TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T
R4 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
SAR 2026-08-01 Six Furlongs DIRT
86
strength
+3.3 salty
90
win par
fig to beat
LONE SPEED
shape
front favored
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
BALANCED
field
figs 86.1–92.4
Purse $115,000. Six Furlongs. (up To $20,010 Nysbfoa) For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 123 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $55,000 Or Less In The Last 5 Starts Preferred).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Subjugation 90% 1-9 / 9/2 47.7% 2nd/1w 90 +8.1 921+2 921 921 752 J+1.1▼cls▲slo-close 29% ✓+4.5★PRIME2∠
2 Jackpot Rocket 1% 99-1 / 10/1 6.2% 5th/1w — 875-3 — — — 19% 3∠
4 Chief of Staff 1% 99-1 / 6/1 9.5% EP 1st/2w 86 +3.3 866-4 — — — 19% 4∠
5 Apotheon 1% 99-1 / 15/1 4.3% 6th/2w — 884-2 — — — 16% 3∠
6 Cybersteel 1% 99-1 / 4/1 13.2% 4th/2w — 902+0 — — — 30% 3∠
7 Pinpoint 6% 15-1 / 8/1 9.5% 3rd/3w 81 -1.0 893-1 882 882 961 J-1.2▼cls 11% 2∠
8 Roll Wave 1% 99-1 / 6/1 9.5% 7th/3w — 866-4 — — — 10% 2∠
Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 LS★ ⚡ » Chief of Staff 1 61/90 Subjugation 7 C★ »» 91/101 Pinpoint 6 » Cybersteel 2 Jackpot Rocket 5 » Apotheon 8 »» Roll Wave
On the lead: 4 · race sets up for front
1 Subjugation ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2C 123 lbs
90.0%
MODEL %
1-9
MODEL FAIR
+71.8
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig92 +2 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 92 vs par 90
Class90.4 +8.1 vs race +2.0 gap
MC33.5% fair 2-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.43
Faced87.6 +2.0 vs today
Pace EP75.1 best 60.6
Pace LP82.5 best 89.8
Energy0.50
Connections
JockJose Ortizκ 0.25was Ramon Vazquez · +1.1
TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33
J×T279 · 29% win · 57% ITM
Angles
Jose Ortiz / Steven Asmussen 24% -22% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10100%91.6
2026 10100%91.6
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 10100%91.6
Sprint 10100%91.6
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-23 TP 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 42 07-15 TP 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 39 06-29 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 39 06-21 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B G 62 06-21 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 48.4 nan
SIREBee Jersey 83 81%ile turf 10%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 ELP 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 2 8 3.5 S 61 93 90 92 84 88 3.41 Ramon Vazquez
7 Pinpoint THIN DATA
2C 123 lbs
6.0%
MODEL %
15-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.1
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -1 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class81.3 -1.0 vs race +7.9 gap
MC15.7% fair 5-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.4
Faced87.9 +2.3 vs today
Pace EP82.7 best 90.7
Pace LP85.3 best 101.2
Energy0.50
Connections
JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17was Flavien Prat · -1.2
TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64
J×T37 · 11% win · 49% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Ricardo Santana, Jr. / Todd Pletcher 12% -27%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%88.1
2026 10000%88.1
2025 0000——
SAR 10000%88.1
Dirt 10000%88.1
Sprint 10000%88.1
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.24 B 40 07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 57 07-13 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.34 B 57 07-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.22 B 38 06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.85 B 54 06-21 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.65 B 32
SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile turf 19%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-07 SAR 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 5 9 15.2 F 91 82 101 88 77 88 8.54 Flavien Prat
6 Cybersteel
2C 123 lbs
0.9%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-19.1
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 0 vs par
MC14.1% fair 6-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28
TrnBrad Coxκ 0.69
J×T289 · 30% win · 62% ITM
Angles
Irad Ortiz, Jr. / Brad Cox 28% -18% Brad Cox: debut 20% -17% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-23 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.20 H G 67 07-14 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:02.60 B 46 07-04 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.20 H G 64 06-25 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 60 06-18 ELP 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 49 05-14 WSR 3 Furlongs :39.00 B 28
SIRECyberknife 96 99%ile 1st-out 14% (7)
No prior races in database
4 Chief of Staff
2C 123 lbs EP
0.8%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.5
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -4 vs par
Class85.6 +3.3 vs race +0.7 gap
MC10.3% fair 9-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
Connections
JockLuis Saezκ 0.18
TrnDanny Garganκ 0.45
J×T26 · 19% win · 35% ITM
Angles
Luis Saez / Danny Gargan 28% -1% Danny Gargan: off layoff (60d+) 21% -26% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.45 B 74 07-13 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 57 07-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.95 B 54 06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.45 B 59 06-20 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.90 B 51 06-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.65 B G 28
SIRENyquist 86 93%ile
No prior races in database
2 Jackpot Rocket
2C 123 lbs
0.8%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.3
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -3 vs par
MC10.1% fair 9-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJunior Alvaradoκ 0.2
TrnWilliam Mottκ 0.53
J×T593 · 19% win · 48% ITM
Angles
Junior Alvarado / William Mott 18% -16% William Mott: debut 12% -15% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.90 B 24 07-21 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.60 B 40 ★06-30 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.75 B 69 06-22 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.66 B 58 06-14 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 37 06-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.90 B G 56
SIRETapit 87 96%ile 1st-out 24% (398) turf 14%
No prior races in database
5 Apotheon
2C 123 lbs
0.8%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.5
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -2 vs par
MC9.6% fair 9-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJose Lezcanoκ 0.23
TrnWilliam Mottκ 0.53
J×T122 · 16% win · 44% ITM
Angles
Jose Lezcano / William Mott 18% -10% William Mott: debut 12% -15% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-27 SAR 3 Furlongs :37.55 B 46 07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.22 B 67 07-10 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.66 B G 34 07-02 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.34 B 39 06-19 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.60 B G 41 06-10 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.90 B G 32
SIREGun Runner 89 97%ile 1st-out 21% (337) turf 11%
No prior races in database
8 Roll Wave
2C 123 lbs
0.7%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.6
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -4 vs par
MC6.7% fair 15-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockKendrick Carmoucheκ 0.19
TrnThomas Proctorκ 0.42
J×T10 · 10% win · 30% ITM
Angles
Debut 11% -25% Thomas Proctor: debut 9% -46%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-23 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.12 B 82 ★07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.47 B 81 07-04 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 65 ★06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :46.59 B 81 06-22 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.77 B 76 06-16 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.34 B 74
SIREInto Mischief 87 96%ile 1st-out 24% (852) turf 15%
No prior races in database