TRACKS · 2026-08-01 ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 S R2 S R3 T R4 S R5 T R6 S R7 S R8 T R9 S R10 S
R7 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
WO 2026-08-01 Six Furlongs ALL WEATHER TRACK
88
strength
+0.7 fair
90
win par
fig to beat
SPEED DUEL
shape
closers favored
FAST
early pace
1st¼ 22.2s / par 22.6
BALANCED
field
figs 84.9–89.5
Purse $128,200. Six Furlongs. (All Weather Track) (Includes $17,100 – State Bred) (Includes $25,600 – Other Sources) (Plus $17,125 – Other Sources). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won $9,000 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Restricted Allowance Or Two Year Old And Three Year Old Restricted State Bred/state Sired Sweepstakes Or Sales Sweepstakes Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or Which Have Not Won A Race Since February 1, 2025 Or Claiming Price $50,000. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since June 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $50,000, if for $47,500, allowed 2 Lbs. (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered For Allowances).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Give Me the Boots 20% 4-1 / 6/1 14.5% EP 3rd/1w 87 -0.2 855-5 912 854 951 L3 25% 1∠
2 Foresters Exec 2% 50-1 / 8/1 5.9% P 5th/1w 86 -1.5 855-5 866 797 942 ★gold 22% 1∠
3 Minimum Forty 8% 12-1 / 3/1 14.9% E 2nd/1w 87 -0.6 864-4 885 826 933 23% 1∠
4 Miss Demanding 8% 12-1 / 9/2 11.7% EP 1st/2w 88 +1.0 883-2 921 901 797 L1T-3.0J-2.2 ⚠-4.91∠
5 Ludicrous 26% 3-1 / 5/2 23.6% EP 4th/3w 88 +0.7 901+0 903 873 904 L1▲cls 27% 3∠
6 Girls Weekend 20% 4-1 / 10/1 12.3% EP 6th/4w 90 +2.5 855-5 857 854 885 L1J-1.0▲cls 0% ⚠-4.03∠
7 Luz de La Luna 17% 5-1 / 7/2 17.1% P 7th/3w 89 +1.8 892-1 894 892 846 L1 12% 2∠
Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 LP » 97/109 Miss Demanding 3 LP 95/112 Minimum Forty 1 101/91 Give Me the Boots 5 »» 95/105 Ludicrous 2 102/109 Foresters Exec 6 »»» 96/90 Girls Weekend 7 »» 94/97 Luz de La Luna
On the lead: 4, 3 · race sets up for closers
5 Ludicrous
4F 123 lbs L EP
25.6%
MODEL %
3-1
MODEL FAIR
-3.0
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 0 vs par
Needs +3~22% run that
Class88.2 +0.7 vs race +1.3 gap
MC23.7% fair 3-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.31
Faced84.9 -3.3 vs today
Pace EP87.3 best 94.6
Pace LP87.8 best 104.6
Energy0.52
Connections
JockRafael Hernandezκ 0.12
TrnJosie Carrollκ 0.63
J×T73 · 27% win · 51% ITM
Angles
Rafael Hernandez / Josie Carroll 28% +1% Josie Carroll: off layoff (60d+) 16% -24% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 520040%90.2
2026 1100100%86.7
2025 410025%90.2
WO 520040%90.2
Synthetic 520040%90.2
Sprint 520040%90.2
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-20 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 60 07-12 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 71 07-05 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 52 06-21 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 50 06-13 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 56 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 54
SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile turf 11%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-16 167d·2.6× WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 85 1 6 0.0 95 nan 86 87 84 87 0.45 Rafael Hernandez
2025-11-30 64d WO 7.0f synthetic Fast AOC 87 5 8 6.0 F 90 78 81 84 81 86 1.35 Fraser Aebly
2025-09-27 35d WO 6.5f synthetic Fast MSW 86 1 7 0.0 94 84 94 90 90 85 8.0 Fraser Aebly
2025-08-23 28d WO 7.0f synthetic Fast MSW 84 5 8 3.8 F 87 88 97 84 86 86 4.2 Fraser Aebly
2025-07-26 WO 6.5f synthetic Fast MSW 82 4 11 2.8 F 93 92 105 87 85 82 6.05 Fraser Aebly
6 Girls Weekend
5M 123 lbs L EP
20.1%
MODEL %
4-1
MODEL FAIR
+11.0
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -5 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class90.0 +2.5 vs race -5.0 gap
MC10.7% fair 8-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced90.8 +2.6 vs today
Pace EP85.9 best 95.9
Pace LP78.1 best 89.7
Energy0.53
Connections
JockPietro Moranκ 0.03was Ryan Munger · -1.0
TrnBarbara Minshallκ 0.31
J×T4 · 0% win · 25% ITM
Angles
Barbara Minshall: off layoff (60d+) 16% -8% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1331223%95.9
2026 1100100%84.7
2025 40010%88.3
WO 1100100%84.7
Synthetic 1100100%84.7
Sprint 1331223%95.9
Wet 1100100%95.7
WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 49 07-11 WO 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 72 07-04 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 55 06-26 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 48 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :46.80 B 76 ◆Jolted·90 05-08 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 56
SIREWorld Of Trouble 83 74%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-15 285d·6.2× WO 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 85 1 7 0.0 F 93 nan 83 85 82 91 3.3 Ryan Munger
2025-08-03 59d ELP 6.0f dirt Fast AOC 92 9 10 19.0 F 88 92 82 86 84 92 16.24 Declan Cannon
2025-06-05 40d CD 5.5f turf Firm AOC 92 9 10 7.0 F 95 92 48 84 92 92 9.92 Ben Curtis
2025-04-26 79d CD 6.0f dirt Fast Stk 93 6 7 10.0 F 96 90 82 88 82 93 14.78 Declan Cannon
2025-02-06 46d FG 5.5f turf Firm AOC 92 3 9 2.0 F 76 nan 90 83 77 92 6.8 Declan Cannon
2024-12-22 42d OP 6.0f dirt Fast AOC 92 5 9 6.8 F 73 94 106 94 94 92 8.4 Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2024-11-10 46d CD 5.5f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Alw 90 1 11 0.0 91 92 83 96 92 91 1.52 Luis Saez
2024-09-25 39d CD 5.0f dirt Fast Alw 90 3 11 0.8 F 101 95 nan 94 97 89 1.61 Luis Saez
2024-08-17 28d SAR 6.0f dirt Fast Alw 89 2 7 5.8 106 84 63 95 98 88 19.1 Manuel Franco
2024-07-20 SAR 5.5f turf Firm Alw 89 6 8 5.2 F 70 92 98 84 88 87 5.2 Ricardo Santana, Jr.
1 Give Me the Boots
6M 123 lbs L EP
19.5%
MODEL %
4-1
MODEL FAIR
+5.2
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -5 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class87.3 -0.2 vs race -2.4 gap
MC11.0% fair 8-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.31
Faced87.0 -1.2 vs today
Pace EP86.2 best 100.9
Pace LP83.3 best 90.9
Energy0.55
Connections
JockRyan Mungerκ 0.13
TrnRichard Mordenκ 0.12
J×T4 · 25% win · 50% ITM
Angles
3rd off layoff 14% -22%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 30105333%91.3
2026 20010%85.3
2025 1032030%91.3
WO 2995331%91.3
Synthetic 2895332%91.3
Sprint 30105333%91.3
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-21 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 62 06-21 WO 5 Furlongs :59.60 B 85 06-11 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 54 05-20 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 78 05-12 WO 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 42 05-05 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 38
SIREReload 80 33%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-05 35d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast Stk 88 3 9 2.0 101 87 88 85 82 87 19.7 Ryan Munger
2026-05-31 169d·8.0× WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 87 6 8 8.0 F 89 74 75 80 74 87 8.5 Ryan Munger
2025-12-13 21d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 86 1 10 0.0 93 88 86 91 92 86 5.65 Ryan Munger
2025-11-22 14d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 86 10 10 18.0 81 84 86 72 59 88 2.3 Keveh Nicholls
2025-11-08 33d WO 6.5f synthetic Fast AOC 87 4 12 1.8 F 86 92 91 87 85 88 38.4 Jose Campos
2025-10-06 15d FE 5.5f dirt Fast Str Alw 83 1 5 5.5 nan nan 108 84 79 88 2.85 Jose Campos
2025-09-21 21d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 87 2 6 1.0 S 87 92 86 84 86 88 9.65 Jose Campos
2025-08-31 22d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 87 4 7 2.8 89 84 82 82 83 87 9.7 Jose Campos
2025-08-09 21d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 89 6 6 13.0 F 90 nan 72 75 63 89 14.95 Keveh Nicholls
2025-07-19 WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 87 1 7 0.0 77 nan 74 85 81 88 4.8 Keveh Nicholls
7 Luz de La Luna
7M 123 lbs L P
16.9%
MODEL %
5-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.3
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -1 vs par
Needs +2~30% run that
Class89.3 +1.8 vs race -0.5 gap
MC16.8% fair 5-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced89.8 +1.6 vs today
Pace EP82.9 best 93.9
Pace LP86.2 best 97.2
Energy0.52
Connections
JockJose Camposκ 0.09
TrnDavid Borskκ 0.15
J×T16 · 12% win · 62% ITM
Angles
Jose Campos / David Borsk 18% +21% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 3796724%92.9
2026 40110%92.9
2025 723029%90.5
WO 3596726%90.5
Synthetic 2796333%90.5
Sprint 2786530%90.5
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 43 06-27 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 53 05-25 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 49 04-16 PMM 3 Furlongs :36.10 B 51 04-11 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.90 B 32 03-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.50 B 54
SIREUncaptured 83 77%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-31 36d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 89 2 5 1.0 84 84 84 89 86 89 5.95 Jose Campos
2026-04-25 30d WO 6.5f synthetic Fast AOC 90 3 5 10.2 F 72 90 97 87 75 90 6.3 Ruben Silvera
2026-03-26 75d·2.0× GP 6.0f dirt Fast AOC 91 4 6 10.8 F 85 89 89 90 87 90 6.7 John Velazquez
2026-01-10 70d GP 8.0f turf Firm Stk 91 6 9 5.0 88 nan 94 93 94 90 38.3 David Egan
2025-11-01 14d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 88 2 5 0.1 94 84 85 88 84 90 2.3 Jose Campos
2025-10-18 21d WO 6.5f synthetic Fast AOC 89 1 6 0.0 F 80 91 98 88 84 90 8.45 Jose Campos
2025-09-27 49d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 90 2 7 1.2 S 79 104 128 88 86 90 6.55 Jose Campos
2025-08-09 37d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 89 4 6 1.2 F 83 78 86 86 79 89 1.7 Rafael Hernandez
2025-07-03 47d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 88 2 6 0.1 F 98 92 87 86 87 89 5.05 Jose Campos
2025-05-17 WO 7.0f synthetic Fast AOC 90 5 7 3.0 F 90 nan 80 90 91 89 4.55 Eswan Flores
4 Miss Demanding
4F 123 lbs L EP
8.0%
MODEL %
12-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.2
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -2 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 91 vs par 90
Class88.5 +1.0 vs race -0.3 gap
MC14.5% fair 6-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.25
Faced85.7 -2.5 vs today
Pace EP81.5 best 97.3
Pace LP84.3 best 109.4
Energy0.53
Connections
JockRomero Maraghκ 0.02was John Velazquez · -2.2
TrnBlair Millerκ -0.21was Steven Flint · -3.0
Angles
1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1122318%93.5
2026 0000
2025 722229%93.5
WO 822125%93.5
Synthetic 621033%92.1
Sprint 1022320%93.5
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 51 07-19 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 B 45 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 27 06-28 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 53 06-21 WO 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 44 06-14 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 63
SIRECaravaggio 84 86%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-08-16 21d WO 7.0f synthetic Fast AOC 87 1 8 0.0 F 76 86 82 90 85 88 3.45 John Velazquez
2025-07-26 21d WO 6.5f turf Firm AOC 88 3 9 0.5 F 64 97 109 89 88 87 5.3 Ryan Munger
2025-07-05 48d WO 6.5f turf Firm AOC 86 2 9 0.8 F 97 nan 70 94 94 85 25.5 Ryan Munger
2025-05-18 21d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast MSW 82 1 7 0.0 F 93 83 87 90 89 85 2.5 Ryan Munger
2025-04-27 55d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast MSW 85 2 6 2.0 S 82 83 86 92 87 84 3.05 Ryan Munger
2025-03-03 42d FG 5.5f turf Firm Mdn 82 3 7 4.0 S 72 87 98 92 90 84 24.6 C.J. McMahon
2025-01-20 38d FG 8.0f turf Good MSW 84 7 12 9.0 S 76 98 96 87 79 84 16.1 C.J. McMahon
2024-12-13 55d FG 5.5f turf Firm MSW 84 3 8 5.8 92 nan 85 85 67 84 8.2 C.J. McMahon
2024-10-19 63d WO 6.5f synthetic Fast MSW 83 4 8 5.8 F 104 89 75 84 74 84 9.85 Jason Hoyte
2024-08-17 WO 7.0f synthetic Fast MSW 83 6 10 5.2 F 87 83 72 78 59 86 5.35 Ryan Munger
3 Minimum Forty
4F 125 lbs L E
8.0%
MODEL %
12-1
MODEL FAIR
-17.0
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -4 vs par
Needs +6~6% run that
Class86.9 -0.6 vs race -0.5 gap
MC12.4% fair 7-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.22
Faced85.3 -2.9 vs today
Pace EP81.2 best 95.1
Pace LP85.6 best 112.1
Energy0.54
Connections
JockDaisuke Fukumotoκ 0.13was Eswan Flores · +0.4
TrnRobert Tillerκ 0.19
J×T109 · 23% win · 60% ITM
Angles
Daisuke Fukumoto / Robert Tiller 20% +10%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 531060%88.5
2026 421050%84.9
2025 1100100%88.5
WO 531060%88.5
Synthetic 531060%88.5
Sprint 531060%88.5
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-22 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 60 05-30 WO 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 73 05-05 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 55 04-04 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 67
SIRESouper Speedy 81 57%ile turf 12%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-05 24d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast Stk 88 7 9 6.8 91 nan 96 82 76 88 11.2 Eswan Flores
2026-06-11 27d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast Clm 85 1 6 0.0 79 84 79 85 83 88 0.7 Daisuke Fukumoto
2026-05-15 27d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 85 2 7 1.0 F 95 87 87 84 80 89 1.0 Daisuke Fukumoto
2026-04-18 147d·5.4× WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 87 1 5 0.0 F 74 nan 71 84 77 85 0.65 Daisuke Fukumoto
2025-11-22 WO 6.0f synthetic Fast Mdn 82 1 6 0.0 S 71 91 112 88 85 80 2.7 Daisuke Fukumoto
2 Foresters Exec
4F 123 lbs L P
1.9%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-9.2
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -5 vs par
Needs +7~4% run that
Class86.0 -1.5 vs race -0.8 gap
MC10.9% fair 8-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.28
Faced86.7 -1.5 vs today
Pace EP85.7 best 102.1
Pace LP78.5 best 108.6
Energy0.53
Connections
JockFraser Aeblyκ 0.09
TrnPatrick Dixonκ -0.04
J×T36 · 22% win · 42% ITM
Angles
Fraser Aebly / Patrick Dixon 17% +19%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1442129%86.2
2026 30010%86.2
2025 941044%85.1
WO 1342131%86.2
Synthetic 1232125%86.2
Sprint 1442129%86.2
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 55 ◆Beach Factor·84 06-28 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 57 06-21 WO 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 38 05-02 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 71 04-26 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 61 04-19 WO 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 34
SIREOld Forester 80 43%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-05 35d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast Stk 88 9 9 11.2 102 99 87 79 71 87 21.3 Fraser Aebly
2026-05-31 21d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 89 3 5 1.8 85 88 97 86 85 86 6.3 Fraser Aebly
2026-05-10 169d·5.1× WO 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 88 4 7 4.0 77 71 18 84 81 86 19.6 Romero Maragh
2025-11-22 22d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast AOC 86 1 10 0.0 93 88 77 85 82 84 28.0 Fraser Aebly
2025-10-31 41d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 82 1 6 0.0 89 91 109 85 85 83 3.35 Fraser Aebly
2025-09-20 11d WO 5.0f turf Firm Clm 84 1 6 0.0 F 84 90 83 81 78 81 9.7 Fraser Aebly
2025-09-09 33d FE 6.5f dirt Fast Stk 85 7 10 11.5 F 87 82 98 84 84 80 47.8 Fraser Aebly
2025-08-07 33d WO 6.0f synthetic Fast Mdn 80 1 10 0.0 S 78 nan 89 81 72 80 6.95 Fraser Aebly
2025-07-05 21d WO 6.5f synthetic Fast Mdn 83 5 7 6.0 96 nan 74 80 76 79 14.0 Leo Salles
2025-06-14 WO 7.0f synthetic Fast Mdn 80 7 10 8.5 74 91 92 78 67 79 9.45 Leo Salles