TRACKS · 2026-08-01 ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 T R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 T R11 T R12 T
R9 Secretariat S. (Grade II)
CNL 2026-08-01 One And One Sixteenth Miles INNER TURF
94
strength
+1.8 salty
98
win par
fig to beat
LONE SPEED
shape
front favored
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 23.7s / par 23.7
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 85.5–94.9
Purse $500,000. One And One Sixteenth Miles. (Inner turf) For Three Year Olds. No nomination fee. $1,250 to enter and $1,250 to start. Supplementary nomination of $5,000 (which includes entry and starting fees) may be made at the time of entry. $500,000; after payment of 1% to all owners of horses finishing sixth through last, 62% of the remaining purse shall be paid to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight: 123 Lbs. Non-winners of a grade I or II stakes at a mile or over on the turf in 2026 allowed 3 Lbs.; of a graded stakes at a mile or over on the turf in 2026, 5 Lbs. This event will be limited to fourteen (14) starters. Starters to be named through the entry box at the usual time of closing. Nominations closed Wednesday, July 15, 2026 with 27 nominations. Trophy to the winning owner. (If this race is taken off the turf it will be downgraded one grade level for this running only in accordance with American Graded Stakes Committee policy).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Turf Star 1% 99-1 / 6/1 7.5% P 6th/1w 95 +3.7 895-9 915 886 815 ▼cls 25% 2∠
2 Conducted 6% 15-1 / 6/1 9.5% P 3rd/1w 92 +0.4 922-6 933 905 787 L1T+1.1J+0.5▲cls 12% ✓+1.14∠
3 Supercharger 3% 30-1 / 7/2 12.0% C 7th/1w 93 +1.1 903-8 924 924 844 ★gold▲cls 0% 1∠
4 Fuzzbuster 18% 9-2 / 8/1 12.7% P 5th/1w 92 +0.3 868-12 1001 863 L3★goldT-5.0J+0.7D→T▲cls ⚠-1.35∠
5 Vino Solo 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.5% C 8th/1w 88 -3.3 877-11 896 867 1011 J-0.6▲cls ⚠-2.01∠
6 Infiltrate 66% 1-2 / 10/1 30.8% E 2nd/3w 96 +3.8 903-8 982 668 L1D→T▲cls 20% ★PRIME7∠
7 Street Beast 3% 30-1 / 8/1 6.5% E 1st/4w 94 +2.6 895-9 941 867 815 L1 0% 3∠
9 Alpyland 2% 30-1 / 9/5 18.5% P 4th/3w 98 +5.9 951-3 941 943 922 24% 2∠
Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 23.7s par 23.7 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 7 LS★ HOLDS »»» 99/96 Street Beast 6 »» 104/77 Infiltrate 2 114/91 Conducted 9 »» 126/96 Alpyland 4 99/108 Fuzzbuster 1 93/95 Turf Star 3 89/102 Supercharger 5 C★ 105/116 Vino Solo
On the lead: 7 · race sets up for front
6 Infiltrate ★ PRIME THIN DATA
3C 118 lbs E
65.7%
MODEL %
1-2
MODEL FAIR
+56.6
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 -8 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class95.5 +3.8 vs race -5.2 gap
MC11.1% fair 8-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.25
Faced88.3 -5.2 vs today
Pace EP83.4 best 103.7
Pace LP75.8 best 77.4
Energy0.53
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockTyler Gaffalioneκ 0.19
TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61
J×T402 · 20% win · 49% ITM
Angles
Tyler Gaffalione / Brendan Walsh 19% -4% Brendan Walsh: off layoff (60d+) 16% -14% Brendan Walsh: first-time turf 13% -23% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 321067%98.5
2026 0000
2025 321067%98.5
CNL 0000
Turf 0000
Route 211050%98.5
Wet 1100100%98.5
WORKS 09-19 Churchill Downs 5f:~ 1:00.6 nan 09-13 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49.8 nan 07-23 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 54 07-16 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 80 07-08 CD Four Furlongs 47.20 b 74 07-01 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48 nan
SIREOscar Performance 86 92%ile turf 18%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-11-21 41d CD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Alw 90 1 7 0.0 F 71 51 62 98 89 95 0.56 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-10-11 64d KEE 8.5f dirt Fast AOC 87 2 8 0.5 104 94 77 96 96 93 1.31 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-08-08 ELP 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 1 10 0.0 86 89 76 95 89 88 5.43 Tyler Gaffalione
4 Fuzzbuster
3C 118 lbs P
18.2%
MODEL %
9-2
MODEL FAIR
+7.1
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -12 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class92.0 +0.3 vs race -6.5 gap
MC5.7% fair 15-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.39
Faced88.4 -5.1 vs today
Pace EP84.6 best 99.4
Pace LP86.2 best 107.7
Energy0.52
Connections
JockJohn Velazquezκ 0.24was Mario Gutierrez · +0.7
TrnV H Oliverκ 0.0was Victoria Oliver · -5.0
Angles
3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 612317%100.0
2026 211050%100.0
2025 40130%97.9
CNL 0000
Turf 10100%91.0
Route 210150%100.0
Wet 210150%100.0
WORKS 11-04 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 47.6 nan 10-11 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 49.2 nan 07-24 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 68 07-18 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 71 07-10 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 49 nan 07-10 KEE Four Furlongs 49.00 b 56 ◆Tickin Time Blonde·93
SIRETiz The Law 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-25 20d CD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) MSW 90 1 8 0.0 F 77 86 95 100 106 92 1.78 Mario Gutierrez
2026-06-05 197d·5.8× CD 5.5f turf Firm MSW 87 2 10 2.0 F 91 102 91 1.88 Mario Gutierrez
2025-11-20 35d CD 8.0f dirt Muddy (Sealed) MSW 88 3 11 2.0 F 95 83 81 98 95 91 4.21 Cristian Torres
2025-10-16 34d KEE 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 3 8 3.0 F 73 84 108 98 103 90 4.78 Luis Saez
2025-09-12 21d CD 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 2 12 2.8 S 93 77 76 91 81 88 4.33 Declan Cannon
2025-08-22 ELP 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 3 11 6.2 99 78 91 93 86 88 10.27 Declan Cannon
2 Conducted
3C 118 lbs P
6.3%
MODEL %
15-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.0
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig92 -6 vs par
Needs +7~8% run that
Class92.1 +0.4 vs race -0.3 gap
MC17.9% fair 9-2
ConfTIGHT σα 0.25
Faced88.0 -5.5 vs today
Pace EP88.8 best 113.5
Pace LP77.2 best 91.1
Energy0.50
Connections
JockPaco Lopezκ 0.23was Hector Berrios · +0.5
TrnJose D'Angeloκ 0.31was O. Jauregui · +1.1
J×T26 · 12% win · 31% ITM
Angles
Jose D'Angelo: off layoff (60d+) 15% -37% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Paco Lopez / Jose D'Angelo 9% -69%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 420050%95.9
2026 0000
2025 420050%95.9
CNL 0000
Turf 320067%93.2
Route 320067%93.2
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-24 PMM 4 Furlongs :46.95 B 79 07-10 PMM 4 Furlongs :47.00 B G 81 06-30 PMM 4 Furlongs :46.80 B 84 06-19 PMM 3 Furlongs :34.95 B 56
SIREMendelssohn 83 80%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-10-31 27d DMR 8.0f turf Firm Stk 91 1 8 0.0 74 84 83 90 83 89 1.7 Hector Berrios
2025-10-04 27d SA 8.0f turf Firm MSW 85 1 11 0.0 F 100 85 91 93 94 88 2.2 Hector Berrios
2025-09-07 43d DMR 8.0f turf Firm G3 89 5 13 5.5 F 94 77 56 89 86 84 19.1 Mike Smith
2025-07-26 DMR 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 87 5 9 10.5 F 114 93 70 96 98 87 17.7 Assael Espinoza
3 Supercharger
3C 118 lbs C
2.8%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-19.4
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 -8 vs par
Needs +8~2% run that
Class92.8 +1.1 vs race -3.3 gap
MC12.4% fair 7-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.24
Faced88.1 -5.4 vs today
Pace EP80.5 best 88.7
Pace LP82.4 best 101.6
Energy0.49
Connections
JockManuel Francoκ 0.21was Jose Ortiz · -0.4
TrnCherie DeVauxκ 0.66
J×T14 · 0% win · 29% ITM
Angles
Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 521040%91.9
2026 421050%91.9
2025 10000%87.0
CNL 0000
Turf 421050%91.9
Route 521040%91.9
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-21 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 51 07-13 KEE Four Furlongs 48.40 b 65 ◆Taking Candy·97 07-06 KEE Four Furlongs 47.80 b 69 ◆Taking Candy·97 05-01 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 48 04-24 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 64 04-17 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 66
SIREConstitution 86 93%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-18 40d CD 9.0f turf Firm Alw 90 1 10 0.0 F 88 nan 81 92 100 91 2.2 Jose Ortiz
2026-05-09 36d CD 9.0f turf Firm MSW 88 1 12 0.0 F 89 93 92 91 103 90 4.39 Jose Ortiz
2026-04-03 76d KEE 8.0f turf Good MSW 88 2 12 4.5 72 94 88 87 81 91 9.75 Jose Ortiz
2026-01-17 49d TP 8.5f synthetic Fast MSW 86 4 12 0.5 F 77 96 102 89 84 90 5.01 Fernando De La Cruz
2025-11-29 CD 8.0f turf Firm MSW 88 6 11 4.5 S 79 79 55 87 75 88 9.24 Jose Ortiz
7 Street Beast
3C 118 lbs E
2.6%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.5
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -9 vs par
Needs +15~<1% run that
Class94.3 +2.6 vs race -5.3 gap
MC8.6% fair 10-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.28
Faced92.8 -0.7 vs today
Pace EP78.8 best 99.0
Pace LP80.9 best 95.6
Energy0.53
Connections
JockBrian Hernandez, Jr.κ 0.13was Luan Machado · -0.0
TrnBen Colebrookκ 0.36
J×T3 · 0% win · 0% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Ben Colebrook: off layoff (60d+) 16% +42% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 831038%94.5
2026 410025%90.8
2025 421050%94.5
CNL 0000
Turf 621033%94.5
Route 620033%94.5
Wet 0000
WORKS 12-24 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.8 nan 10-21 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 51 nan 10-14 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 51.8 nan 09-27 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 50.4 nan 07-12 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 47.4 nan 07-12 KEE Four Furlongs 47.40 b 79 ◆Percy'S Bar·101
SIREStreet Sense 84 88%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-02 29d CD 8.5f turf Firm G1 95 11 13 17.0 F 67 99 96 86 90 96 27.58 Luan Machado
2026-04-03 41d KEE 8.5f turf Good G3 93 4 11 1.0 F 53 61 49 91 87 93 6.55 Luan Machado
2026-02-21 35d TP 8.5f synthetic Fast Stk 92 11 11 39.0 F 77 99 92 72 54 96 1.89 Luan Machado
2026-01-17 78d·2.2× TP 8.0f synthetic Fast Stk 91 1 8 0.0 94 87 82 90 91 97 2.51 Luan Machado
2025-10-31 54d DMR 8.0f turf Firm G1 94 4 14 4.2 F 99 87 88 91 90 95 10.8 Luan Machado
2025-09-07 10d KD 8.0f turf Firm Stk 90 1 9 0.0 F 60 96 109 94 95 93 1.04 Luan Machado
2025-08-28 27d KD 6.5f turf Firm Alw 89 1 7 0.0 F 91 92 88 92 92 92 2.96 Luan Machado
2025-08-01 ELP 5.5f turf Firm MSW 88 2 11 1.8 84 90 79 92 86 88 6.25 Luan Machado
9 Alpyland
3G 120 lbs P
2.5%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-33.2
EDGE vs ML
9/5
M/L
Form
Proj Fig95 -3 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class97.6 +5.9 vs race -2.7 gap
MC27.9% fair 5-2
ConfTIGHT σα 0.17
Faced93.1 -0.4 vs today
Pace EP88.9 best 125.6
Pace LP77.2 best 96.1
Energy0.50
Connections
JockJavier Castellanoκ 0.25
TrnMark Casseκ 0.47
J×T122 · 24% win · 50% ITM
Angles
Javier Castellano / Mark Casse 19% +10% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1160255%96.1
2026 640167%96.1
2025 520140%94.1
CNL 0000
Turf 960267%96.1
Route 750171%96.1
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-24 CNL 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 55 06-19 CD 3 Furlongs :38.80 B 23 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 34 05-21 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 57 04-21 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 51 04-13 PMM 4 Furlongs :47.75 B 52
SIREVekoma 87 95%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 29d CD 8.5f turf Good Stk 93 1 7 0.0 126 80 59 94 95 97 0.84 Javier Castellano
2026-05-29 27d PEN 8.0f turf Firm G3 94 1 5 0.0 80 80 80 94 92 96 2.1 Javier Castellano
2026-05-02 56d CD 8.5f turf Firm G1 95 4 13 6.0 F 91 79 66 94 100 95 16.14 Javier Castellano
2026-03-07 35d TAM 8.0f turf Good Stk 91 1 8 0.0 88 89 76 94 89 94 1.8 Javier Castellano
2026-01-31 30d GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 93 3 7 1.0 F 87 96 96 94 97 93 1.2 John Velazquez
2026-01-01 25d GP 8.0f turf Firm Stk 91 1 9 0.0 F 107 95 101 96 106 91 3.9 John Velazquez
2025-12-07 56d GP 8.0f turf Firm AOC 88 1 7 0.0 88 92 95 91 89 90 1.2 Emisael Jaramillo
2025-10-12 32d KEE 5.5f turf Firm MSW 88 1 12 0.0 F 96 86 90 94 89 88 5.64 Florent Geroux
2025-09-10 30d KD 6.5f turf Firm MSW 86 3 12 2.2 F 85 nan 85 88 81 87 3.49 Joel Rosario
2025-08-11 ELP 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 6 11 4.2 F 90 92 93 86 82 83 6.7 Axel Concepcion
1 Turf Star
3C 118 lbs P
1.3%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.0
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -9 vs par
Needs +10~1% run that
Class95.4 +3.7 vs race -6.5 gap
MC11.9% fair 7-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.22
Faced93.3 -0.2 vs today
Pace EP85.3 best 92.7
Pace LP85.3 best 94.7
Energy0.50
Connections
JockJorge Ruizκ 0.21was Dylan Davis · -0.0
TrnH. Motionκ 0.55
J×T168 · 25% win · 52% ITM
Angles
Jorge Ruiz / H. Motion 24% -0% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 822025%90.8
2026 410025%90.8
2025 412025%89.9
CNL 0000
Turf 722029%90.8
Route 721029%90.8
Wet 0000
WORKS 03-13 PMM 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 65 03-08 PMM 3 Furlongs :39.95 B 31 ◆Laurelin·98
SIRECaravaggio 84 86%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 49d SAR 9.0f turf Firm G1 96 10 10 5.2 74 86 88 88 86 94 44.56 Dylan Davis
2026-05-16 56d LRL 8.0f turf Firm Stk 92 1 7 0.0 92 80 84 87 87 94 4.2 Jorge Ruiz
2026-03-21 49d TP 9.0f synthetic Fast G3 93 9 11 18.8 F 93 nan 86 87 90 96 16.87 John Velazquez
2026-01-31 92d GP 8.5f turf Firm Stk 93 6 7 5.2 F 92 84 90 91 93 96 3.9 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-10-31 26d DMR 8.0f turf Firm G1 94 6 14 5.8 F 91 87 95 89 89 94 48.1 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-10-05 38d KEE 8.5f turf Firm G2 90 2 12 1.2 F 90 nan 74 88 90 91 12.01 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-08-28 27d KD 8.0f turf Firm MSW 86 1 11 0.0 F 71 82 96 86 79 90 2.17 Lanfranco Dettori
2025-08-01 SAR 5.5f turf Firm MSW 87 2 8 3.5 68 96 94 90 79 87 2.65 Flavien Prat
5 Vino Solo
3G 118 lbs C
0.5%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.3
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -11 vs par
Needs +13~<1% run that
Class88.4 -3.3 vs race -1.7 gap
MC4.6% fair 20-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.21
Faced87.3 -6.2 vs today
Pace EP84.1 best 105.0
Pace LP88.9 best 115.7
Energy0.51
Connections
JockJorge Vargas, Jr.κ 0.02was Sara Hess · -0.6
TrnMario Lopezκ -0.02
Angles
Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 620033%89.1
2026 510020%89.1
2025 1100100%86.1
CNL 0000
Turf 620033%89.1
Route 620033%89.1
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-25 DEL 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 B 53 07-11 DEL 5 Furlongs 1:02.40 B 62 07-03 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 61 06-27 DEL 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 38 06-06 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 59 05-30 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 59
SIRESolomini 83 78%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-13 59d·2.3× DEL 8.5f turf Firm AOC 89 7 10 8.0 S 86 97 116 86 90 88 29.0 Sara Hess
2026-04-15 26d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Str Alw 87 6 10 11.2 F 93 86 97 84 81 90 8.3 Ubardo Casique
2026-03-20 13d TAM 8.5f turf Firm Str Alw 86 4 9 6.5 F 105 95 85 84 81 91 1.3 Ubardo Casique
2026-03-07 52d·2.0× TAM 8.0f turf Good Stk 91 6 8 5.8 70 84 91 89 83 90 44.1 Ubardo Casique
2026-01-14 19d TAM 8.5f turf Firm Str Alw 84 1 8 0.0 F 80 90 83 88 86 86 3.2 Ubardo Casique
2025-12-26 TAM 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 80 1 9 0.0 F 70 nan 77 86 79 81 60.1 Ubardo Casique