TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T
R6 Saratoga Special S. (Grade II)
SAR 2026-08-01 Six And One Half Furlongs DIRT
92
strength
-1.0 fair
94
win par
fig to beat
LONE SPEED
shape
front favored
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 82.4–93.2
Purse $250,000. Six And One Half Furlongs. For Two Year Olds. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $250 each which should accompany the nomination; $1,250 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,250 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $1,250 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. 122 Lbs. Maidens allowed 2 Lbs. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, July 18, 2026 with 12 Nominations.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 How's Al Today 4% 25-1 / 6/1 8.2% 5th/1w 93 +0.2 894-5 904 904 883 ▲cls 20% 2∠
2 Rasasi 0% 99-1 / 15/1 3.1% P 6th/1w 88 -5.0 826-12 865 786 883 7% 1∠
3 Twinkle Town 30% 5-2 / 7/2 22.3% 3rd/1w 93 +0.2 931-1 942 941 892 J+1.1▲cls 35% ✓+5.63∠
4 Booked ✓ 37% 9-5 / 7/5 34.5% P 1st/1w 94 +1.4 903-4 951 913 835 12% ★PRIME1∠
5 Uncle Kef 0% 99-1 / 12/1 3.8% P 2nd/2w 85 -7.9 865-8 — 845 981 J+2.0S→D▲cls 29% ✓+1.61∠
6 Flight Command 28% 5-2 / 9/5 28.1% 4th/3w 91 -2.2 922-2 933 932 816 J+0.8▲cls 13% ✓+1.63∠
Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 LS★ HOLDS LP ⚡ 97/103 Booked 5 LP » 93/104 Uncle Kef 3 79/99 Twinkle Town 6 »» 73/90 Flight Command 1 78/98 How's Al Today 2 95/91 Rasasi
On the lead: 4 · race sets up for front
4 Booked ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2C 122 lbs P
37.2%
MODEL %
9-5
MODEL FAIR
-4.5
EDGE vs ML
7/5
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 -4 vs par
Needs +3~25% run that
Class94.5 +1.4 vs race -4.8 gap
MC17.0% fair 5-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.37
Faced89.1 -3.0 vs today
Pace EP80.2 best 97.1
Pace LP85.3 best 102.6
Energy0.52
Connections
JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17
TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33
J×T48 · 12% win · 42% ITM
Angles
Ricardo Santana, Jr. / Steven Asmussen 19% -29%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 321067%95.4
2026 321067%95.4
2025 0000——
SAR 2200100%95.4
Dirt 321067%95.4
Sprint 321067%95.4
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.05 B 49 07-19 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.40 B 51 ◆Freedom Charge·87 06-27 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.70 B 51 06-20 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.30 B 45 06-02 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.38 B G 64 05-24 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.66 B 75
SIREYaupon 88 97%ile turf 12%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 27d SAR 6.0f dirt Fast G3 91 1 6 0.0 F 64 90 103 91 92 92 1.37 Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2026-06-07 40d SAR 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 1 9 0.0 F 97 84 84 95 97 90 1.6 Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2026-04-28 CD 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 2 6 5.2 F 80 93 85 87 80 88 1.0 Jose Ortiz
3 Twinkle Town THIN DATA
2C 122 lbs
29.8%
MODEL %
5-2
MODEL FAIR
+7.6
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig93 -1 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 94 vs par 94
Class93.3 +0.2 vs race -0.1 gap
MC32.7% fair 2-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.45
Faced88.3 -3.8 vs today
Pace EP79.7 best 78.9
Pace LP84.7 best 98.6
Energy0.52
Connections
JockJose Ortizκ 0.25was Florent Geroux · +1.1
TrnKenneth McPeekκ 0.62
J×T34 · 35% win · 65% ITM
Angles
Jose Ortiz / Kenneth McPeek 23% +12% 2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1100100%94.2
2026 1100100%94.2
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 1100100%94.2
Sprint 1100100%94.2
Wet 1100100%94.2
WORKS 07-24 CD 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 73 ★07-18 CD 4 Furlongs :46.40 B 83 07-12 CD Four Furlongs 51.60 b 17 06-20 CD 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 72 06-20 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 47.4 nan 06-12 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 65
SIRETake Charge Indy 83 81%ile turf 11%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 CD 6.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) MSW 88 1 7 0.0 F 79 93 99 94 93 88 3.3 Florent Geroux
6 Flight Command THIN DATA
2C 122 lbs
28.4%
MODEL %
5-2
MODEL FAIR
-7.3
EDGE vs ML
9/5
M/L
Form
Proj Fig92 -2 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class90.9 -2.2 vs race +0.6 gap
MC23.3% fair 7-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.43
Faced85.9 -6.2 vs today
Pace EP78.2 best 72.7
Pace LP82.5 best 90.1
Energy0.51
Connections
JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29was Manuel Franco · +0.8
TrnRudy Rodriguezκ 0.31
J×T83 · 13% win · 43% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Flavien Prat / Rudy Rodriguez 12% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1100100%93.4
2026 1100100%93.4
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 1100100%93.4
Sprint 1100100%93.4
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.12 B 80 07-17 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.50 B 66 07-08 BEL 3 Furlongs :38.85 B 29 06-21 BEL 3 Furlongs :38.25 B G 36 ◆Zack The Grey 06-14 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 70 06-08 BEL 3 Furlongs :39.55 B 32 ◆Randi'S Girl
SIREFlightline 108 100%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-25 BAQ 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 1 7 0.0 73 nan 90 93 94 86 1.28 Manuel Franco
1 How's Al Today THIN DATA
2C 122 lbs
3.7%
MODEL %
25-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.6
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -5 vs par
Needs +4~19% run that
Class93.3 +0.2 vs race -4.2 gap
MC15.7% fair 5-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.38
Faced88.3 -3.8 vs today
Pace EP79.5 best 77.8
Pace LP84.5 best 98.0
Energy0.50
Connections
JockLuis Saezκ 0.18
TrnRiley Mottκ 0.42
J×T5 · 20% win · 40% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1100100%90.2
2026 1100100%90.2
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 1100100%90.2
Sprint 1100100%90.2
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.44 B 64 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.23 B 43 07-09 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.77 B 52 07-02 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.02 B 70 06-19 CD 3 Furlongs :35.40 B 54 05-31 CD 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 45
SIREMunnings 84 87%ile turf 14%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-04 CD 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 1 11 0.0 F 78 80 98 90 90 88 8.88 Luis Saez
5 Uncle Kef THIN DATA
2C 122 lbs P
0.5%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.2
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -8 vs par
Needs +10~3% run that
Class85.2 -7.9 vs race +1.0 gap
MC7.5% fair 12-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced82.7 -9.4 vs today
Pace EP84.6 best 92.6
Pace LP87.3 best 103.6
Energy0.50
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28was Carlos Barbosa · +2.0
TrnKevin Riceκ 0.21
J×T7 · 29% win · 43% ITM
Angles
Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 210050%84.8
2026 210050%84.8
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 210050%84.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-23 PID 5 Furlongs :59.80 B G 72 07-03 PID 4 Furlongs :46.00 B 81 ◆Maximum Faith·88 06-25 PID 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 57 06-18 PID 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 63 05-25 PID 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 48 ◆Kingdom Chaser 05-18 PID 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 53
SIREUncle Chuck 86 92%ile turf 14%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-12 34d WO 5.5f synthetic Fast Stk 85 5 7 7.0 93 90 104 84 78 85 8.65 Carlos Barbosa
2026-06-08 PID 4.5f synthetic Fast MSW 80 1 7 0.0 S 90 88 93 85 79 80 13.1 Carlos Barbosa
2 Rasasi THIN DATA
2C 122 lbs P
0.4%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.8
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 -12 vs par
Needs +12~2% run that
Class88.1 -5.0 vs race -5.7 gap
MC3.8% fair 25-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.45
Faced88.5 -3.6 vs today
Pace EP84.2 best 95.3
Pace LP83.7 best 91.1
Energy0.52
Connections
JockEdgard Zayasκ 0.19was Tyler Gaffalione · +0.0
TrnAntonio Sanoκ 0.13
J×T148 · 7% win · 47% ITM
Angles
Edgard Zayas / Antonio Sano 14% -44%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 210050%85.9
2026 210050%85.9
2025 0000——
SAR 10000%78.2
Dirt 210050%85.9
Sprint 210050%85.9
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 52 07-18 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.70 B 58 ★06-27 GP 5 Furlongs :59.30 B 92 06-20 GP 5 Furlongs 1:03.23 B 50 05-30 GP 5 Furlongs 1:01.18 B 70 05-23 GP 5 Furlongs 1:01.25 B 72
SIREHonor Code 84 82%ile turf 15%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 28d SAR 6.0f dirt Fast G3 91 4 6 17.8 F 86 82 91 78 70 91 6.02 Tyler Gaffalione
2026-06-06 GP 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 1 8 0.0 F 95 nan 87 86 89 86 2.7 Jesus Rios