CNL 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

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▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 T R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 T R11 T R12 T

Purse $100,000. One Mile. For Three Year Olds. No nomination fee. $250 to enter and $250 to start. Supplementary nomination of $1,000 ( which includes entry and starting fees) may be made at the time of entry. $100,000, with 60% to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight: 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a sweepstakes allowed 2 Lbs.; non-winners of two races other than maiden or claiming, 4 Lbs. This race will be limited to fourteen (14) starters. In the event more than fourteen entrants pass through the entry box, preference will be given to stakes winners, then highest lifetime earnings. Any horse excluded due to the aforementioned preference shall be refunded the entry fee and supplementary nomination fee, if applicable. Nominations closed July 15, 2026 with 35 nominations and 1 supplement. Trophy to the winning owner.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Very Volatile	31% 2-1 / 20/1	14.9%	EP	1st/1w	87 -1.1	94²+0	96²	96¹	72⁶	L2▲cls	17%	⚠-2.4★VALUE4∠
3	Bravaro	33% 2-1 / 4/5	41.8%	P	3rd/1w	95 +7.1	96¹+2	98¹	95³	87⁴	L2spr→rte▼cls	0%	✓+3.4★PRIME4∠
4	Mister Monday Nite ✓	26% 3-1 / 15/1	13.7%	P	4th/1w	88 -0.4	94²+0	—	96¹	92³	spr→rte	44%	✓+4.5★VALUE
5	Exosome	0% 99-1 / 12/1	4.1%	S	7th/2w	92 +4.2	91⁵-3	92⁵	88⁶	74⁵	L1J+1.0▼cls	50%	✓+1.63∠
6	Pont Aven ✓	6% 15-1 / 15/1	5.4%	P	2nd/2w	89 +0.5	91⁵-3	96²	92⁴	97²	L2spr→rte	18%	3∠
7	Six Speed	1% 99-1 / 4/1	10.6%	P	5th/3w	91 +2.6	89⁷-5	88⁶	86⁷	69⁷	J-0.6spr→rte▼cls	19%	⚠-1.42∠
8	Sabino Canyon	2% 50-1 / 5/1	9.4%	S	6th/3w	89 +0.6	94²+0	94⁴	92⁴	99¹	L3★goldJ+0.9	0%	✓+1.53∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 24.1s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 LS★ VULN 95/100 Very Volatile 6 » 93/100 Pont Aven 3 C★ 99/119 Bravaro 4 97/88 Mister Monday Nite 7 »» 94/88 Six Speed 8 »» 121/83 Sabino Canyon 5 » 98/99 Exosome

On the lead: 1 · race sets up for front

3 Bravaro ★ PRIME

3C 122 lbs P

33.3%

MODEL %

2-1

MODEL FAIR

-22.3

EDGE vs ML

4/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig96 +2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 95 vs par 94

Class95.3 +7.1 vs race +0.7 gap

MC27.2% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced92.0 +3.2 vs today

Pace EP85.1 best 99.2

Pace LP85.0 best 118.8

Energy0.54

Connections

JockPaco Lopezκ 0.23was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -0.4

TrnSaffie Joseph, Jr.κ 0.47

J×T5 · 0% win · 20% ITM

Angles

Paco Lopez / Saffie Joseph, Jr. 29% +63% Saffie Joseph, Jr.: 2nd off layoff 20% -21% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	2	1	33%	98.1
2026	4	0	1	0%	98.1
2025	2	2	0	100%	97.5
CNL	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	6	2	1	33%	98.1
Route	4	1	1	25%	98.1
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.75 B 78 ◆Walley World·94 07-07 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.03 B 47 06-27 SAR 3 Furlongs :38.58 B 27 ★05-25 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 60 05-16 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 39 ◆Dr. Kapur·100 05-08 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 66

SIREUpstart 84 88%ile turf 10%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-03 60d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	4	9	9.5	F	99	98	75	95	100	97	0.88	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-04-04 35d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G2	92	4	12	2.5	F	89	90	87	94	102	94	7.79	Edwin Gonzalez
2026-02-28 28d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	94	4	9	11.0	F	84	95	119	96	104	95	9.9	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-01-31 98d·2.8×	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	92	2	6	5.8	F	93	92	67	98	98	94	5.9	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-10-25 27d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	89	1	6	0.0	F	76	78	92	98	106	91	0.78	Dylan Davis
2025-09-28	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	1	12	0.0	F	82	80	nan	95	93	86	5.32	Dylan Davis

1 Very Volatile ★ VALUE

3G 118 lbs EP

31.2%

MODEL %

2-1

MODEL FAIR

+26.4

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 0 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class87.1 -1.1 vs race +6.5 gap

MC18.9% fair 9-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.45

Faced84.7 -4.1 vs today

Pace EP85.7 best 95.5

Pace LP81.9 best 100.4

Energy0.56

Connections

JockJevian Toledoκ 0.18was Yedsit Hazlewood · -0.4

TrnGary Capuanoκ 0.6

J×T12 · 17% win · 75% ITM

Angles

Gary Capuano: 2nd off layoff 29% +17% Jevian Toledo / Gary Capuano 26% +28% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	4	2	50%	96.3
2026	1	1	100%	96.3
2025	3	1	33%	90.6
CNL	0	0	—	—
Dirt	4	2	50%	96.3
Route	1	1	100%	96.3
Wet	1	0	0%	87.4

WORKS ★07-28 DEL 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 49 ★07-21 DEL 1 Mile 1:43.60 B 07-08 DEL 1 Mile 1:46.00 B 06-13 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 56 ★06-04 DEL 5 Furlongs 1:00.20 B 90 ◆Big Cuddle·102 ★05-29 DEL 1 Mile 1:42.80 B

SIREVolatile 85 91%ile turf 13%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-21 176d·2.7×	LRL	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	1	6	0.0	S	92	78	51	96	92	84	2.6	Yedsit Hazlewood
2025-12-27 28d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	89	6	6	72.5		83	nan	100	64	42	85	3.2	Yedsit Hazlewood
2025-11-29 65d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	1	9	0.0		90	94	95	91	78	81	2.4	Yedsit Hazlewood
2025-09-25	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	80	6	7	5.8	S	96	84	87	87	66	80	0.7	Yedsit Hazlewood

4 Mister Monday Nite ★ VALUE THIN DATA

3G 118 lbs P

26.4%

MODEL %

3-1

MODEL FAIR

+20.1

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 0 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 94 vs par 94

Class87.8 -0.4 vs race +5.8 gap

MC15.5% fair 5-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced84.4 -4.4 vs today

Pace EP86.6 best 96.8

Pace LP82.6 best 88.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSamuel Marinκ 0.22was Mychel Sanchez · +0.4

TrnJamie Nessκ 0.36

J×T9 · 44% win · 100% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	3	2	67%	96.2
2026	3	2	67%	96.2
2025	0	0	—	—
CNL	1	1	100%	96.2
Dirt	3	2	67%	96.2
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-09 PRX 4 Furlongs :47.74 B 73 ◆Literary·93 05-05 PRX 4 Furlongs :48.43 B 67 ◆Bala De Plata·95 04-28 PRX 4 Furlongs :48.31 B 56 04-18 PRX 4 Furlongs :49.01 B G 52

SIREEnticed 84 82%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 19d	CNL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	87	1	6	0.0	F	97	93	88	96	97	85	5.2	Mychel Sanchez
2026-06-21 36d	PRX	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	1	8	0.0		95	nan	84	94	86	80	1.9	Mychel Sanchez
2026-05-16	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	6	10	12.0		88	nan	83	92	84	84	13.2	Mychel Sanchez

6 Pont Aven

3C 122 lbs P

5.5%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-0.8

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 94 vs par 94

Class88.7 +0.5 vs race +2.6 gap

MC9.3% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced84.4 -4.4 vs today

Pace EP84.0 best 93.5

Pace LP84.5 best 99.9

Energy0.53

Connections

JockMychel Sanchezκ 0.18

TrnMichael Trombettaκ 0.3

J×T294 · 18% win · 47% ITM

Angles

Mychel Sanchez / Michael Trombetta 17% -24% Michael Trombetta: 2nd off layoff 16% -21% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	3	1	2	38%	96.4
2026	5	3	1	1	60%	96.4
2025	3	0	0	1	0%	88.2
CNL	1	1	0	0	100%	91.7
Dirt	8	3	1	2	38%	96.4
Route	2	2	0	0	100%	96.4
Wet	1	1	0	0	100%	96.4

WORKS 07-26 LRL 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 44 07-05 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 46 06-22 LRL 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 72 ◆Crossingthechannel·102 06-15 LRL 4 Furlongs :48.80 H 72 ◆Big Earn·94 06-08 LRL 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 68 ★06-01 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 59

SIREBlofeld 85 88%ile turf 7%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 104d·3.9×	CNL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	1	8	0.0	F	93	93	100	92	97	87	7.4	Mychel Sanchez
2026-03-29 21d	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	1	5	0.0	S	85	nan	74	93	90	85	0.5	J.G. Torrealba
2026-03-08 30d	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	83	1	5	0.0	S	72	93	98	96	98	83	5.4	J.G. Torrealba
2026-02-06 27d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	3	6	6.5	S	87	nan	74	88	77	83	2.4	J.G. Torrealba
2026-01-10 21d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Good (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	82	2	10	9.8	F	94	89	90	88	72	84	2.3	Mychel Sanchez
2025-12-20 21d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	5	7	9.2	F	90	nan	93	87	73	86	4.1	Mychel Sanchez
2025-11-29 35d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	4	9	5.8		80	104	98	86	72	88	7.2	Carlos Lopez
2025-10-25	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	3	8	1.5	S	73	87	102	88	77	84	1.1	Carlos Lopez

8 Sabino Canyon THIN DATA

3C 122 lbs S

2.2%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.5

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 0 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class88.8 +0.6 vs race +4.7 gap

MC14.9% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced86.1 -2.7 vs today

Pace EP85.6 best 121.2

Pace LP78.7 best 82.6

Energy0.51

Connections

JockJohn Velazquezκ 0.24was Ricardo Gonzalez · +0.9

TrnBob Baffertκ 1.02

J×T11 · 0% win · 64% ITM

Angles

John Velazquez / Bob Baffert 36% +7% 3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	33%	94.4
2026	3	1	33%	94.4
2025	0	0	—	—
CNL	0	0	—	—
Dirt	2	1	50%	94.4
Route	3	1	33%	94.4
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 CD 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 93 07-19 CD 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 25 ◆Plutarch·104 07-13 CD Four Furlongs 50.20 b 36 06-21 SA 5 Furlongs :59.80 H 86 ◆Varney·101 06-14 SA 4 Furlongs :47.40 H G 70 ★06-08 SA 5 Furlongs :59.40 H 90 ◆One More Time·96

SIREMaxfield 88 96%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 36d	LRC	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	89	1	5	0.0	F	121	85	76	92	97	84	1.8	Ricardo Gonzalez
2026-05-22 63d	SA	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	4	6	6.2		70	80	83	94	102	81	5.6	Juan Hernandez
2026-03-20	SA	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	6	6	12.8	F	82	95	73	87	86	86	5.3	Florent Geroux

7 Six Speed

3C 122 lbs P

0.9%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-19.1

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -5 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class90.8 +2.6 vs race -1.4 gap

MC6.7% fair 15-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.42

Faced96.8 +8.0 vs today

Pace EP80.3 best 93.8

Pace LP79.7 best 88.0

Energy0.54

Connections

JockManuel Francoκ 0.21was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -0.6

TrnGeorge Weaverκ 0.42

J×T118 · 19% win · 58% ITM

Angles

Manuel Franco / George Weaver 19% -13% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	87.5
2026	2	0%	87.5
2025	0	—	—
CNL	0	—	—
Dirt	2	0%	87.5
Route	1	0%	87.5
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.70 B 57 07-17 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 80 07-10 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.70 B 62 06-29 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 73 ◆Ice House·93 ★06-22 SAR 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 90 ★05-30 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.04 B 79

SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile turf 19%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-06 35d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	96	8	9	35.8	F	68	90	71	86	84	96	12.69	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-05-02	CD	10.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	98	13	18	17.2	F	94	95	88	88	92	104	38.7	Brian Hernandez, Jr.

5 Exosome

3C 118 lbs S

0.5%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.2

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -3 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class92.4 +4.2 vs race -1.7 gap

MC7.4% fair 12-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced90.6 +1.8 vs today

Pace EP82.5 best 98.4

Pace LP83.2 best 98.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockTyler Gaffalioneκ 0.19was Adam Beschizza · +1.0

TrnKelsey Dannerκ 0.37

J×T4 · 50% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Kelsey Danner: off layoff (60d+) 12% +16%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	6	2	33%	91.7
2026	4	1	25%	91.7
2025	2	1	50%	90.0
CNL	0	0	—	—
Dirt	5	2	40%	91.7
Route	6	2	33%	91.7
Wet	1	1	100%	90.0

WORKS 07-20 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 63 07-14 CD Four Furlongs 49.00 b 50 07-06 CD Four Furlongs 49.20 b 52 06-28 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 41 06-12 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 54 ◆Agate·82 06-07 CD 4 Furlongs :51.60 B 23

SIRECandy Ride (Arg) 85 91%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-03-28 28d	OP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	94	8	8	22.8	F	77	nan	70	88	96	92	71.0	Adam Beschizza
2026-02-28 21d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	1	8	0.0	F	93	88	76	92	90	90	6.4	Francisco Arrieta
2026-02-07 21d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	5	9	11.2		85	87	94	89	85	91	2.65	Victor Carrasco
2026-01-17 90d·3.2×	FG	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	91	6	10	5.2	F	98	84	87	91	97	87	68.1	Jareth Loveberry
2025-10-19 78d·2.8×	KEE	8.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	1	10	0.0		66	76	99	90	88	80	18.07	Adam Beschizza
2025-08-02	ELP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	9	12	31.8		102	96	96	85	74	88	81.49	Adam Beschizza