WO 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

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WO 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs ALL WEATHER TRACK

strength

+3.0 salty

win par

fig to beat

LONE SPEED

shape

front favored

HONEST

early pace

1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6

TOP-HEAVY

field

figs 77.0–92.7

Purse $71,700. Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track) (Includes $9,400 – State Bred) (Includes $15,500 – Other Sources) (Plus $15,750 – Other Sources). For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Ontario Sired Maidens Or Three Year Olds And Upward Maiden Claiming Price $40,000. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $40,000.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Written Pages	11% 8-1 / 10/1	8.8%		4th/1w	84 +5.1	85⁴-2	—	85³	88³	T+0.8J-1.5T→S	0%	2∠
2	One Shot Scott	1% 99-1 / 20/1	2.5%		6th/1w	74 -5.1	77⁹-10	72⁴	72⁶	86⁴	▲cls	—	2∠
3	Pretty Vicious	2% 50-1 / 6/1	7.6%	P	2nd/1w	82 +2.9	82⁵-5	82³	82⁵	90¹	T→S	—
4	Plantanita	3% 30-1 / 4/1	10.6%		5th/1w	81 +2.7	86³-1	—	83⁴	89²	T→S	13%	2∠
5	Little Lola	52% 4-5 / 2/1	36.2%	EP	1st/2w	82 +3.1	93¹+6	91¹	89¹	—		—	✓+3.4★PRIME
6	Brandy and Me	0% 99-1 / 12/1	3.7%		8th/1w	—	81⁷-6	—	—	—		6%	2∠
7	Red Symphony	0% 99-1 / 8/1	5.4%		7th/2w	—	82⁵-5	—	—	—		—	2∠
8	Superfly Chick	30% 5-2 / 7/2	22.1%	P	3rd/3w	84 +5.7	90²+3	89²	87²	86⁴	L3★goldCLMT-0.5	17%	⚠-1.35∠
9	Ivy's Mission	0% 99-1 / 15/1	3.0%		9th/3w	—	80⁸-7	—	—	—		—	1∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 LS★ LP » 95/117 Little Lola 3 100/113 Pretty Vicious 8 »» 96/97 Superfly Chick 1 89/88 Written Pages 4 98/80 Plantanita 2 79/93 One Shot Scott 7 » Red Symphony 6 Brandy and Me 9 »» Ivy's Mission

On the lead: 5 · race sets up for front

5 Little Lola ★ PRIME

4F 124 lbs L EP

51.7%

MODEL %

4-5

MODEL FAIR

+18.4

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 +6 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 89 vs par 87

Class81.8 +3.1 vs race +10.9 gap

MC51.2% fair EVEN

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced80.0 -1.7 vs today

Pace EP86.1 best 94.7

Pace LP83.9 best 116.5

Energy0.53

Connections

JockFraser Aeblyκ 0.09was Jose Campos · +0.0

TrnTodd Kettlesonκ 0.09

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	2	1	0%	93.3
2026	4	1	1	0%	90.6
2025	2	1	0	0%	93.3
WO	6	2	1	0%	93.3
Synthetic	6	2	1	0%	93.3
Sprint	6	2	1	0%	93.3
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-12 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 53 06-20 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 64 ★05-31 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 B 76 05-15 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 64 05-03 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 65 04-10 CTM 4 Furlongs :48.00 H 60

SIRESouper Speedy 81 57%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-20 23d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	7	2.0	S	—	—	—	89	78	81	1.55	Jose Campos
2026-06-27 21d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	3	12	2.5	F	77	85	85	91	81	80	10.1	Jose Campos
2026-06-06 14d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	4	10	3.2		95	82	74	88	80	79	6.45	Jose Campos
2026-05-23 203d·9.2×	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	8	12	15.2	F	92	102	116	82	66	82	5.1	Jose Campos
2025-11-01 22d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	4	6	3.8	F	90	82	89	88	78	82	1.7	Jose Campos
2025-10-10	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	79	2	7	0.2		94	85	66	93	86	78	8.5	Jose Campos

8 Superfly Chick

3F 120 lbs L 1 P

29.5%

MODEL %

5-2

MODEL FAIR

+7.3

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 +3 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class84.4 +5.7 vs race +5.3 gap

MC18.3% fair 9-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced82.3 +0.6 vs today

Pace EP82.3 best 95.7

Pace LP87.2 best 97.4

Energy0.52

Connections

JockPietro Moranκ 0.03was Jason Hoyte · +0.4

TrnDonald MacRaeκ 0.25CLAIMEDwas Lorne Richards · -0.5

J×T30 · 17% win · 60% ITM

Angles

3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% Pietro Moran / Donald MacRae 14% -57% Donald MacRae: first-time Lasix 14% -41% First-time Lasix 12% -25%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	1	1	0%	88.9
2026	2	0	0	0%	86.9
2025	4	1	1	0%	88.9
WO	6	1	1	0%	88.9
Synthetic	6	1	1	0%	88.9
Sprint	6	1	1	0%	88.9
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 3 Furlongs :36.00 B G 49 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :52.20 B 19 07-11 WO 3 Furlongs :38.20 B 26 06-21 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 56 06-11 WO 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 28 05-10 WO 4 Furlongs :50.80 B G 39

SIREKantharos 83 80%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 42d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	5	12	4.8	F	82	80	89	87	78	86	3.65	Jason Hoyte
2026-05-16 182d·4.3×	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	7	10	1.8		79	84	96	86	80	85	6.55	Jason Hoyte
2025-11-15 28d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	85	6	7	5.2		80	88	97	83	70	86	5.6	Jason Hoyte
2025-10-18 55d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	4	10	4.0	F	82	87	85	89	77	87	6.45	Jason Hoyte
2025-08-24 22d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	82	3	8	5.0	F	96	85	90	88	83	83	4.15	Jason Hoyte
2025-08-02	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	80	2	7	3.5		80	90	104	88	74	80	20.9	Jason Hoyte

1 Written Pages THIN DATA

3F 120 lbs L

11.3%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

+2.2

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -2 vs par

Needs +2~31% run that

Class83.8 +5.1 vs race +1.2 gap

MC9.0% fair 10-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced82.4 +0.7 vs today

Pace EP82.2 best 88.8

Pace LP81.9 best 87.8

Energynan

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockDesean Bynoeκ -0.09was Kemarie Blackett · -1.5

TrnDevon Gittensκ 0.15was John Mattine · +0.8

J×T10 · 0% win · 20% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd career start 13% -28%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	85.0
2026	1	0%	85.0
2025	0	—	—
WO	1	0%	85.0
Synthetic	0	—	—
Sprint	1	0%	85.0
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 26 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 46 05-29 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 58 05-16 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 57 05-09 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 52 05-01 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 B 46

SIRESignature Red 80 41%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	5	7	5.2		89	94	88	85	75	82	43.4	Kemarie Blackett

4 Plantanita THIN DATA

4F 124 lbs

3.3%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-16.7

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -1 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class81.4 +2.7 vs race +4.5 gap

MC10.9% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced80.3 -1.4 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 98.3

Pace LP80.1 best 80.4

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockJeffrey Aldersonκ 0.08

TrnAngus Buntainκ 0.19

J×T23 · 13% win · 35% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% Jeffrey Alderson / Angus Buntain 8% -38%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	82.7
2026	1	0%	82.7
2025	0	—	—
WO	1	0%	82.7
Synthetic	0	—	—
Sprint	1	0%	82.7
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 20 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 71 06-27 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 45

SIREReload 80 33%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn	80	4	6	5.0		98	78	80	83	69	80	11.95	Jeffrey Alderson

3 Pretty Vicious

3F 120 lbs P

2.4%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.9

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -5 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class81.6 +2.9 vs race +0.6 gap

MC2.0% fair 50-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced80.1 -1.6 vs today

Pace EP83.7 best 100.3

Pace LP93.0 best 113.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockRyan Mungerκ 0.13

TrnKelsey Mayhewκ 0.0

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	0%	82.5
2026	4	1	1	0%	82.5
2025	0	0	0	—	—
WO	4	1	1	0%	82.5
Synthetic	3	1	0	0%	82.5
Sprint	4	1	1	0%	82.5
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-27 WO 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 34 07-06 WO 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 34 06-14 WO 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 31 05-10 WO 4 Furlongs :50.80 B G 40 05-03 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 57 04-28 WO 5 Furlongs 1:04.20 B 26

SIRECandy Ride (Arg) 85 91%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 22d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn	80	3	6	2.8		67	77	113	82	73	81	8.95	Ryan Munger
2026-06-18 20d	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	7	0.8	F	84	82	104	82	72	80	6.9	Ryan Munger
2026-05-29 13d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	78	6	8	3.2		100	85	85	81	64	77	13.05	Ryan Munger
2026-05-16	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	9	10	13.2		95	88	108	78	65	82	15.75	Ryan Munger

2 One Shot Scott THIN DATA

3F 120 lbs L

0.6%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.2

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig77 -10 vs par

Needs +15~<1% run that

Class73.6 -5.1 vs race +3.4 gap

MC0.9% fair 99-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.35

Faced79.0 -2.7 vs today

Pace EP79.9 best 79.4

Pace LP83.2 best 92.7

Energy0.52

Connections

JockDa-Sean Gaskinκ 0.02was Jeffrey Alderson · -0.4

TrnJulie Belhumeurκ -0.18

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	72.4
2026	1	0%	72.4
2025	0	—	—
WO	1	0%	72.4
Synthetic	1	0%	72.4
Sprint	1	0%	72.4
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-23 WO 3 Furlongs :34.20 B 63 06-27 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 52 06-14 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 64 05-26 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 53 ◆Haileys Olivia 05-12 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 47 05-02 WO 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 53

SIREMr. Scotty 79 21%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	79	9	9	13.0	S	79	90	93	72	56	78	15.9	Jeffrey Alderson

7 Red Symphony

4F 124 lbs

0.5%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.6

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -5 vs par

MC3.5% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockSahin Civaciκ 0.17

TrnJohn Mattineκ 0.04

Angles

Debut 11% -25% John Mattine: debut 4% -64%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 3 Furlongs :36.80 B G 42 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 52 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 40 06-27 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 77 06-20 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 56 06-12 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 58

SIREKantharos 83 80%ile 1st-out 19% (452) turf 14%

No prior races in database

6 Brandy and Me

3F 120 lbs L 1

0.4%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.3

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig81 -6 vs par

MC3.0% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockJason Hoyteκ 0.0

TrnEvette Chartrand-Hoekκ 0.14

J×T17 · 6% win · 35% ITM

Angles

Debut 11% -25% Jason Hoyte / Evette Chartrand-Hoek 6% -69%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 46 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 58 07-06 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 55 06-23 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 50 06-13 WO 3 Furlongs :39.00 B 20 06-03 WO 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 45

SIRESilent Name (Jpn) 81 45%ile 1st-out 15% (136) turf 18%

No prior races in database

9 Ivy's Mission

3F 120 lbs

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.0

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -7 vs par

MC1.1% fair 99-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockLuis Contrerasκ 0.07

TrnPeter Berringerκ -0.07

Angles

Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS ★07-22 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 67 06-27 WO 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 B G 31 06-07 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 61 05-31 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 64 05-21 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 54 05-10 WO 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 41

SIRESouper Speedy 81 57%ile 1st-out 14% (166) turf 12%

No prior races in database