WO 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 S R3 T R4 S R5 T R6 S R7 S R8 T R9 S R10 S

Purse $125,000. Seven And One Half Furlongs. (Inner turf) (Includes $16,700 – State Bred) (Includes $25,000 – Other Sources) (Plus $17,125 – Other Sources). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races Or Three Years Old Claiming Price $50,000. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since June 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered For Allowances).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Spa Prospector	15% 6-1 / 3/1	17.7%	P	1st/1w	89 +2.0	87⁵-3	—	84⁴	93¹	★goldrte→spr	21%	✓+1.21∠
2	Americathegreat	32% 2-1 / 8/5	31.2%	S	7th/1w	92 +4.4	89²-1	—	87³	90²	L2J+1.5S→T	21%	✓+4.5★PRIME5∠
3	Mew N Me ✓	11% 8-1 / 10/1	8.6%	P	3rd/1w	85 -2.6	89²-1	87²	89²	84⁶	L3★goldS→Trte→spr▲cls▲slo-close	13%	✓+1.25∠
4	Snow Flower ✓	30% 5-2 / 8/1	17.4%		5th/1w	87 -0.0	88⁴-2	—	91¹	51⁷	J+0.5S→T▲cls	10%	✓+4.5★VALUE4∠
5	Faith Understood	1% 50-1 / 15/1	3.5%	S	6th/2w	89 +1.2	84⁶-6	—	80⁵	90²	rte→spr	14%
6	Nonna's Love	3% 30-1 / 6/1	7.8%	P	4th/2w	87 -0.5	91¹+1	92¹	75⁷	85⁵	L1S→T▼cls▲slo-close	21%	5∠
7	Ada Clare ✓	8% 12-1 / 7/2	13.7%	EP	2nd/4w	84 -3.0	84⁶-6	—	78⁶	88⁴	L2S→T▲cls	17%	4∠

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 23.7s par 23.7 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 HOLDS 97/93 Spa Prospector 7 LP »»» 97/99 Ada Clare 3 LP 96/96 Mew N Me 6 LP » 113/97 Nonna's Love 4 63/39 Snow Flower 5 » 103/84 Faith Understood 2 LP 109/97 Americathegreat

2 Americathegreat ★ PRIME

3F 119 lbs L S

32.4%

MODEL %

2-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.1

EDGE vs ML

8/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -1 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 92 vs par 90

Class91.8 +4.4 vs race -3.1 gap

MC18.2% fair 9-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced89.5 +2.1 vs today

Pace EP85.8 best 109.3

Pace LP85.5 best 97.0

Energy0.52

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockSahin Civaciκ 0.17was Romero Maragh · +1.5

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T263 · 21% win · 57% ITM

Angles

Sahin Civaci / Mark Casse 22% -1% Mark Casse: 2nd off layoff 17% -16% Mark Casse: first-time turf 14% -23% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	1	3	17%	96.1
2026	1	0	1	0%	86.7
2025	5	1	2	20%	96.1
WO	1	0	1	0%	86.7
Turf	0	0	0	—	—
Sprint	4	0	3	0%	93.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 20 06-24 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 56 06-17 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 77 ★06-10 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 72 06-03 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 78 ◆Blitz·98 05-27 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 65 ◆Abdul·86

SIRECurlin 87 96%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 251d·5.6×	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	88	2	5	3.0	F	84	87	97	87	87	93	3.4	Romero Maragh
2025-10-26 29d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	4	6	7.8	S	87	96	96	92	84	92	5.56	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-09-27 29d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	9	0.0		71	84	80	96	98	92	1.19	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-08-29 61d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	2	7	1.2	F	96	nan	87	94	94	93	3.4	Dylan Davis
2025-06-29 45d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	4	8	7.2	F	109	95	84	89	83	92	2.58	Jose Ortiz
2025-05-15	CD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	2	8	3.0	F	85	89	98	92	80	88	4.9	Jose Ortiz

4 Snow Flower ★ VALUE THIN DATA

3F 121 lbs L

30.3%

MODEL %

5-2

MODEL FAIR

+19.2

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 91 vs par 90

Class87.4 -0.0 vs race +0.7 gap

MC15.9% fair 5-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.49

Faced82.4 -5.0 vs today

Pace EP75.9 best 63.4

Pace LP69.6 best 38.5

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockLuis Contrerasκ 0.07was Pietro Moran · +0.5

TrnHarold Ladouceurκ 0.19

J×T10 · 10% win · 40% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% First-time turf 10% -26% Luis Contreras / Harold Ladouceur 7% +34% Harold Ladouceur: first-time turf 5% +16%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	100%	90.8
2026	1	1	100%	90.8
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	1	1	100%	90.8
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	1	1	100%	90.8
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 56 07-04 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 B 77 06-28 WO 4 Furlongs :47.40 B G 68 06-21 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 67 06-14 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 63 06-07 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 65

SIREGhostzapper 86 92%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	1	5	0.0	S	63	72	38	91	81	82	2.0	Pietro Moran

1 Spa Prospector

3F 119 lbs L P

14.6%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.4

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -3 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class89.4 +2.0 vs race -2.8 gap

MC11.4% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced90.1 +2.7 vs today

Pace EP84.5 best 97.1

Pace LP84.1 best 93.3

Energy0.55

Connections

JockFraser Aeblyκ 0.09

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T73 · 21% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Fraser Aebly / Mark Casse 19% -45%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	1	2	12%	94.4
2026	3	0	1	0%	88.1
2025	5	1	1	20%	94.4
WO	1	0	1	0%	83.7
Turf	1	0	1	0%	83.7
Sprint	6	1	1	17%	94.4
Wet	1	1	0	100%	94.2

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 52 07-04 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 H 65 06-26 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 48 06-19 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 57 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 59 05-22 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 38

SIREAuthentic 85 89%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 44d	WO	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	3	7	3.8	F	97	105	89	84	82	89	4.25	Fraser Aebly
2026-05-28 56d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	8	8	15.5		77	88	82	86	79	91	24.38	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-04-02 147d·3.3×	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	4	6	7.2	F	88	nan	88	88	84	90	9.4	Ramon Vazquez
2025-11-06 34d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	5	5	16.8	F	83	nan	80	87	79	92	10.72	Jose Lezcano
2025-10-03 61d	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	4	8	4.8	F	90	84	93	92	91	92	6.58	Jose Ortiz
2025-08-03 22d	SAR	6.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	93	3	5	7.5	F	99	90	72	94	92	91	14.5	Dylan Davis
2025-07-12 36d	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	87	1	7	0.0		97	92	79	94	95	90	5.7	Jose Ortiz
2025-06-06	CD	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	7	9	5.0		88	nan	96	86	74	88	2.02	Brian Hernandez, Jr.

3 Mew N Me

4F 122 lbs L P

10.8%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

+1.7

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class84.8 -2.6 vs race +3.8 gap

MC21.5% fair 7-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.43

Faced82.7 -4.7 vs today

Pace EP85.2 best 96.3

Pace LP78.2 best 96.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockDaisuke Fukumotoκ 0.13was Fraser Aebly · +0.3

TrnAlexander McPhersonκ 0.16

J×T31 · 13% win · 29% ITM

Angles

Alexander McPherson: first-time turf 19% +9% Daisuke Fukumoto / Alexander McPherson 18% +2% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	1	1	2	11%	91.9
2026	2	1	0	0	50%	88.6
2025	7	0	1	2	0%	91.9
WO	9	1	1	2	11%	91.9
Turf	1	0	0	1	0%	86.7
Sprint	7	0	1	2	0%	91.9
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-14 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 66 05-20 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 64

SIREMitole 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 35d	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	81	1	8	0.0	S	72	94	96	89	79	85	2.05	Fraser Aebly
2026-05-30 170d·6.1×	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	6	7	5.8		95	95	85	87	74	85	3.0	Jose Campos
2025-12-11 26d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	83	3	8	1.0	S	96	80	72	92	83	85	3.3	Fraser Aebly
2025-11-15 21d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	84	2	7	0.2	F	96	81	74	89	80	84	5.2	Jose Campos
2025-10-25 28d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	83	4	9	4.5		82	72	59	87	75	84	8.95	Jose Campos
2025-09-27 21d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	86	5	7	4.2		87	92	91	92	85	84	12.9	Jose Campos
2025-09-06 16d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	6	7	0.0	F	98	94	114	90	86	82	8.7	Fraser Aebly
2025-08-21 47d	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	85	4	8	10.5	F	89	79	86	87	83	85	11.1	Fraser Aebly
2025-07-05	WO	7.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	3	11	4.2	F	95	84	94	87	88	82	51.8	Fraser Aebly

7 Ada Clare

3F 121 lbs L EP

7.8%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.4

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -6 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class84.4 -3.0 vs race -0.4 gap

MC4.8% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced83.7 -3.7 vs today

Pace EP81.2 best 96.9

Pace LP87.4 best 99.0

Energy0.53

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockRomero Maraghκ 0.02

TrnKevin Attardκ 0.48

J×T12 · 17% win · 58% ITM

Angles

Kevin Attard: 2nd off layoff 18% -27% Kevin Attard: first-time turf 17% -11% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	88.9
2026	1	1	0	100%	78.3
2025	3	0	1	0%	88.9
WO	4	1	1	25%	88.9
Turf	0	0	0	—	—
Sprint	3	1	1	33%	88.9
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :46.20 B 74 ◆Celebrity Warrior·92 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 50 ★06-20 WO 4 Furlongs :47.20 H 78 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 64 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 67 05-29 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 52

SIREQuality Road 86 94%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 195d·6.1×	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	81	1	7	0.0	F	97	92	80	78	67	83	2.3	Romero Maragh
2025-12-14 31d	WO	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	83	5	6	9.5	S	86	100	99	81	64	85	2.4	Fraser Aebly
2025-11-13 32d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	5	6	6.2	S	67	85	98	82	68	87	1.05	Pietro Moran
2025-10-12	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	88	2	7	5.5		79	nan	95	89	90	85	21.25	Pietro Moran

6 Nonna's Love

3F 119 lbs L P

2.6%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.7

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 +1 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class86.9 -0.5 vs race +4.1 gap

MC19.9% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced88.5 +1.1 vs today

Pace EP83.2 best 113.2

Pace LP82.0 best 97.3

Energy0.53

Connections

JockPietro Moranκ 0.03was Romero Maragh · +0.1

TrnKevin Attardκ 0.48

J×T286 · 21% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Kevin Attard: off layoff (60d+) 21% -9% Pietro Moran / Kevin Attard 20% -11% Kevin Attard: first-time turf 17% -11% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	92.2
2026	2	0	0	0%	92.2
2025	2	1	1	50%	88.7
WO	1	0	0	0%	75.1
Turf	2	1	0	50%	92.2
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	92.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-20 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 61 ★07-10 WO 4 Furlongs :46.80 B 72 ◆Go For Launch 07-01 WO 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 73 05-29 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 45 05-19 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 48 04-19 WO 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 44

SIRECaravaggio 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-04-25 107d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	90	7	7	20.5	S	73	90	97	75	64	92	5.25	Romero Maragh
2026-01-08 210d·2.0×	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	6	10	3.8	F	81	89	97	92	99	90	7.9	Rajiv Maragh
2025-06-12 50d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	1	7	0.0	F	113	92	nan	89	88	89	1.25	John Velazquez
2025-04-23	KEE	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	3	10	4.2		75	89	58	86	79	87	4.62	Luis Saez

5 Faith Understood

5M 122 lbs L S

1.4%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.8

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -6 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class88.6 +1.2 vs race -5.1 gap

MC8.3% fair 12-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced88.8 +1.4 vs today

Pace EP88.5 best 102.8

Pace LP77.6 best 84.1

Energy0.50

Connections

JockJeffrey Aldersonκ 0.08

TrnSteven Chircopκ 0.09

J×T7 · 14% win · 29% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	16	1	1	2	6%	92.1
2026	5	0	0	0	0%	89.2
2025	6	0	0	1	0%	92.1
WO	3	0	0	0	0%	82.2
Turf	12	1	1	2	8%	92.1
Sprint	0	0	0	0	—	—
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	84.0

WORKS 05-23 WO 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 39 05-10 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 73 04-25 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 54 04-17 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 61

SIRECatholic Boy 82 60%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 21d	WO	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	88	7	8	4.0	S	98	nan	83	80	74	88	18.9	Jeffrey Alderson
2026-06-20 21d	WO	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	5	9	4.0	F	103	91	76	79	77	88	14.5	Jeffrey Alderson
2026-05-30 98d·3.5×	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	87	8	10	14.5	F	92	87	68	82	80	90	12.05	Jose Campos
2026-02-21 28d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	8	10	6.8	F	89	81	84	82	90	90	65.2	Luca Panici
2026-01-24 28d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	91	7	10	5.0	S	87	nan	70	89	97	89	96.5	Luca Panici
2025-12-27 125d·4.5×	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	89	8	9	11.2	F	84	84	89	84	90	90	34.3	Luca Panici
2025-08-24 34d	ELP	8.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	91	4	8	2.8	S	84	64	41	86	74	89	35.82	Edgar Morales
2025-07-21 17d	ELP	9.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	90	5	6	16.5	S	91	88	91	84	81	90	10.53	Gabriel Saez
2025-07-04 36d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	5	6	4.0		81	86	93	85	88	90	3.07	Gabriel Saez
2025-05-29	CD	8.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	89	3	9	4.5	F	82	80	91	87	93	89	6.13	Florent Geroux