TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T
R2 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
SAR 2026-08-01 Six Furlongs DIRT
89
strength
+6.8 salty
86
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
BALANCED
field
figs 81.1–88.6
Purse $115,000. Six Furlongs. For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New York State-Bred Registry. Weight, 123 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $55,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Blessednotbothered 25% 3-1 / 8/1 15.8% 3rd/1w 89 +7.0 847-2 812 812 843 ▲cls 67% ⚠-2.91∠
2 Annotate 39% 8-5 / 6/1 23.3% EP 1st/1w 85 +2.7 818-5 793 793 902 J-0.8 12% ⚠-3.5★PRIME1∠
3 Luck Penny 1% 99-1 / 8/1 6.4% 7th/1w — 863+0 — — — 26% 3∠
4 Velora 1% 99-1 / 7/2 12.4% 4th/1w — 863+0 — — — 21% 3∠
5 Cyber Baby 1% 99-1 / 9/2 10.2% 5th/1w — 891+3 — — — 29% 3∠
7 Harlow Drive 1% 99-1 / 8/1 6.4% 8th/3w — 863+0 — — — 9% 3∠
8 Doitforjack 1% 99-1 / 6/1 8.1% 6th/3w — 882+2 — — — 19% 3∠
9 Wildest Dreams 31% 2-1 / 10/1 17.4% 2nd/3w 89 +6.8 856-1 821 821 931 J-0.9▲cls 0% ⚠-1.3★VALUE2∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 LP 87/96 Annotate 9 LP »» 89/97 Wildest Dreams 1 85/84 Blessednotbothered 4 Velora 5 Cyber Baby 8 »» Doitforjack 3 Luck Penny 7 »» Harlow Drive
2 Annotate ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs EP
39.1%
MODEL %
8-5
MODEL FAIR
+24.8
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -5 vs par
Needs +9~5% run that
Class85.0 +2.7 vs race -3.9 gap
MC5.8% fair 15-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced86.9 -2.2 vs today
Pace EP82.7 best 87.4
Pace LP86.0 best 95.9
Energy0.53
Connections
JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17was Jose Ortiz · -0.8
TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33
J×T48 · 12% win · 42% ITM
Angles
Ricardo Santana, Jr. / Steven Asmussen 19% -29%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20000%79.0
2026 20000%79.0
2025 0000——
SAR 10000%79.0
Dirt 20000%79.0
Sprint 20000%79.0
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-27 SAR 3 Furlongs :37.50 B 43 07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 52.25 B 28 ◆Decimation·88 07-04 SAR 4 Furlongs :52.65 B 14 06-06 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 66
SIREHonest Mischief 85 90%ile turf 20%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 23d SAR 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 88 4 10 9.8 86 102 94 79 70 84 2.89 Jose Ortiz
2026-06-18 BAQ 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 6 10 9.2 F 87 83 96 76 56 86 1.96 Ricardo Santana, Jr.
9 Wildest Dreams ★ VALUE THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs
31.2%
MODEL %
2-1
MODEL FAIR
+22.1
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -1 vs par
Needs +4~19% run that
Class89.1 +6.8 vs race -3.9 gap
MC11.8% fair 7-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.39
Faced85.9 -3.2 vs today
Pace EP82.2 best 88.8
Pace LP84.2 best 96.6
Energy0.51
Connections
JockJunior Alvaradoκ 0.2was Flavien Prat · -0.9
TrnJeremiah Englehartκ 0.38
J×T5 · 0% win · 20% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Junior Alvarado / Jeremiah Englehart 7% -81%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%81.8
2026 10000%81.8
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 10000%81.8
Sprint 10000%81.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 51.66 B 20 07-18 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.50 B 65 07-09 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.65 B 54 06-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 58 06-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.15 B G 66 05-29 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.55 B 44
SIREDrain The Clock 97 99%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-18 BAQ 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 4 10 3.0 F 89 95 97 82 64 86 4.77 Flavien Prat
1 Blessednotbothered THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs
24.6%
MODEL %
3-1
MODEL FAIR
+13.5
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -2 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class89.3 +7.0 vs race -5.2 gap
MC11.2% fair 8-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.38
Faced85.9 -3.2 vs today
Pace EP81.1 best 84.5
Pace LP80.9 best 83.8
Energy0.51
Connections
JockKendrick Carmoucheκ 0.19was Jaime Rodriguez · +0.3
TrnM. Ferraroκ 0.02
J×T6 · 67% win · 83% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10010%80.9
2026 10010%80.9
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 10010%80.9
Sprint 10010%80.9
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 FL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 59 07-18 FL 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B G 68 07-09 FL 4 Furlongs :48.30 B 66 06-11 FL 4 Furlongs :49.30 B 53 ◆Enticing Prospect·86 ★06-03 FL 5 Furlongs 1:01.10 B 79 05-27 FL 4 Furlongs :48.30 B 66
SIREGreatest Honour 98 99%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-18 BAQ 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 3 10 2.8 F 84 83 84 81 65 86 9.29 Jaime Rodriguez
4 Velora
2F 123 lbs
1.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-21.1
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 0 vs par
MC12.4% fair 7-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJose Ortizκ 0.25
TrnLinda Riceκ 0.35
J×T72 · 21% win · 54% ITM
Angles
Jose Ortiz / Linda Rice 24% -14% Linda Rice: debut 13% -35% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.00 B 82 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.77 B 59 07-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :47.02 B 80 06-28 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.36 B 62 06-21 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.85 B 59 06-11 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.93 B 56
SIREYaupon 88 97%ile 1st-out 32% (69) turf 12%
No prior races in database
5 Cyber Baby
2F 123 lbs
1.0%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-17.2
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 +3 vs par
MC19.6% fair 4-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29
TrnMiguel Clementκ 0.57
J×T41 · 29% win · 54% ITM
Angles
Flavien Prat / Miguel Clement 29% +18% Miguel Clement: debut 22% -1% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.30 B 55 07-16 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.50 B 42 07-08 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.05 B G 70 06-29 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.00 B G 40 ★06-22 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.25 B 76 06-14 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.90 B 53
SIRECyberknife 96 99%ile 1st-out 14% (7)
No prior races in database
8 Doitforjack
2F 123 lbs
1.0%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.3
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 +2 vs par
MC15.8% fair 5-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockLuis Saezκ 0.18
TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61
J×T72 · 19% win · 44% ITM
Angles
Luis Saez / Brendan Walsh 17% -12% Brendan Walsh: debut 14% +3% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-23 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 55 ★07-16 CD 4 Furlongs :47.00 B G 77 07-09 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49.2 nan 07-09 CD Four Furlongs 49.20 b 55 06-30 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48 nan 06-24 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.8 nan
SIREJackie'S Warrior 97 99%ile 1st-out 0% (13)
No prior races in database
3 Luck Penny
2F 123 lbs
1.0%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.1
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 0 vs par
MC12.9% fair 7-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockEdgard Zayasκ 0.19
TrnGeorge Weaverκ 0.42
J×T23 · 26% win · 52% ITM
Angles
Edgard Zayas / George Weaver 27% +94% George Weaver: debut 16% +17% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-23 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.55 B 67 07-13 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.18 B 72 07-06 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.55 B G 66 06-28 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.82 B 46 06-21 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.70 B 51 06-13 BEL 3 Furlongs :35.40 B G 54
SIREMckinzie 87 95%ile 1st-out 21% (119) turf 11%
No prior races in database
7 Harlow Drive
2F 123 lbs
1.0%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.1
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 0 vs par
MC10.6% fair 8-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJaime Rodriguezκ 0.16
TrnJeremiah Englehartκ 0.38
J×T23 · 9% win · 35% ITM
Angles
Jeremiah Englehart: debut 20% -12% Jaime Rodriguez / Jeremiah Englehart 11% -35% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.66 B 46 07-18 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.00 B 71 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 43 07-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.95 B 55 05-29 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.00 B 54 05-16 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.31 B 44
SIREMaclean'S Music 84 87%ile 1st-out 20% (417) turf 16%
No prior races in database