TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T
R1 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
SAR 2026-08-01 One And One Sixteenth Miles INNER TURF
88
strength
+5.4 salty
92
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 23.7s / par 23.7
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 76.7–90.6
Purse $115,000. One And One Sixteenth Miles. (Inner turf) (up To $20,010 Nysbfoa) For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 123 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $55,000 Or Less In The Last 5 Starts Preferred).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Pavlova's Palace 2% 50-1 / 6/1 8.2% 1st/1w 88 +5.4 884-4 — 832 893 spr→rte 19% 2∠
2 Bashfully 0% 99-1 / 9/2 9.3% 3rd/1w — 893-3 — — — 17% 3∠
3 Correlation Trade 0% 99-1 / 2/1 16.9% 2nd/1w — 911-1 — — — 26% 3∠
4 Bittersweet Memory 0% 99-1 / 8/1 5.7% 4th/1w — 865-6 — — — — 2∠
5 Voyager 97% — / 8/5 58.2% C 5th/2w 94 +11.2 902-2 — 931 922 D→Tspr→rte▼cls 17% ✓+3.4★PRIME5∠
6 So Angelina 0% 99-1 / 30/1 1.7% C 6th/3w 81 -1.2 776-15 721 723 931 J-1.8 12% ⚠-2.01∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 23.7s par 23.7 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 89/90 Pavlova's Palace 3 Correlation Trade 2 Bashfully 4 Bittersweet Memory 5 » 94/90 Voyager 6 C★ »» 95/100 So Angelina
5 Voyager ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs C
96.8%
MODEL %
—
MODEL FAIR
+58.3
EDGE vs ML
8/5
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 -2 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 92 vs par 92
Class93.5 +11.2 vs race -3.9 gap
MC25.8% fair 3-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.34
Faced90.0 +2.3 vs today
Pace EP83.0 best 93.8
Pace LP72.9 best 90.0
Energy0.51
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28was Jose Ortiz · +0.3
TrnMark Casseκ 0.47
J×T118 · 17% win · 49% ITM
Angles
Irad Ortiz, Jr. / Mark Casse 20% -20% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Mark Casse: first-time turf 14% -23% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20200%93.2
2026 20200%93.2
2025 0000——
SAR 10100%93.2
Turf 0000——
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.85 B 61 06-25 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.37 B 60 ★05-31 CD 5 Furlongs :59.20 B 95 ◆Greenwell ★05-24 CD 3 Furlongs :35.60 B G 56 04-30 CD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B G 68 04-23 CD 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 69 ◆Pierette·86
SIREJustify 88 96%ile turf 18%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-03 23d SAR 6.0f dirt Fast Stk 92 2 6 5.2 F 94 85 90 93 99 92 3.04 Jose Ortiz
2026-06-10 CD 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 2 6 1.8 81 73 34 92 85 88 0.81 Irad Ortiz, Jr.
1 Pavlova's Palace THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs
2.4%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-11.9
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -4 vs par
Needs +9~5% run that
Class87.7 +5.4 vs race 0.0 gap
MC20.3% fair 4-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.37
Faced87.9 +0.2 vs today
Pace EP82.2 best 88.7
Pace LP82.5 best 90.0
Energy0.50
Connections
JockJunior Alvaradoκ 0.2
TrnWilliam Mottκ 0.53
J×T593 · 19% win · 48% ITM
Angles
Junior Alvarado / William Mott 18% -16% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%83.4
2026 10000%83.4
2025 0000——
SAR 10000%83.4
Turf 10000%83.4
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-28 BEL 4 Furlongs 51.23 B 40 07-20 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.24 B 51 06-27 BEL 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 36 06-12 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.01 B G 68 06-06 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.25 B 45 ★05-30 BEL 4 Furlongs 47.40 B 77
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-03 SAR 5.5f turf Firm MSW 88 5 7 7.2 F 89 93 90 83 77 88 4.9 Junior Alvarado
3 Correlation Trade
2F 123 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-33.1
EDGE vs ML
2/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig91 -1 vs par
MC23.7% fair 3-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29
TrnChad Brownκ 0.77
J×T547 · 26% win · 63% ITM
Angles
Flavien Prat / Chad Brown 26% -16% Chad Brown: debut 20% -22% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 0000——
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.05 B 57 07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.50 B 35 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.23 B G 55 07-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.25 B 36 06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 50 06-21 SAR 3 Furlongs :38.20 B 34
No prior races in database
2 Bashfully
2F 123 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-18.0
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -3 vs par
MC18.6% fair 9-2
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJose Ortizκ 0.25
TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64
J×T24 · 17% win · 42% ITM
Angles
Jose Ortiz / Todd Pletcher 21% -15% Todd Pletcher: debut 19% -24% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 0000——
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.33 B 51 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.89 B 63 07-11 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 60 07-04 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.56 B 45 06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :52.70 B 16 06-21 SAR 3 Furlongs :38.50 B 38
SIRELife Is Good 99 99%ile 1st-out 54% (11)
No prior races in database
4 Bittersweet Memory
2F 123 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.9
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -6 vs par
MC10.5% fair 9-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockDylan Davisκ 0.22
TrnKelsey Dannerκ 0.37
Angles
Debut 11% -25% Kelsey Danner: debut 11% +58%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 0000——
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 51.00 B 36 07-19 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.50 B 33 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 42 07-05 SAR 3 Furlongs :38.15 B 41 06-29 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 60 06-22 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.49 B G 61
SIREThe Factor 83 74%ile 1st-out 14% (399) turf 14%
No prior races in database
6 So Angelina THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs C
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-3.0
EDGE vs ML
30/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig77 -15 vs par
Needs +16~<1% run that
Class81.1 -1.2 vs race -4.4 gap
MC1.2% fair 99-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced87.9 +0.2 vs today
Pace EP84.3 best 94.9
Pace LP87.9 best 99.8
Energy0.51
Connections
JockChristopher Elliottκ 0.09was Joel Rosario · -1.8
TrnAntonio Arriagaκ 0.19
J×T26 · 12% win · 38% ITM
Angles
Christopher Elliott / Antonio Arriaga 12% +144%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20000%81.3
2026 20000%81.3
2025 0000——
SAR 20000%81.3
Turf 10000%71.6
Route 10000%71.6
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 BEL 3 Furlongs 39.95 B 22 05-23 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 61 05-17 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.49 B 61 05-09 BEL 4 Furlongs 51.33 B 32 05-05 BEL 3 Furlongs 36.25 B 48
SIREEnticed 84 82%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-10 36d SAR 8.0f turf Firm MSW 88 5 5 14.2 86 89 100 72 66 80 22.7 Joel Rosario
2026-06-04 SAR 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 7 8 20.8 F 95 93 100 81 78 88 79.78 Dalila Rivera