 3% 30-1 / 5/1 9.5% C 7th/1w 96 +1.1 981+0 954 893 L3J+0.5rte→spr 11% ✓+1.63∠
4 Integration 32% 2-1 / 4/1 23.0% P 6th/1w 99 +4.3 972-1 991 835 rte→spr▼cls 3% 1∠
5 Burnham Square 7% 12-1 / 5/2 17.2% S 4th/2w 99 +3.7 936-5 954 816 rte→spr▲cls 20% 2∠
6 Test Score 35% 9-5 / 9/2 23.0% P 3rd/2w 99 +3.7 945-4 922 972 901 L3★goldrte→spr▼cls 14% ✓+1.6★PRIME2∠
8 Gran Oriente 14% 6-1 / 10/1 10.0% S 5th/3w 95 -0.0 963-2 951 963 844 J+0.8rte→spr▲cls 0% ✓+1.92∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.4s par 22.4 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 HOLDS 99/106 Layabout 1 98/85 Dresden Row 6 LP » 91/117 Test Score 5 » 94/99 Burnham Square 8 »» 92/104 Gran Oriente 4 LP 91/118 Integration 3 96/110 Fort Washington
6 Test Score ★ PRIME
4C 126 lbs P
34.7%
MODEL %
9-5
MODEL FAIR
+16.5
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig94 -4 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class98.6 +3.7 vs race -4.7 gap
MC10.4% fair 9-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.23
Faced96.5 +0.5 vs today
Pace EP82.6 best 91.1
Pace LP89.7 best 117.4
Energy0.49
Connections
JockManuel Francoκ 0.21
TrnH. Motionκ 0.55
J×T57 · 14% win · 49% ITM
Angles
Manuel Franco / H. Motion 20% +2% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1444329%97.2
2026 311033%97.2
2025 721329%97.2
CNL 0000
Turf 1444329%97.2
Sprint 10100%91.8
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-19 FAI Five Furlongs 1:02.20 b 64 ◆Gimme A Nother·96 07-10 FAI Five Furlongs 1:02.80 b 52 ◆Without·93 04-24 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 67 ◆Heading·88 04-14 KEE 4 Furlongs :52.60 B 43 ◆Soleil Volant·94 04-05 PMM 5 Furlongs 1:04.05 B 50 03-27 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.70 B 52 ◆Soleil Volant·94
SIRELookin At Lucky 83 78%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-06 35d SAR 9.5f turf Firm G1 98 2 9 0.5 F 91 nan 89 97 111 98 15.5 Manuel Franco
2026-05-02 98d CD 9.0f turf Firm G1 98 8 9 16.5 91 83 81 91 94 99 4.72 Manuel Franco
2026-01-24 56d GP 9.0f turf Firm G1 96 1 12 0.0 80 83 83 95 99 98 7.6 Manuel Franco
2025-11-29 35d DMR 9.0f turf Firm G1 94 3 8 0.5 70 95 117 89 85 98 0.8 Juan Hernandez
2025-10-25 56d SA 9.0f turf Firm G2 97 1 5 0.0 89 93 108 93 92 98 0.6 Juan Hernandez
2025-08-30 28d KD 10.5f turf Firm G3 96 4 12 4.0 94 99 98 2.91 Manuel Franco
2025-08-02 91d SAR 9.5f turf Firm G1 97 3 9 0.5 86 92 85 97 103 98 2.65 Manuel Franco
2025-05-03 26d CD 8.5f turf Good G1 96 2 14 1.2 87 88 82 94 99 98 5.9 Manuel Franco
2025-04-07 65d KEE 8.5f turf Good G3 94 1 12 0.0 F 80 75 95 96 92 95 9.74 Manuel Franco
2025-02-01 GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 91 3 7 2.0 F 92 93 88 92 95 95 1.8 Tyler Gaffalione
4 Integration
6H 122 lbs P
32.4%
MODEL %
2-1
MODEL FAIR
+12.4
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig97 -1 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class99.2 +4.3 vs race -2.0 gap
MC20.2% fair 4-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.26
Faced95.8 -0.2 vs today
Pace EP81.3 best 90.7
Pace LP89.8 best 118.1
Energy0.49
Connections
JockJohn Velazquezκ 0.24
TrnClaude McGaughey IIIκ 0.66
J×T34 · 3% win · 41% ITM
Angles
John Velazquez / Claude McGaughey III 15% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1864333%99.1
2026 310133%98.7
2025 50310%98.9
CNL 531160%99.1
Turf 1864333%99.1
Sprint 0000
Wet 210150%99.1
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 66 07-19 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.00 B 84 ◆Protect And Defend·92 07-10 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.66 B 57 07-02 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.54 B 66 06-26 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.65 B 38 05-30 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.16 B 69
SIREQuality Road 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-06 30d SAR 9.5f turf Firm G1 98 5 9 1.8 F 91 86 74 99 110 98 10.6 John Velazquez
2026-05-07 29d BAQ 9.5f turf Firm AOC 94 1 5 0.0 81 79 89 98 101 99 0.95 John Velazquez
2026-04-08 242d·3.9× KEE 8.5f turf Firm Alw 93 3 7 3.2 70 96 118 95 92 100 1.06 John Velazquez
2025-08-09 62d CNL 10.0f turf Firm G1 96 3 7 1.2 83 84 97 96 106 100 0.6 John Velazquez
2025-06-08 36d SAR 9.0f turf Good G1 97 2 8 0.1 85 96 99 99 86 100 4.1 John Velazquez
2025-05-03 22d CD 9.0f turf Good G1 97 7 10 2.8 81 72 66 93 95 100 3.44 Lanfranco Dettori
2025-04-11 76d KEE 8.0f turf Good G1 96 2 7 4.2 95 84 nan 97 91 100 3.1 Lanfranco Dettori
2025-01-25 77d GP 9.0f turf Firm G1 96 2 12 0.2 F 82 81 76 98 109 99 3.8 Lanfranco Dettori
2024-11-09 63d AQU 11.0f turf Firm G2 95 1 9 0.0 S 81 92 109 97 109 99 1.25 Flavien Prat
2024-09-07 KD 12.0f turf Firm G2 95 4 9 4.0 102 109 121 98 105 98 1.07 Kendrick Carmouche
8 Gran Oriente
5H 122 lbs S
13.7%
MODEL %
6-1
MODEL FAIR
+4.6
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig96 -2 vs par
Needs +2~30% run that
Class94.9 -0.0 vs race +1.2 gap
MC16.8% fair 5-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.17
Faced93.8 -2.2 vs today
Pace EP84.4 best 92.0
Pace LP84.2 best 104.1
Energy0.50
Connections
JockPaco Lopezκ 0.23was Rasheed Hughes · +0.8
TrnSaffie Joseph, Jr.κ 0.47
J×T5 · 0% win · 20% ITM
Angles
Paco Lopez / Saffie Joseph, Jr. 29% +63% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 740057%97.3
2026 640067%97.3
2025 10000%89.7
CNL 0000
Turf 740057%97.3
Sprint 210050%95.3
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-24 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.65 B 64 ◆Langvad·96 07-17 PMM 3 Furlongs :39.45 B 22 ◆Indy Bay·103 06-26 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.90 B 36 ◆Spirit Doll·95 06-19 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.25 B 56 ◆Luvumorgan·101 06-12 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.70 B 48 ◆Spirit Doll·95 05-08 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.45 B 49
SIREClassic Empire 84 87%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 49d GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 94 1 8 0.0 74 81 94 96 98 95 1.6 Rasheed Hughes
2026-05-16 43d GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 93 1 8 0.0 92 90 86 97 104 94 3.2 Rasheed Hughes
2026-04-03 20d SA 9.0f turf Firm AOC 95 1 6 0.0 90 93 70 96 98 94 30.6 Armando Ayuso
2026-03-14 50d SADH 6.5f turf Firm G3 94 5 6 3.2 F 87 89 104 95 87 95 6.4 Armando Ayuso
2026-01-23 12d SADH 6.5f turf Firm AOC 93 1 4 0.0 F 92 84 79 95 100 95 8.9 Armando Ayuso
2026-01-11 71d SA 8.0f turf Firm AOC 91 10 10 8.2 F 83 78 79 92 93 102 3.9 Hector Berrios
2025-11-01 DMR 8.0f turf Firm G1 101 11 13 5.8 F 87 80 104 90 95 101 115.1 Hector Berrios
1 Dresden Row
5H 122 lbs P
7.2%
MODEL %
12-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.0
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig95 -3 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class94.5 -0.4 vs race +0.4 gap
MC16.2% fair 5-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.23
Faced91.9 -4.1 vs today
Pace EP85.1 best 97.6
Pace LP72.7 best 85.0
Energy0.49
Connections
JockTyler Gaffalioneκ 0.19was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -0.8
TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64was Anthony Sciametta, Jr. · +2.7
J×T31 · 13% win · 35% ITM
Angles
Tyler Gaffalione / Todd Pletcher 18% -17% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1885544%99.7
2026 320167%95.4
2025 512220%97.3
CNL 0000
Turf 621333%95.4
Sprint 521240%95.6
Wet 10010%91.5
WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.47 B 50 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.50 B 41 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 60 06-05 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 44 05-09 CD 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 74 05-01 CD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 35
SIRELord Nelson 83 80%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 37d CD 8.5f turf Good G2 96 3 9 1.2 98 83 48 93 96 93 3.55 Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-05-21 43d CD 8.5f turf Firm AOC 93 1 8 0.0 F 76 75 85 95 103 91 1.64 Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-04-08 151d·4.1× KEE 8.5f turf Firm Alw 93 1 7 0.0 78 82 82 95 95 90 2.29 Flavien Prat
2025-11-08 20d WO 9.0f synthetic Fast G3 90 1 10 0.0 F 95 78 71 96 100 89 6.7 Ryan Munger
2025-10-19 29d WO 8.5f synthetic Fast AOC 88 3 4 12.0 94 77 56 96 95 91 0.25 Ryan Munger
2025-09-20 49d WO 8.5f synthetic Fast G3 90 2 8 0.2 83 93 83 97 100 91 1.1 Ryan Munger
2025-08-02 35d WO 8.5f synthetic Fast G3 89 2 7 2.0 S 93 75 64 94 96 91 0.9 Ryan Munger
2025-06-28 196d·5.3× WO 6.0f turf Good G2 91 3 6 3.2 100 nan 89 91 87 92 8.7 Ryan Munger
2024-12-14 28d TP 8.5f synthetic Fast Stk 94 2 12 0.1 F 79 80 84 96 109 90 4.73 Martin Garcia
2024-11-16 WO 9.0f synthetic Fast G2 90 2 8 1.2 F 61 68 41 99 108 90 2.1 Ryan Munger
5 Burnham Square
4G 124 lbs S
7.2%
MODEL %
12-1
MODEL FAIR
-21.4
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig93 -5 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class98.6 +3.7 vs race -5.3 gap
MC11.9% fair 7-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.25
Faced94.2 -1.8 vs today
Pace EP84.2 best 94.4
Pace LP81.0 best 99.1
Energy0.48
Connections
JockBrian Hernandez, Jr.κ 0.13
TrnIan Wilkesκ 0.47
J×T70 · 20% win · 47% ITM
Angles
Brian Hernandez, Jr. / Ian Wilkes 13% -10% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1354138%104.0
2026 431075%95.0
2025 612017%104.0
CNL 0000
Turf 532060%95.7
Sprint 10100%95.3
Wet 10000%100.4
WORKS 07-19 SKY Four Furlongs 48.80 b 62 07-12 SKY Four Furlongs 50.42 b 46 03-20 PMM 5 Furlongs :59.55 B 64 03-12 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.45 B 67
SIRELiam'S Map 85 91%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-13 28d CD 11.0f turf Firm Stk 93 1 8 0.0 S 87 nan 76 95 100 98 0.12 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-05-16 28d CD 12.0f turf Good G3 94 1 6 0.0 S 94 78 nan 92 100 98 0.23 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-04-18 49d KEE 12.0f turf Firm G2 95 1 11 0.0 S 92 92 99 95 94 98 1.28 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-02-28 182d·4.4× GP 8.5f turf Firm AOC 93 2 12 2.2 84 88 69 94 99 98 3.2 Edgard Zayas
2025-08-30 42d KD 10.5f turf Firm G3 96 2 12 0.1 96 102 97 13.54 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-07-19 41d MTH 9.0f dirt Fast G1 95 5 8 8.5 F 77 81 83 102 112 98 10.2 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-06-08 36d CD 8.5f dirt Fast G3 98 2 4 0.5 S nan nan 92 104 107 97 2.65 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-05-03 63d CD 10.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) G1 96 6 19 10.5 F 60 76 106 100 101 95 19.65 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-03-01 28d GP 8.5f dirt Fast G2 94 4 6 3.0 F 100 87 100 103 108 94 1.9 Edgard Zayas
2025-02-01 GP 8.5f dirt Fast G3 91 1 7 0.0 F 93 92 73 102 103 91 4.3 Edgard Zayas
3 Fort Washington
7H 122 lbs C
2.8%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.9
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig98 0 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class96.0 +1.1 vs race +1.8 gap
MC18.3% fair 9-2
ConfTIGHT σα 0.18
Faced95.4 -0.6 vs today
Pace EP80.2 best 95.5
Pace LP87.6 best 109.7
Energy0.48
Connections
JockJavier Castellanoκ 0.25was Junior Alvarado · +0.5
TrnClaude McGaughey IIIκ 0.66
J×T9 · 11% win · 44% ITM
Angles
Javier Castellano / Claude McGaughey III 15% -33% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 2973724%100.7
2026 410025%98.1
2025 430075%100.7
CNL 210150%97.6
Turf 2973724%100.7
Sprint 0000
Wet 10000%74.3
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.40 B 72 07-19 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.60 B 44 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.49 B 56 06-16 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.25 B 60 06-08 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.24 B 64 05-31 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.21 B 53
SIREWar Front 87 95%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 42d CD 8.5f turf Good G2 96 7 9 4.8 86 102 91 95 93 95 10.09 Junior Alvarado
2026-05-16 77d LRL 9.0f turf Firm G3 93 1 5 0.0 S 73 91 110 98 98 94 2.9 Junior Alvarado
2026-02-28 35d GP 8.5f turf Firm G3 96 4 8 4.0 F 95 89 102 98 105 94 5.4 Junior Alvarado
2026-01-24 168d·3.4× GP 9.0f turf Firm G1 96 6 12 2.5 52 78 64 97 97 92 13.2 Junior Alvarado
2025-08-09 84d CNL 10.0f turf Firm G1 96 1 7 0.0 96 94 94 98 107 94 5.7 Junior Alvarado
2025-05-17 77d PIM 9.0f turf Good G3 96 1 9 0.0 S 87 84 98 101 77 97 5.0 Junior Alvarado
2025-03-01 35d GP 8.5f turf Firm G3 96 1 7 0.0 82 84 85 98 101 97 5.5 Junior Alvarado
2025-01-25 35d GP 9.0f turf Firm G1 96 5 12 2.2 F 90 86 92 99 107 96 39.6 Junior Alvarado
2024-12-21 49d GP 9.0f turf Firm G2 96 2 9 0.2 82 78 58 97 100 95 11.6 John Velazquez
2024-11-02 BAQ 8.0f turf Firm Stk 94 3 6 1.2 S 82 85 72 94 91 95 7.8 Eric Cancel
2 Layabout
4G 122 lbs P
2.0%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-2.8
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 -8 vs par
Needs +8~2% run that
Class93.1 -1.8 vs race -3.5 gap
MC6.2% fair 15-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.26
Faced92.7 -3.3 vs today
Pace EP82.6 best 98.7
Pace LP80.4 best 106.2
Energy0.50
Connections
JockKeith Asmussenκ 0.06
TrnPatrick Bianconeκ 0.65
J×T22 · 23% win · 50% ITM
Angles
Keith Asmussen / Patrick Biancone 17% +27% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Patrick Biancone: 2nd off layoff 13% +13% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1251042%94.2
2026 310033%93.1
2025 941044%94.2
CNL 0000
Turf 841050%94.2
Sprint 20000%82.6
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-25 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 38 ◆Haute Diva·95 07-16 PMM Five Furlongs 1:01.85 b 68 06-28 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 36 ◆Haute Diva·95 06-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 39 06-08 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.50 B 45 ◆Beach Gold·97 05-08 PMM 5 Furlongs 1:02.65 B 56 ◆Classic Of Course·100
SIRELaoban 83 74%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 126d·3.0× GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 94 7 8 10.0 74 101 106 88 89 95 3.0 Keith Asmussen
2026-02-28 35d GP 11.0f turf Firm G2 94 4 9 1.2 F 95 84 53 89 101 94 1.8 David Egan
2026-01-24 42d GP 12.0f turf Firm G3 93 1 12 0.0 F 99 91 76 93 109 92 6.0 David Egan
2025-12-13 42d GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 91 1 10 0.0 85 85 97 92 95 91 2.7 Junior Alvarado
2025-11-01 56d GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 91 2 11 0.5 F 68 89 71 94 107 90 3.3 Jonathan Ocasio
2025-09-06 35d KD 8.0f turf Good Stk 94 4 13 1.8 F 87 nan 85 94 98 88 21.83 Keith Asmussen
2025-08-02 43d GP 8.0f turf Firm Stk 90 1 7 0.0 75 nan 73 94 102 86 4.0 Jonathan Ocasio
2025-06-20 42d GP 8.0f turf Firm AOC 85 1 7 0.0 88 75 82 90 91 82 4.4 Jonathan Ocasio
2025-05-09 47d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Mdn 86 1 7 0.0 72 96 101 92 91 78 23.2 Jonathan Ocasio
2025-03-23 GP 7.0f dirt Fast Mdn 84 7 7 36.0 F 93 92 94 72 56 80 2.5 Irad Ortiz, Jr.