WO 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 S R3 T R4 S R5 T R6 S R7 S R8 T R9 S R10 S

Purse $125,000. Five Furlongs. (Inner turf) (Includes $16,700 – State Bred) (Includes $25,000 – Other Sources) (Plus $17,125 – Other Sources). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won $9,000 Once Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Restricted Allowance Or Two Year Old And Three Year Old Restricted State Bred/state Sired Sweepstakes Or Sales Sweepstakes Or Which Have Never Won Two Races Or Claiming Price $32,000. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since June 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $32,000, if for $30,000, allowed 2 Lbs. (Any Maiden Races, And Only Claiming Races And OnlyStarter Races For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered For Allowances). (In Event This Race Comes Off The Turf It Will Be Contested At 5 & 1/2 Furlongs On The Main Track).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Breezero ✓	8% 12-1 / 7/5	22.9%	S	6th/1w	91 +4.0	86⁴-3	89²	84⁴	86³	L3	—	1∠
2	Xarabella ✓	4% 25-1 / 6/1	8.4%	P	4th/1w	88 +0.4	82⁶-7	—	84⁴	80⁵	L3★goldJ-1.3S→T	—	2∠
3	Chromeplated Heart ✓	12% 7-1 / 3/1	16.7%	P	5th/1w	89 +1.5	89¹+0	88³	88¹	80⁵		12%	1∠
4	Justine ✓	2% 30-1 / 9/2	9.6%	EP	3rd/3w	87 -0.3	89¹+0	88³	84⁴	86³		27%	1∠
5	Rule the Waves ✓	41% 7-5 / 12/1	20.0%	E	1st/4w	88 +0.4	86⁴-3	—	85²	89²	L3S→T	20%	⚠-3.0★PRIME2∠
6	Midnight Martini	32% 2-1 / 4/1	22.3%	E	2nd/4w	91 +3.7	88³-1	91¹	85²	91¹	▲cls	21%	1∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 21.6s par 22.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 HOLDS »»» 95/93 Rule the Waves 6 »»» 99/83 Midnight Martini 4 »» 89/90 Justine 2 94/85 Xarabella 3 LP 102/103 Chromeplated Heart 1 90/99 Breezero

On the lead: 5, 6 · race sets up for closers

5 Rule the Waves ★ PRIME

5M 123 lbs L E

40.9%

MODEL %

7-5

MODEL FAIR

+33.2

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -3 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class87.8 +0.4 vs race -1.3 gap

MC17.6% fair 9-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced84.8 -3.5 vs today

Pace EP83.8 best 95.3

Pace LP80.4 best 92.6

Energy0.54

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockEswan Floresκ 0.1

TrnShelley Fitzgeraldκ 0.22

J×T5 · 20% win · 40% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	90.5
2026	2	0	1	0%	85.4
2025	0	0	0	—	—
WO	4	1	1	25%	90.5
Turf	0	0	0	—	—
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	90.5
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-20 WO 3 Furlongs :38.60 B 30 05-23 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 52 05-16 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 58 ★05-09 WO 3 Furlongs :35.00 B 49 05-02 WO 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 45 ★04-25 WO 2 Furlongs :24.40 B 56

SIREAstern (Aus) 82 66%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 36d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	87	5	5	4.0	S	86	85	93	85	79	87	3.75	Eswan Flores
2026-06-05 664d·18.4×	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	83	2	8	1.2	F	75	nan	76	85	79	87	3.35	Eswan Flores
2024-08-10 20d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	88	7	8	6.2	F	90	nan	70	82	80	87	5.75	Jose Campos
2024-07-21	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	81	1	6	0.0		95	nan	84	90	89	82	12.65	Jose Campos

6 Midnight Martini

3F 120 lbs L E

32.1%

MODEL %

2-1

MODEL FAIR

+12.1

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -1 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class91.1 +3.7 vs race -2.6 gap

MC13.5% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced88.6 +0.3 vs today

Pace EP84.5 best 98.6

Pace LP74.9 best 82.8

Energy0.54

Connections

JockFraser Aeblyκ 0.09

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T73 · 21% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Fraser Aebly / Mark Casse 19% -45%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	90.7
2026	4	1	1	25%	90.7
2025	0	0	0	—	—
WO	1	0	0	0%	85.0
Turf	3	1	0	33%	90.7
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	90.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-24 WO 3 Furlongs :34.40 B 60 07-10 WO 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 30 07-04 WO 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 31 05-28 WO 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 69 05-22 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 59 04-12 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 48

SIREYaupon 88 97%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-06 37d	WO	5.0f	turf	Good	AOC	86	4	7	1.2		99	nan	83	85	76	91	1.3	Fraser Aebly
2026-04-30 56d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	G3	93	8	9	11.8		84	73	54	86	82	91	16.87	Javier Castellano
2026-03-05 34d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Alw	89	2	5	3.0	F	74	79	65	85	83	92	1.4	Javier Castellano
2026-01-30	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	1	10	0.0	F	94	nan	82	91	91	87	9.8	Javier Castellano

3 Chromeplated Heart

8M 123 lbs L P

12.2%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.8

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 0 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class88.9 +1.5 vs race +0.1 gap

MC23.9% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced88.3 0.0 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 101.5

Pace LP85.0 best 103.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJeffrey Aldersonκ 0.08

TrnDebra Rombisκ 0.09

J×T83 · 12% win · 42% ITM

Angles

Jeffrey Alderson / Debra Rombis 13% -5%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	39	5	8	12	13%	90.9
2026	4	1	0	1	25%	88.5
2025	7	0	2	0	0%	89.0
WO	21	3	4	4	14%	89.0
Turf	20	2	2	10	10%	90.9
Sprint	39	5	8	12	13%	90.9
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 45 07-15 WO 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 33 06-18 WO 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 40 05-03 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 55 04-11 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 66

SIREKantharos 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 27d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	3	6	2.0	F	102	55	59	88	83	88	5.2	Jeffrey Alderson
2026-05-31 22d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	5	5	6.0		85	92	103	85	79	89	10.3	Jeffrey Alderson
2026-05-09 21d	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	4	6	9.0	F	75	96	100	82	76	90	16.65	Jeffrey Alderson
2026-04-18 203d·9.2×	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	88	1	7	0.0		86	106	85	88	83	89	7.2	Jeffrey Alderson
2025-09-27 27d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	90	4	7	4.8	S	89	86	93	86	82	89	23.15	Jeffrey Alderson
2025-08-31 22d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	89	6	7	4.5		92	nan	82	88	84	89	25.9	Jeffrey Alderson
2025-08-09 21d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	2	6	0.2	F	88	81	91	86	80	88	12.75	Jeffrey Alderson
2025-07-19 16d	WO	6.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	6	7	5.8	S	81	83	70	87	88	88	50.8	Jeffrey Alderson
2025-07-03 35d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	88	5	6	3.8	F	87	85	93	83	82	88	11.0	Jeffrey Alderson
2025-05-29	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	4	5	10.2	F	87	nan	80	83	84	89	6.75	Jeffrey Alderson

1 Breezero

5M 125 lbs L S

8.0%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-33.7

EDGE vs ML

7/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -3 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class91.4 +4.0 vs race -5.9 gap

MC14.5% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced89.4 +1.1 vs today

Pace EP82.5 best 89.9

Pace LP84.6 best 99.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockRomero Maraghκ 0.02

TrnEdgar Mendozaκ -0.06

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	22	7	2	4	32%	93.9
2026	5	1	0	2	20%	90.3
2025	9	3	1	1	33%	90.5
WO	8	3	1	1	38%	88.7
Turf	9	3	1	1	33%	88.7
Sprint	22	7	2	4	32%	93.9
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-19 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 53 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 50 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 53 05-30 WO 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 40 05-15 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 44 05-08 WO 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 38

SIREBucchero 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 15d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	4	6	5.2		90	77	83	84	86	92	4.4	Romero Maragh
2026-06-27 105d·2.9×	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	1	6	0.0	F	86	nan	85	89	86	92	2.55	Romero Maragh
2026-03-14 36d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	92	3	8	3.2	F	83	90	95	90	92	92	13.3	David Egan
2026-02-06 27d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	4	8	3.0	S	81	90	99	87	78	91	9.7	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-01-10 69d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	3	8	1.5	F	80	80	76	88	94	90	3.2	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-11-02 21d	WO	5.0f	turf	Good	AOC	88	1	7	0.0		90	78	94	86	85	89	0.9	Eswan Flores
2025-10-12 44d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	2	5	0.2		78	80	91	89	88	89	7.7	Eswan Flores
2025-08-29 22d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	86	4	8	1.8		84	102	104	83	79	90	1.35	Sahin Civaci
2025-08-07 82d·2.3×	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	85	1	7	0.0	F	84	98	83	87	90	90	1.35	Sahin Civaci
2025-05-17	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	86	5	6	4.8	F	91	80	83	85	83	91	2.4	Rafael Hernandez

2 Xarabella

4F 123 lbs L P

4.2%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -7 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class87.8 +0.4 vs race -5.7 gap

MC4.7% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced85.5 -2.8 vs today

Pace EP80.3 best 94.3

Pace LP79.1 best 85.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockPietro Moranκ 0.03was Sahin Civaci · -1.3

TrnM P De Pauloκ 0.0

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	1	2	4	10%	92.0
2026	2	0	0	1	0%	85.0
2025	7	1	2	3	14%	92.0
WO	10	1	2	4	10%	92.0
Turf	1	0	0	1	0%	80.3
Sprint	9	1	2	3	11%	92.0
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 30 06-28 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 41 06-07 WO 5 Furlongs :59.60 B 87 05-30 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 64 05-23 WO 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 76 05-16 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 56

SIRECairo Prince 84 83%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 21d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	88	3	5	5.8	F	77	93	82	84	84	88	2.9	Sahin Civaci
2026-06-13 203d·7.2×	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	87	5	10	4.2	F	75	nan	69	85	79	88	4.55	David Moran
2025-11-22 28d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	86	4	10	1.0		73	94	85	86	81	86	9.05	David Moran
2025-10-25 49d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	83	1	9	0.0		83	85	71	86	80	86	1.85	Pietro Moran
2025-09-06 14d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	3	7	2.2	F	94	95	85	84	84	86	1.25	David Moran
2025-08-23 42d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	84	3	8	1.2	F	87	93	91	86	89	86	2.15	David Moran
2025-07-12 28d	WO	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	3	10	1.2	F	85	85	84	80	79	86	1.85	David Moran
2025-06-14 20d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	2	13	2.2		85	78	81	86	83	85	2.1	David Moran
2025-05-25 316d·11.3×	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	2	9	1.5	F	73	83	73	92	92	84	9.5	David Moran
2024-07-13	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	6	11	5.0		84	nan	94	83	75	82	17.35	David Moran

4 Justine

4F 123 lbs L EP

2.5%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.7

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 0 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class87.1 -0.3 vs race +1.8 gap

MC25.8% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced84.3 -4.0 vs today

Pace EP81.2 best 89.1

Pace LP80.0 best 90.0

Energy0.54

Connections

JockRafael Hernandezκ 0.12

TrnDale Desruisseauxκ 0.09

J×T101 · 27% win · 52% ITM

Angles

Rafael Hernandez / Dale Desruisseaux 24% +12%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	1	1	3	14%	90.2
2026	5	1	1	2	20%	90.2
2025	2	0	0	1	0%	87.9
WO	5	1	1	2	20%	90.2
Turf	4	0	0	2	0%	87.9
Sprint	7	1	1	3	14%	90.2
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-11 WO 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 42 05-02 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 58 04-11 WO 3 Furlongs :37.80 B G 34 04-04 WO 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 74

SIREJustify 88 96%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 21d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	6	6	8.2	F	81	92	90	84	73	88	4.1	Rafael Hernandez
2026-06-06 7d	WO	5.0f	turf	Good	AOC	86	3	7	0.1		89	nan	81	88	77	86	6.75	Pietro Moran
2026-05-30 20d	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	1	7	0.0		82	nan	78	90	83	86	1.95	Rafael Hernandez
2026-05-10 22d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	3	5	3.8		79	83	67	84	69	86	1.2	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2026-04-18 156d·7.1×	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	84	2	6	1.2		79	nan	83	88	78	86	2.7	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2025-11-13 84d·3.8×	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	3	12	0.8		89	nan	82	88	84	79	4.61	Jose Ortiz
2025-08-21	SAR	5.5f	turf	Good	MSW	87	10	11	17.8	F	79	93	nan	83	74	87	6.9	Victor Espinoza