WO 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

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WO 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs ALL WEATHER TRACK

strength

-3.4 soft

win par

fig to beat

SPEED DUEL

shape

closers favored

FAST

early pace

1st¼ 22.2s / par 22.6

TOP-HEAVY

field

figs 78.7–91.5

Purse $86,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track) For Auction Maidens, Colts And Geldings Two Years Old. Weight, 121 Lbs. Those Canadian Bred Foals of 2024 which went through the Sales as Yearlings or Weanlings at a sale conducted by the CTHS (ONT.DIV) at Woodbine, on which the Maximum Commission was paid shall be eligible. CTHS have provided a certified list of eligible horses.*No Canadian Bred Allowance*.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Forza	0% 99-1 / 6/1	6.7%	P	3rd/1w	70 -12.3	81⁴-7	—	—	—		—	2∠
2	Hypnotizm	0% 99-1 / 8/1	5.3%		6th/1w	—	82³-6	—	—	—		12%	3∠
3	Road to Glory	93% 1-9 / 9/5	54.0%		4th/1w	85 +2.7	92¹+4	92¹	92¹	93²	▼cls	8%	✓+3.4★PRIME2∠
4	Appointed Talent	0% 99-1 / 10/1	4.3%		7th/1w	—	79⁶-9	—	—	—		17%	1∠
5	It Wasn't a Bluff	0% 99-1 / 12/1	3.7%		5th/2w	76 -6.1	79⁶-9	77⁴	77³	78³	J-1.5	0%	⚠-2.01∠
6	Longshot Leo	4% 25-1 / 2/1	17.3%	EP	2nd/4w	79 -3.4	84²-4	83²	80²	105¹	KEY	27%	1∠
7	Lord Yorkton	2% 50-1 / 5/1	8.6%	EP	1st/4w	79 -3.2	81⁴-7	80³	74⁴	—	▼cls	12%	1∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 7 »»» 87/77 Lord Yorkton 6 LP »»» 99/111 Longshot Leo 1 Forza 3 98/88 Road to Glory 5 » 98/57 It Wasn't a Bluff 2 Hypnotizm 4 Appointed Talent

On the lead: 7, 6 · race sets up for closers

3 Road to Glory ★ PRIME THIN DATA

2G 121 lbs

93.3%

MODEL %

1-9

MODEL FAIR

+57.6

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 +4 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 92 vs par 88

Class85.0 +2.7 vs race +6.5 gap

MC43.2% fair 7-5

ConfNORMAL σα 0.46

Faced82.4 +3.5 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 98.4

Pace LP82.0 best 87.9

Energy0.50

Connections

JockEmma-Jayne Wilsonκ 0.08

TrnJohn Charalambousκ 0.22

J×T13 · 8% win · 23% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% Emma-Jayne Wilson / John Charalambous 5% -29%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	91.5
2026	1	0%	91.5
2025	0	—	—
WO	1	0%	91.5
Synthetic	1	0%	91.5
Sprint	1	0%	91.5
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 40 06-21 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 53 ★06-13 WO 5 Furlongs :59.80 B 81 ◆Smoldering 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 47 05-23 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 57 05-16 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 48

SIREBolt D'Oro 85 89%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	4	10	3.8	S	98	nan	88	92	77	82	7.95	Emma-Jayne Wilson

6 Longshot Leo THIN DATA

2G 121 lbs L EP

4.2%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-29.1

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -4 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class78.9 -3.4 vs race +4.8 gap

MC12.4% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced79.8 +0.9 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 99.1

Pace LP83.9 best 110.8

Energy0.51

Connections

JockRafael Hernandezκ 0.12

TrnDale Desruisseauxκ 0.09

J×T101 · 27% win · 52% ITM

Angles

Rafael Hernandez / Dale Desruisseaux 24% +12%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	2	0%	83.2
2026	2	2	0%	83.2
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	2	2	0%	83.2
Synthetic	2	2	0%	83.2
Sprint	2	2	0%	83.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 35 07-04 WO 3 Furlongs :39.80 B 16 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 50 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 47 05-30 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 57 05-23 WO 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 45

SIREOld Forester 80 43%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 21d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	6	10.2	S	99	86	111	80	75	81	1.65	Rafael Hernandez
2026-06-21	WO	4.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	8	5.2	S	84	nan	68	83	74	80	2.3	Rafael Hernandez

7 Lord Yorkton THIN DATA

2C 121 lbs EP

1.8%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.9

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig81 -7 vs par

Needs +11~3% run that

Class79.1 -3.2 vs race +1.7 gap

MC7.5% fair 12-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced82.4 +3.5 vs today

Pace EP81.7 best 86.6

Pace LP79.3 best 77.2

Energy0.51

Connections

JockJose Camposκ 0.09

TrnSteven Chircopκ 0.09

J×T143 · 12% win · 31% ITM

Angles

Jose Campos / Steven Chircop 13% -10%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	80.1
2026	2	0%	80.1
2025	0	—	—
WO	2	0%	80.1
Synthetic	2	0%	80.1
Sprint	2	0%	80.1
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-11 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 57 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 68 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 49 05-31 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 56 ★05-24 WO 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 79 ◆Awesome Grace 05-17 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 47

SIREYorkton 84 87%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 35d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	10	11	20.5	S	—	—	—	74	55	85	7.95	Jose Campos
2026-06-14	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	4	8	3.8	F	87	nan	77	80	72	82	9.15	Jose Campos

5 It Wasn't a Bluff THIN DATA

2C 121 lbs L

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.4

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -9 vs par

Needs +11~3% run that

Class76.2 -6.1 vs race +2.9 gap

MC8.4% fair 10-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced79.8 +0.9 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 98.5

Pace LP74.2 best 56.7

Energy0.48

Connections

JockDesean Bynoeκ -0.09was Keveh Nicholls · -1.5

TrnDevon Gittensκ 0.15

J×T10 · 0% win · 20% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	77.4
2026	1	0%	77.4
2025	0	—	—
WO	1	0%	77.4
Synthetic	1	0%	77.4
Sprint	1	0%	77.4
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 H 73 07-19 WO 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 45 ★07-04 WO 4 Furlongs :50.60 H 40 06-14 WO 4 Furlongs :52.60 B G 12 06-07 WO 3 Furlongs :39.00 B 21 05-24 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 52

SIREGamble'S Exchange 81 48%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-21	WO	4.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	6	8	11.5	S	98	83	57	77	64	80	19.45	Keveh Nicholls

2 Hypnotizm

2C 121 lbs

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.9

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -6 vs par

MC8.5% fair 10-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockKeveh Nichollsκ 0.06

TrnPhilip Hallκ 0.1

J×T154 · 12% win · 38% ITM

Angles

Keveh Nicholls / Philip Hall 13% -15% Debut 11% -25% Philip Hall: debut 7% -60%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 56 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 57 07-12 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 54 07-05 WO 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 38 06-28 WO 3 Furlongs :38.60 B 31 06-21 WO 2 Furlongs :25.40 B 38

SIRECollusion Illusion 96 99%ile

No prior races in database

4 Appointed Talent

2C 121 lbs L 1

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.9

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -9 vs par

MC6.1% fair 15-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockDa-Sean Gaskinκ 0.02

TrnRyan Jonesκ -0.14

J×T6 · 17% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :50.20 B G 40 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 40 07-12 WO 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 45 07-06 WO 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 47 06-27 WO 2 Furlongs :25.80 B 34 ★06-20 WO 2 Furlongs :24.80 B 48

SIREPoint Of Entry 82 71%ile 1st-out 20% (172) turf 15%

No prior races in database

1 Forza

2C 121 lbs L 1 P

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.2

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig81 -7 vs par

Class70.0 -12.3 vs race +11.0 gap

MC14.0% fair 6-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

Connections

JockEswan Floresκ 0.1

TrnM P De Pauloκ 0.0

Angles

1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 45 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B G 60 07-12 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 60 07-06 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 48 06-20 WO 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 33 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :51.00 B G 28

SIRESpeightstown 86 94%ile turf 15%

No prior races in database