WO 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 S R3 T R4 S R5 T R6 S R7 S R8 T R9 S R10 S

Purse $125,500. Five Furlongs. (Inner turf) (Includes $17,800 – State Bred) (Includes $26,700 – Other Sources) (Plus $21,125 – Other Sources). For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. (In Event This Race Comes Off The Turf It Will Be Contested At 5 & 1/2 Furlongs On The Main Track).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Sienna Aura	7% 12-1 / 10/1	7.2%	P	6th/1w	79 -3.0	83⁴-4	—	80⁵	90⁴	L1S→T	19%	5∠
2	Lovely Summer	0% 99-1 / 15/1	2.9%	P	3rd/1w	77 -5.0	79⁶-8	—	57⁶	85⁵	L1T-0.3D→T	—	✓+2.58∠
3	Alpha Gamma Girl	31% 2-1 / 3/1	24.2%	EP	2nd/2w	84 +1.7	94¹+7	90¹	88¹	100¹		0%	✓+3.41∠
4	Refinement	11% 8-1 / 6/1	11.1%	P	5th/1w	80 -2.6	93²+6	89²	82³	94²	CLMT+2.7J-0.9S→Trte→spr	12%	4∠
5	Charmingly Evasive	9% 10-1 / 5/2	16.8%	E	1st/4w	83 +1.0	87³+0	—	81⁴	94²	L1S→T▼cls	17%	5∠
6	Lakota Lady	41% 7-5 / 6/5	37.8%	EP	4th/4w	85 +3.0	83⁴-4	—	85²	78⁶	L1T-3.5S→T▼cls	—	★PRIME2∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.1s par 22.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 LS★ HOLDS »»» 92/105 Charmingly Evasive 3 LP » 106/110 Alpha Gamma Girl 2 82/104 Lovely Summer 6 »»» 90/107 Lakota Lady 4 LP 104/110 Refinement 1 95/88 Sienna Aura

On the lead: 5 · race sets up for front

6 Lakota Lady ★ PRIME

3F 120 lbs L EP

41.4%

MODEL %

7-5

MODEL FAIR

-4.1

EDGE vs ML

6/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -4 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 87 vs par 87

Class85.3 +3.0 vs race -2.1 gap

MC4.7% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced87.2 +5.7 vs today

Pace EP79.9 best 90.1

Pace LP83.0 best 106.9

Energy0.54

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockRafael Hernandezκ 0.12was Sofia Vives · +0.3

TrnBlair Millerκ -0.21was Preston Ferris · -3.5

Angles

1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	2	0%	91.8
2026	4	2	0%	91.8
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	2	1	0%	91.1
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	4	2	0%	91.8
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 58 07-19 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 63 07-12 WO 5 Furlongs :58.40 B 80 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 77 05-08 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.20 B 72 04-18 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 62

SIREArmy Mule 84 86%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-16 21d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	89	5	6	9.0	F	90	81	65	85	83	87	3.15	Sofia Vives
2026-04-25 43d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	90	2	7	1.0	S	59	84	88	91	89	85	3.65	Rafael Hernandez
2026-03-13 27d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	5	6	10.8	F	81	94	107	84	86	89	0.8	Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
2026-02-14	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	2	9	0.5	F	90	nan	81	92	97	85	13.1	Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.

3 Alpha Gamma Girl

5M 124 lbs EP

31.4%

MODEL %

2-1

MODEL FAIR

+6.4

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 +7 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 90 vs par 87

Class84.0 +1.7 vs race +9.5 gap

MC44.9% fair 6-5

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced82.4 +0.9 vs today

Pace EP88.7 best 105.5

Pace LP87.6 best 109.5

Energy0.53

Connections

JockFraser Aeblyκ 0.09

TrnDarren Glennonκ -0.06

J×T6 · 0% win · 67% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	3	2	0%	90.1
2026	3	2	1	0%	90.1
2025	3	1	0	0%	90.1
WO	7	3	2	0%	90.1
Turf	4	3	1	0%	90.1
Sprint	7	3	2	0%	90.1
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-12 WO 5 Furlongs 1:00.20 B 74 ◆Seattle Rising 05-16 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 50 05-09 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 51 ◆Seattle Rising 05-02 WO 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 45 ◆Seattle Rising 04-25 WO 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 50 04-18 WO 2 Furlongs :26.00 B 30

SIRESouper Speedy 81 57%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 20d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn	80	2	6	0.2		95	90	104	88	77	84	0.95	Fraser Aebly
2026-06-20 21d	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	2	7	1.8		98	94	110	90	81	83	2.9	Fraser Aebly
2026-05-30 170d·6.5×	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	3	7	2.2		83	nan	88	90	79	82	10.65	Fraser Aebly
2025-12-11 26d	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	83	6	8	10.8	S	nan	nan	77	83	71	83	17.85	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2025-11-15 14d	WO	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	84	7	7	8.2	F	106	nan	83	82	70	84	7.0	Luis Contreras
2025-11-01 469d·18.0×	WO	5.0f	turf	Good	MSW	82	2	6	2.8		73	81	62	90	82	82	9.9	Jose Campos
2024-07-20	WO	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn	80	3	7	4.2		90	95	103	85	75	80	16.35	Luis Contreras

4 Refinement THIN DATA

3F 120 lbs L P

11.2%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 +6 vs par

Needs +6~11% run that

Class79.7 -2.6 vs race +13.0 gap

MC34.2% fair 2-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced80.9 -0.6 vs today

Pace EP84.1 best 103.9

Pace LP89.0 best 110.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockRomero Maraghκ 0.02was Leo Salles · -0.9

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47CLAIMEDwas Michael De Paulo · +2.7

J×T25 · 12% win · 36% ITM

Angles

Mark Casse: first-time turf 14% -23% Romero Maragh / Mark Casse 12% -32% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	88.7
2026	3	1	0%	88.7
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	3	1	0%	88.7
Turf	1	1	0%	88.7
Sprint	2	1	0%	88.7
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 50 06-28 WO 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 71 06-06 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 57 05-29 WO 5 Furlongs 1:02.60 B 47 05-09 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 65 05-02 WO 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 B 46

SIREKantharos 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 23d	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn	81	4	8	5.8	S	104	83	85	82	74	79	6.35	Leo Salles
2026-06-11 26d	WO	7.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn	79	2	8	3.5	S	72	84	99	89	78	74	20.0	Leo Salles
2026-05-16	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	10	10	19.0		89	100	110	73	57	82	5.1	Leo Salles

5 Charmingly Evasive THIN DATA

3F 120 lbs L E

8.6%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-20.0

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 0 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class83.3 +1.0 vs race +3.7 gap

MC10.8% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced84.2 +2.7 vs today

Pace EP83.5 best 92.3

Pace LP88.3 best 105.1

Energy0.52

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockEmma-Jayne Wilsonκ 0.08was Rafael Hernandez · -0.3

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T23 · 17% win · 35% ITM

Angles

Emma-Jayne Wilson / Mark Casse 16% -24% Mark Casse: off layoff (60d+) 15% -22% Mark Casse: first-time turf 14% -23% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	0%	87.2
2026	2	1	0%	87.2
2025	0	0	—	—
WO	2	1	0%	87.2
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	2	1	0%	87.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 62 ★06-18 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 69 ★06-11 WO 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 74 05-15 WO 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 73 05-09 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 55 04-19 WO 4 Furlongs :50.60 B G 40

SIRECharlatan 88 97%ile turf 20%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-23 27d	WO	7.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	84	6	10	7.5		92	92	96	81	68	85	6.05	Rafael Hernandez
2026-04-26	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	85	2	7	3.8	S	85	86	105	87	76	82	2.2	Rafael Hernandez

1 Sienna Aura THIN DATA

3F 120 lbs L P

7.3%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-1.8

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -4 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class79.3 -3.0 vs race +3.3 gap

MC3.3% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced82.4 +0.9 vs today

Pace EP82.8 best 94.6

Pace LP82.6 best 88.0

Energy0.53

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockPietro Moranκ 0.03was Luis Contreras · -0.4

TrnDarwin Banachκ 0.09

J×T42 · 19% win · 45% ITM

Angles

Pietro Moran / Darwin Banach 20% +41% Darwin Banach: off layoff (60d+) 14% -10% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Darwin Banach: first-time turf 11% +4% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	0%	80.3
2026	0	0	—	—
2025	2	1	0%	80.3
WO	2	1	0%	80.3
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	2	1	0%	80.3
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 WO 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 47 07-12 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 47 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 68 06-28 WO 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 44 05-03 WO 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 62 04-26 WO 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 54

SIREYaupon 88 97%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-11-23 22d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	3	9	10.2		95	91	85	80	70	79	8.3	Luis Contreras
2025-11-01	WO	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	8	8	11.8		79	90	88	80	67	82	5.1	Eswan Flores

2 Lovely Summer THIN DATA

3F 120 lbs L 1 P

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -8 vs par

Needs +30~<1% run that

Class77.3 -5.0 vs race +1.3 gap

MC2.1% fair 50-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.57

Faced84.4 +2.9 vs today

Pace EP79.5 best 82.2

Pace LP86.5 best 104.3

Energy0.56

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockJose Camposκ 0.09was Emmanuel Esquivel · -0.1

TrnKaterina Vassilievaκ 0.23was Jesus Esquivel · -0.3

Angles

Katerina Vassilieva: first-time Lasix 23% +99% Katerina Vassilieva: first-time turf 23% +54% Katerina Vassilieva: off layoff (60d+) 18% +22% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time Lasix 12% -25% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	56.8
2026	0	—	—
2025	2	0%	56.8
WO	0	—	—
Turf	0	—	—
Sprint	2	0%	56.8
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 WO 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 59 07-15 WO 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 65 07-05 WO 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 73 06-26 WO 4 Furlongs :46.80 B 74 06-18 WO 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 58 ★06-07 WO 3 Furlongs :35.60 B 51

SIREComplexity 84 87%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-11-02 46d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	6	6	33.8		82	nan	88	57	38	79	11.38	Emmanuel Esquivel
2025-09-17	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	11	11	45.5		76	80	104	57	38	87	79.83	Adam Beschizza