WO 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 S R3 T R4 S R5 T R6 S R7 S R8 T R9 S R10 S

Purse $41,300. Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track) (Includes $5,800 – State Bred) (Includes $6,400 – Other Sources) (Plus $1,650 – Other Sources). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2026 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, if for $14,000, allowed 2 Lbs. (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered For Allowances).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Twist of Sugar ✓	10% 9-1 / 9/5	20.8%	E	1st/1w	81 +1.6	82²+1	81²	78²	76⁶	T→S▼cls	17%
2	Complex Secret	46% 6-5 / 2/1	34.2%	P	4th/1w	83 +3.1	84¹+3	81²	78²	89¹	L3★goldJ+1.1	38%	✓+2.7★PRIME2∠
3	Wild Red ✓	33% 2-1 / 5/2	26.7%	S	5th/1w	81 +1.4	82²+1	82¹	79¹	79⁴	★gold	19%	✓+1.61∠
4	Porshas Run ✓	4% 25-1 / 20/1	3.8%	EP	3rd/3w	77 -2.5	68⁶-13	73⁶	76⁴	89¹	L1T-0.2D→S	0%	2∠
5	Closing Appeal ✓	2% 50-1 / 6/1	7.6%	S	6th/2w	78 -1.5	77⁴-4	78⁴	73⁵	85³		14%	1∠
6	Silent Sunshine ✓	4% 25-1 / 8/1	6.9%	E	2nd/4w	79 -0.3	75⁵-6	74⁵	71⁶	77⁵	L2T→S▼cls	—	2∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 96/80 Twist of Sugar 6 LP »»» 96/101 Silent Sunshine 4 LP »» 96/98 Porshas Run 2 99/98 Complex Secret 3 105/92 Wild Red 5 LP » 105/101 Closing Appeal

On the lead: 1, 6, 4 · race sets up for closers

2 Complex Secret ★ PRIME

4F 121 lbs L P

46.5%

MODEL %

6-5

MODEL FAIR

+13.2

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 +3 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class82.8 +3.1 vs race +0.8 gap

MC39.6% fair 3-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced82.2 +2.0 vs today

Pace EP87.0 best 99.0

Pace LP80.1 best 98.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockSahin Civaciκ 0.17was Kemarie Blackett · +1.1

TrnMichael Mattineκ 0.25

J×T24 · 38% win · 62% ITM

Angles

Sahin Civaci / Michael Mattine 33% -7% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	17	1	3	3	6%	95.6
2026	2	0	2	0	0%	81.0
2025	11	1	1	2	9%	95.6
WO	8	0	3	1	0%	81.0
Synthetic	6	0	2	1	0%	81.0
Sprint	17	1	3	3	6%	95.6
Wet	1	0	0	1	0%	92.7

WORKS 07-22 WO 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 31 07-08 WO 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 31 06-08 WO 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 67 05-30 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 47 05-09 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 62 05-02 WO 5 Furlongs 1:05.00 B 23

SIREComplexity 84 87%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-18 34d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	2	6	5.8	F	90	78	87	78	71	83	2.4	Kemarie Blackett
2026-05-15 210d·8.1×	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	80	2	8	0.1	S	88	93	75	81	72	83	1.9	Christoff Douglas
2025-10-17 69d·2.7×	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	80	9	9	7.8	S	99	88	60	79	63	84	1.55	Xarel Forde
2025-08-09 21d	WO	6.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	84	6	6	10.5	S	98	92	98	76	65	86	2.75	Rafael Hernandez
2025-07-19 14d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	85	6	7	6.2	F	81	85	81	78	78	87	2.95	Eswan Flores
2025-07-05 21d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	83	2	9	3.5	F	68	91	75	77	82	87	3.35	Rafael Hernandez
2025-06-14 21d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	87	5	8	7.0		100	93	96	80	77	87	15.0	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2025-05-24 29d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	86	3	10	4.5	F	84	95	96	80	77	87	38.6	Pietro Moran
2025-04-25 26d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	9	11	19.5	F	90	80	85	83	79	87	52.9	Isaac Castillo
2025-03-30	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	10	10	20.2	F	81	88	92	81	64	88	47.1	Fernando Jara

3 Wild Red

4F 125 lbs L S

33.2%

MODEL %

2-1

MODEL FAIR

+4.6

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 +1 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class81.1 +1.4 vs race +0.8 gap

MC27.9% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced79.5 -0.7 vs today

Pace EP84.4 best 104.6

Pace LP81.4 best 92.4

Energy0.54

Connections

JockPietro Moranκ 0.03

TrnDarwin Banachκ 0.09

J×T42 · 19% win · 45% ITM

Angles

Pietro Moran / Darwin Banach 20% +41%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	1	3	2	10%	87.2
2026	3	1	0	1	33%	79.6
2025	5	0	2	1	0%	82.0
WO	10	1	3	2	10%	87.2
Synthetic	9	1	2	2	11%	87.2
Sprint	10	1	3	2	10%	87.2
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-14 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 56 05-23 WO 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 34 ★05-02 WO 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 49 04-25 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 67 04-19 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 71 04-11 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 67

SIRESignature Red 80 41%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 41d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	3	8	3.0		79	82	79	79	72	80	3.6	Pietro Moran
2026-05-29 20d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	1	8	0.0	F	73	84	92	79	70	80	4.3	Pietro Moran
2026-05-09 211d·5.1×	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	81	5	6	8.0		92	nan	77	80	72	81	4.45	Pietro Moran
2025-10-10 64d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	79	4	7	6.2		105	85	79	82	77	81	1.3	Rafael Hernandez
2025-08-07 19d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	3	10	5.0	S	86	nan	84	77	66	82	1.9	Jose Campos
2025-07-19 21d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	6	1.2		90	91	84	82	81	81	2.6	Jose Campos
2025-06-28 41d	WO	5.0f	turf	Good	Mdn	80	2	7	3.2	F	78	90	89	74	70	80	4.55	Jose Campos
2025-05-18 155d·3.8×	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	5	11	10.0	F	97	94	76	73	65	83	1.8	Sofia Vives
2024-12-14 21d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	8	0.1	S	82	nan	83	87	80	81	4.55	Jose Campos
2024-11-23	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	4	10	5.2		91	87	79	79	66	80	13.35	Kirk Johnson

1 Twist of Sugar

3F 122 lbs L E

10.0%

MODEL %

9-1

MODEL FAIR

-25.7

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 +1 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class81.3 +1.6 vs race +0.2 gap

MC17.1% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced80.2 0.0 vs today

Pace EP85.4 best 96.4

Pace LP76.9 best 80.1

Energy0.56

Connections

JockRomero Maraghκ 0.02

TrnSteven Chircopκ 0.09

J×T6 · 17% win · 67% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	11	1	1	2	9%	84.8
2026	5	1	0	2	20%	81.3
2025	6	0	1	0	0%	84.8
WO	11	1	1	2	9%	84.8
Synthetic	6	1	0	2	17%	81.3
Sprint	11	1	1	2	9%	84.8
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 04-12 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 04-05 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 56

SIRECupid 83 76%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 21d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	82	5	6	4.5	F	80	74	72	78	64	81	5.4	Romero Maragh
2026-06-18 20d	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	1	7	0.0	F	96	84	73	80	74	80	2.0	Romero Maragh
2026-05-29 20d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	3	8	4.2	F	86	64	78	77	65	80	2.85	Romero Maragh
2026-05-09 20d	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	81	3	6	5.8		90	nan	80	81	75	80	3.45	Rafael Hernandez
2026-04-19 147d·7.0×	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	82	5	6	2.8		90	86	72	78	67	80	2.05	Rafael Hernandez
2025-11-23 22d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	7	9	15.2		85	nan	78	76	63	83	6.6	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2025-11-01 14d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	7	8	10.0		77	88	82	78	69	85	6.35	Austin Adams
2025-10-18 37d	WO	5.0f	turf	Good	MSW	82	6	9	5.8		89	74	33	81	73	86	2.45	Ryan Munger
2025-09-11 26d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	2	6	4.2	F	73	84	100	84	82	86	2.7	Ryan Munger
2025-08-16	WO	6.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	87	6	8	7.5	F	98	91	98	85	80	86	22.0	Ryan Munger

6 Silent Sunshine

4F 118 lbs L E

4.2%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.9

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig75 -6 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class79.4 -0.3 vs race -4.4 gap

MC4.7% fair 20-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced80.5 +0.3 vs today

Pace EP85.1 best 95.5

Pace LP82.3 best 100.7

Energy0.55

Connections

JockKemarie Blackettκ 0.05

TrnCarlos Grantκ 0.18

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Carlos Grant: 2nd off layoff 9% -38%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	15	1	2	7%	81.3
2026	1	0	0	0%	71.0
2025	9	1	0	11%	79.0
WO	15	1	2	7%	81.3
Synthetic	12	0	2	0%	81.3
Sprint	15	1	2	7%	81.3
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 65 07-06 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 44 06-08 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 41 06-01 WO 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 29 05-25 WO 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 32 05-18 WO 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 38

SIRESilent Name (Jpn) 81 45%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-19 195d·8.5×	WO	5.0f	turf	Good	Clm	82	5	6	4.0	F	89	nan	65	71	56	78	11.0	Kemarie Blackett
2025-12-06 23d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	79	5	9	8.2		83	88	92	74	66	78	60.85	Xarel Forde
2025-11-13 49d·2.1×	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	79	9	10	11.5		96	91	73	70	58	79	15.1	Rafael Hernandez
2025-09-25 13d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	8	9	8.5		85	88	88	72	67	79	13.0	Rafael Hernandez
2025-09-12 21d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	7	7	9.8		88	75	101	73	66	80	13.7	Rafael Hernandez
2025-08-22 26d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	7	8	8.5	F	93	84	105	72	64	80	11.45	Jose Campos
2025-07-27 29d	WO	6.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	84	8	8	7.0		79	87	88	72	73	78	42.0	Jose Campos
2025-06-28 16d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	83	10	10	16.0		81	95	100	71	70	79	40.35	Xarel Forde
2025-06-12 14d	WO	6.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn	78	1	6	0.0		83	90	84	79	76	77	2.85	Rafael Hernandez
2025-05-29	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	81	8	10	5.0	F	89	76	nan	77	76	76	29.9	Rafael Hernandez

4 Porshas Run

5M 121 lbs L EP

3.9%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-0.9

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig68 -13 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class77.2 -2.5 vs race -9.5 gap

MC0.8% fair 99-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced79.6 -0.6 vs today

Pace EP86.1 best 96.2

Pace LP82.5 best 98.1

Energy0.54

Connections

JockJuan Crawfordκ 0.06

TrnRyan Jonesκ -0.14was Kenneth Smith · -0.2

J×T6 · 0% win · 33% ITM

Angles

1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	1	1	1	7%	78.3
2026	0	0	0	0	—	—
2025	7	0	1	1	0%	78.3
WO	10	1	0	0	10%	76.3
Synthetic	9	1	0	0	11%	76.3
Sprint	14	1	1	1	7%	78.3
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-03 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 B G 48 06-20 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 64 06-09 WO 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 50 05-30 WO 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 68 05-23 WO 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 39

SIRESouper Speedy 81 57%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-10-21 7d	FE	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	5	6	11.0	S	96	96	81	76	72	78	21.2	Juan Crawford
2025-10-14 36d·2.0×	FE	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	2	6	3.0	S	77	93	86	78	76	77	6.05	Juan Crawford
2025-09-08 14d	FE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	6	8	10.8		96	90	98	74	63	77	19.15	Pierre Mailhot
2025-08-25 18d	FE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	3	4	4.2	S	95	nan	64	73	52	76	3.2	Pierre Mailhot
2025-08-07 21d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	85	7	7	14.8	F	84	86	91	69	68	76	79.35	Austin Adams
2025-07-17 20d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	80	8	8	10.5	S	86	nan	80	67	56	76	81.0	Austin Adams
2025-06-27 203d·11.3×	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	79	6	6	15.5		75	85	102	62	53	77	46.25	Austin Adams
2024-12-06 14d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	79	6	6	7.8	S	89	86	84	73	71	76	10.15	Austin Adams
2024-11-22 8d	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	3	4.5	S	82	88	91	66	57	75	15.15	Austin Adams
2024-11-14	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	7	10	6.0	S	96	86	82	66	55	75	6.75	Austin Adams

5 Closing Appeal

4F 121 lbs L S

2.2%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig77 -4 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class78.2 -1.5 vs race -1.4 gap

MC10.0% fair 9-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced78.3 -1.9 vs today

Pace EP84.5 best 104.7

Pace LP84.0 best 101.1

Energy0.54

Connections

JockEmma-Jayne Wilsonκ 0.08

TrnFrank Huarteκ -0.07

J×T7 · 14% win · 43% ITM

Angles

Emma-Jayne Wilson / Frank Huarte 18% -37%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	16	1	2	1	6%	78.1
2026	5	1	1	0	20%	78.1
2025	7	0	1	1	0%	75.6
WO	16	1	2	1	6%	78.1
Synthetic	16	1	2	1	6%	78.1
Sprint	14	1	2	1	7%	78.1
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-23 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 58 05-22 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 51 04-26 WO 5 Furlongs 1:05.00 B 23 ◆Danish Cookie·78 04-19 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 64 04-12 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 39 04-06 WO 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 45

SIREFlatter 85 89%ile turf 10%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 14d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	4	8	7.0		82	80	88	73	66	78	10.05	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2026-06-25 14d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	4	6	6.2	F	86	85	82	75	64	77	3.45	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2026-06-11 13d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	8	0.0	F	76	86	101	78	76	76	1.35	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2026-05-29 27d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	4	8	7.0	F	87	89	87	72	61	75	6.75	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2026-05-02 142d·6.5×	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	2	8	3.5	S	105	nan	74	77	70	74	16.95	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2025-12-11 27d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	2	11	5.0	S	88	93	90	75	69	74	13.25	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2025-11-14 22d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	3	11	8.2		90	91	98	73	66	74	19.4	Jose Campos
2025-10-23 11d	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	74	9	12	12.5		71	87	94	70	55	74	8.65	Slade Jones
2025-10-12 122d·5.5×	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	4	12	2.5		81	87	95	76	75	73	43.35	Slade Jones
2025-06-12	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	7	9	12.5	S	89	88	87	68	59	73	7.15	Fraser Aebly