WO 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 S R3 T R4 S R5 T R6 S R7 S R8 T R9 S R10 S

WO 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs ALL WEATHER TRACK

strength

+0.5 fair

win par

fig to beat

LONE SPEED

shape

front favored

HONEST

early pace

1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6

TOP-HEAVY

field

figs 80.4–92.5

Purse $86,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track) For Auction Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 121 Lbs. Those Canadian Bred Foals of 2024 which went through the Sales as Yearlings or Weanlings at a sale conducted by the CTHS (ONT.DIV) at Woodbine, on which the Maximum Commission was paid shall be eligible. CTHS have provided a certified list of eligible horses.*No Canadian Bred Allowance*.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Redempton Song	0% 99-1 / 20/1	2.2%		11th/1w	—	80¹³-9	—	—	—		—	1∠
2	Red Destiny	2% 50-1 / 10/1	4.7%	S	2nd/1w	83 +0.5	84⁶-5	81⁵	81⁵	90³	▲cls	15%	1∠
3	Maria Sofia	0% 99-1 / 15/1	2.8%		8th/1w	—	82⁹-7	—	—	—		7%	1∠
4	Willing Guest	11% 8-1 / 4/1	13.5%	S	13th/1w	85 +2.4	88²-1	86²	86²	93²	J+0.5	24%	1∠
5	March	13% 7-1 / 3/1	16.5%		4th/1w	84 +1.9	88²-1	85³	85³	85⁶		17%	2∠
6	Flatter for Cat	0% 99-1 / 20/1	2.2%		6th/1w	79 -3.5	83⁸-6	77⁷	77⁶	88⁵	▲cls	27%	2∠
7	Mara River	0% 99-1 / 15/1	2.8%		9th/1w	—	82⁹-7	—	—	—		11%	2∠
8	Kuz I'm Charming	0% 99-1 / 12/1	3.5%		10th/1w	—	84⁶-5	—	—	—		4%	3∠
9	Honor My Legacy	2% 50-1 / 10/1	4.9%		5th/2w	81 -0.9	88²-1	85³	85³	104¹	▲cls	38%	2∠
10	Francine's Honour	0% 99-1 / 6/1	6.5%		7th/2w	—	85⁵-4	—	—	—		17%	2∠
11	Sweet Bordeaux	71% 2-5 / 5/1	35.9%		3rd/2w	86 +4.1	92¹+3	92¹	92¹	81⁷		40%	✓+2.2★PRIME3∠
12	Breezing Easy	0% 99-1 / 20/1	2.2%	EP	1st/4w	78 -4.5	82⁹-7	78⁶	74⁷	90³	J+1.0▲cls	—
13	Whitemudwest	0% 99-1 / 20/1	2.2%		12th/3w	—	82⁹-7	—	—	—		0%	1∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 12 LS★ HOLDS »»» 97/94 Breezing Easy 2 LP 87/103 Red Destiny 11 » 99/62 Sweet Bordeaux 5 LP 63/106 March 9 » 111/96 Honor My Legacy 6 93/83 Flatter for Cat 10 » Francine's Honour 3 Maria Sofia 7 Mara River 8 Kuz I'm Charming 1 Redempton Song 13 »» Whitemudwest 4 102/98 Willing Guest

On the lead: 12 · race sets up for front

11 Sweet Bordeaux ★ PRIME THIN DATA

2F 121 lbs L 1

71.1%

MODEL %

2-5

MODEL FAIR

+54.4

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 +3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 92 vs par 89

Class86.4 +4.1 vs race +6.1 gap

MC29.9% fair 5-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.46

Faced82.4 -0.4 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 99.1

Pace LP75.6 best 62.4

Energy0.51

Connections

JockPietro Moranκ 0.03

TrnStuart Simonκ 0.41

J×T5 · 40% win · 60% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% First-time Lasix 12% -25% Stuart Simon: first-time Lasix 5% -36%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	91.5
2026	1	1	0%	91.5
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	1	1	0%	91.5
Synthetic	1	1	0%	91.5
Sprint	1	1	0%	91.5
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-19 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 57 ★06-19 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 68 ◆Alberta Pharoah 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B G 32 05-24 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 36 05-17 WO 3 Furlongs :36.60 B G 44 05-10 WO 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 36

SIRETom'S D'Etat 84 86%ile turf 13%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	3	6	2.0	S	99	83	62	92	77	82	18.25	Pietro Moran

5 March THIN DATA

2F 121 lbs L

13.1%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.9

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -1 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class84.2 +1.9 vs race +4.2 gap

MC15.4% fair 5-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced82.4 -0.4 vs today

Pace EP75.8 best 63.0

Pace LP86.6 best 106.2

Energy0.51

Connections

JockEmma-Jayne Wilsonκ 0.08was Rafael Hernandez · -0.3

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T23 · 17% win · 35% ITM

Angles

Emma-Jayne Wilson / Mark Casse 16% -24% 2nd career start 13% -28%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	85.3
2026	1	0%	85.3
2025	0	—	—
WO	1	0%	85.3
Synthetic	1	0%	85.3
Sprint	1	0%	85.3
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 58 06-05 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 54 05-30 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 60 ★05-23 WO 3 Furlongs :35.80 B G 47

SIRECross Traffic 82 64%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-13	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	5	6	4.8		63	86	106	85	70	82	2.2	Rafael Hernandez

4 Willing Guest THIN DATA

2F 121 lbs L S

11.2%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.8

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -1 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class84.7 +2.4 vs race +3.2 gap

MC13.7% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced82.4 -0.4 vs today

Pace EP86.3 best 102.5

Pace LP82.4 best 97.7

Energy0.50

Connections

JockRafael Hernandezκ 0.12was Emma-Jayne Wilson · +0.5

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T89 · 24% win · 48% ITM

Angles

Rafael Hernandez / Mark Casse 22% -9%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	0%	85.6
2026	2	1	0%	85.6
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	2	1	0%	85.6
Synthetic	2	1	0%	85.6
Sprint	2	1	0%	85.6
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 34 06-19 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 65 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 60 05-21 WO 3 Furlongs :36.60 B G 43 ◆Knight Storm 05-08 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 49 ◆Alcatraz Island 05-01 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 H 49

SIREWar Of Will 84 84%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 27d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	4	6	5.0	S	89	nan	98	86	73	86	2.95	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2026-05-31	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	2	6	3.0	F	102	84	74	83	69	82	4.3	Emma-Jayne Wilson

9 Honor My Legacy THIN DATA

2F 121 lbs L

2.1%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.0

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -1 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class81.4 -0.9 vs race +6.5 gap

MC12.5% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced79.8 -3.0 vs today

Pace EP87.8 best 111.4

Pace LP83.9 best 95.5

Energy0.50

Connections

JockSahin Civaciκ 0.17

TrnMichael Mattineκ 0.25

J×T24 · 38% win · 62% ITM

Angles

Sahin Civaci / Michael Mattine 33% -7% 2nd career start 13% -28%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	85.0
2026	1	1	0%	85.0
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	1	1	0%	85.0
Synthetic	1	1	0%	85.0
Sprint	1	1	0%	85.0
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :50.40 B G 37 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 57 06-28 WO 3 Furlongs :36.80 B G 37 06-21 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.40 H 45 06-14 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 47 06-07 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 54

SIREYorkton 84 87%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	7	5.0	S	111	95	96	85	76	80	9.35	Sahin Civaci

2 Red Destiny THIN DATA

2F 121 lbs S

1.6%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.5

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

Needs +8~6% run that

Class82.8 +0.5 vs race +1.4 gap

MC3.9% fair 25-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced79.8 -3.0 vs today

Pace EP82.7 best 87.3

Pace LP87.4 best 103.4

Energy0.51

Connections

JockLeo Sallesκ 0.12

TrnAbraham Katryanκ -0.02

J×T68 · 15% win · 46% ITM

Angles

Leo Salles / Abraham Katryan 11% -42%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	0%	81.3
2026	2	1	0%	81.3
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	2	1	0%	81.3
Synthetic	2	1	0%	81.3
Sprint	2	1	0%	81.3
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 64 06-12 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 H 58 05-31 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 45 05-23 WO 3 Furlongs :36.60 B G 40 05-07 WO 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 41 ◆Marietta Babe 04-24 WO 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 37

SIRESignature Red 80 41%ile turf 13%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 22d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	2	6	0.8		86	104	94	81	71	82	3.6	Leo Salles
2026-06-20	WO	4.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	4	8	4.8	S	87	79	103	80	68	80	10.8	Leo Salles

6 Flatter for Cat THIN DATA

2F 121 lbs

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.6

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -6 vs par

Needs +12~2% run that

Class78.8 -3.5 vs race +4.3 gap

MC3.6% fair 25-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.47

Faced79.8 -3.0 vs today

Pace EP83.3 best 93.2

Pace LP80.7 best 83.0

Energy0.50

Connections

JockRyan Mungerκ 0.13

TrnJosie Carrollκ 0.63

J×T22 · 27% win · 55% ITM

Angles

Ryan Munger / Josie Carroll 24% +65% 2nd career start 13% -28%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	77.2
2026	1	0%	77.2
2025	0	—	—
WO	1	0%	77.2
Synthetic	1	0%	77.2
Sprint	1	0%	77.2
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-27 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 76 07-21 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 53 ◆Bells Of Paradise·90 07-13 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 48 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 53 06-13 WO 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 40 06-05 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 41

SIREAvie'S Flatter 100 100%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20	WO	4.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	6	8	8.2	S	93	96	83	77	62	80	7.55	Ryan Munger

12 Breezing Easy THIN DATA

2F 121 lbs L EP

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.6

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -7 vs par

Needs +13~2% run that

Class77.8 -4.5 vs race +3.7 gap

MC2.2% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced79.8 -3.0 vs today

Pace EP84.5 best 96.7

Pace LP81.6 best 94.3

Energy0.52

Connections

JockLeonel Reyesκ 0.2was Fraser Aebly · +1.0

TrnJohn Rossκ 0.09

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	77.6
2026	2	0%	77.6
2025	0	—	—
WO	2	0%	77.6
Synthetic	2	0%	77.6
Sprint	2	0%	77.6
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 73 07-02 WO 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 H 46 06-11 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 42 05-31 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 45 05-22 WO 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 51 ◆Hesatrooper ★05-15 WO 2 Furlongs :23.00 B 70 ◆Hesatrooper

SIRESouper Speedy 81 57%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 22d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	6	7	13.2	S	86	90	94	74	65	82	5.75	Fraser Aebly
2026-06-20	WO	4.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	80	5	8	4.8	S	97	89	74	78	68	80	2.6	Fraser Aebly

10 Francine's Honour

2F 121 lbs L 1

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.2

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -4 vs par

MC5.4% fair 20-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockRomero Maraghκ 0.02

TrnKevin Attardκ 0.48

J×T12 · 17% win · 58% ITM

Angles

Kevin Attard: debut 16% -8% Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 61

SIREAmerican Pharoah 86 93%ile 1st-out 14% (336) turf 16%

No prior races in database

3 Maria Sofia

2F 121 lbs L 1

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -7 vs par

MC3.3% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockKeveh Nichollsκ 0.06

TrnMatt Douglasκ 0.11

J×T15 · 7% win · 60% ITM

Angles

Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 79 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 66 07-12 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 60 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 65 06-28 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 55 ★05-29 WO 3 Furlongs :35.00 B 53

SIREClassic Empire 84 87%ile 1st-out 17% (211) turf 14%

No prior races in database

7 Mara River

2F 121 lbs L 1

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -7 vs par

MC3.2% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockEswan Floresκ 0.1

TrnDarwin Banachκ 0.09

J×T9 · 11% win · 22% ITM

Angles

Debut 11% -25% Darwin Banach: debut 8% -40%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 68 07-19 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 56 07-12 WO 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 42 07-05 WO 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 45 06-28 WO 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 29 06-21 WO 2 Furlongs :24.80 B 42

SIREShaman Ghost 81 47%ile 1st-out 6% (101) turf 8%

No prior races in database

8 Kuz I'm Charming

2F 121 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.6

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

MC3.0% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockFraser Aeblyκ 0.09

TrnBarbara Minshallκ 0.31

J×T28 · 4% win · 43% ITM

Angles

Barbara Minshall: debut 14% +29% Debut 11% -25% Fraser Aebly / Barbara Minshall 3% -68%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 53 ★07-10 WO 3 Furlongs :36.40 B G 45 07-03 WO 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 50 06-24 WO 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 37 06-17 WO 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 23 ★06-04 WO 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 43

SIRETamarkuz 82 69%ile 1st-out 22% (59) turf 13%

No prior races in database

1 Redempton Song

2F 121 lbs L 1

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.7

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -9 vs par

MC2.4% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockJeffrey Aldersonκ 0.08

TrnCarlton Teapeκ -0.04

Angles

Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :50.20 B G 39 07-19 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 59 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 45 06-28 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 56 06-21 WO 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 52 06-14 WO 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 44

SIREFrac Daddy 80 37%ile 1st-out 16% (85) turf 15%

No prior races in database

13 Whitemudwest

2F 121 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.7

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -7 vs par

MC1.6% fair 50-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockJose Camposκ 0.09

TrnTodd Kettlesonκ 0.09

J×T6 · 0% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
WO	—	—
Synthetic	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-23 WO 4 Furlongs :50.20 B G 42 07-10 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.60 B 46 07-03 WO 4 Furlongs :52.20 B G 26 06-12 WO 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 32 ★06-01 WO 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 41 ★05-23 WO 2 Furlongs :24.40 B 50

SIRESouper Speedy 81 57%ile 1st-out 14% (166) turf 12%

No prior races in database