SAR 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

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▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T

SAR 2026-08-01 One And One Eighth Miles DIRT

100

strength

+3.8 salty

100

win par

fig to beat

LONE SPEED

shape

front favored

HONEST

early pace

1st¼ 24.1s / par 24.1

TIGHT

field

figs 98.3–99.5

Purse $500,000. One And One Eighth Miles. For Three Year Olds. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $500 each which should accompany the nomination; $3,500 to pass the entry box and an additional $4,000 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $2,500 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. 124 Lbs. Non-winners of a Grade One or Two in 2025-26 allowed 2 Lbs.; of a Sweepstakes in 2026 allowed 4 Lbs. Atrophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, July 18, 2026 with 13 Original Nominations and 1 Supplement.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Chip Honcho	41% 7-5 / 3/1	28.1%	EP	1st/1w	99 +2.5	98³-2	101²	98³	85³	▲cls	29%	★PRIME1∠
2	Asked and Answered	1% 99-1 / 30/1	1.8%	S	5th/1w	85 -11.3	98³-2	100⁴	88⁵	—	J-0.9T→D▲cls	0%	⚠-1.42∠
3	Renegade	16% 5-1 / 7/5	25.6%	S	4th/1w	101 +4.4	99²-1	101²	97⁴	89²		18%	2∠
4	Silent Tactic	17% 9-2 / 6/1	13.6%	S	2nd/1w	100 +3.8	98³-2	100⁴	99¹	85³	L1▲cls	0%	✓+2.44∠
5	Commandment	25% 3-1 / 6/5	30.9%	S	3rd/1w	102 +5.4	100¹+0	102¹	99¹	90¹	J+0.5	35%	✓+1.62∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 24.1s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 LS★ LP 95/100 Chip Honcho 4 94/95 Silent Tactic 5 LP 93/99 Commandment 3 102/91 Renegade 2 LP 100/102 Asked and Answered

On the lead: 1 · race sets up for front

1 Chip Honcho ★ PRIME

3C 122 lbs EP

41.3%

MODEL %

7-5

MODEL FAIR

+16.3

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig98 -2 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class98.9 +2.5 vs race -0.4 gap

MC20.7% fair 4-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced93.2 -7.0 vs today

Pace EP84.2 best 95.0

Pace LP81.7 best 99.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJose Ortizκ 0.25

TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33

J×T279 · 29% win · 57% ITM

Angles

Jose Ortiz / Steven Asmussen 24% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	3	2	1	38%	101.4
2026	5	1	1	1	20%	101.4
2025	3	2	1	0	67%	100.1
SAR	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	8	3	2	1	38%	101.4
Route	7	3	1	1	43%	101.4
Wet	1	1	0	0	100%	100.1

WORKS 07-19 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 65 ◆Preside·100 07-12 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:03.25 B 48 06-13 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 62 06-06 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 66 05-31 SAR 4 Furlongs 52.60 B 24 05-10 CD 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 35

SIREConnect 83 77%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 35d	TDN	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	95	1	9	0.0	F	95	86	76	98	109	98	2.8	Jose Ortiz
2026-05-16 56d	LRL	9.5f	dirt	Fast	G1	94	3	14	4.5	F	93	82	82	98	93	97	11.1	Jose Ortiz
2026-03-21 35d	FG	9.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	93	5	9	11.5	F	64	97	100	95	101	97	2.1	Luis Saez
2026-02-14 28d	FG	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G2	94	2	8	0.5		90	93	86	101	114	95	7.4	Luis Saez
2026-01-17 28d	FG	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	91	4	10	1.8	F	92	90	70	97	100	94	8.9	Paco Lopez
2025-12-20 30d	FG	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	1	6	0.0	F	92	90	86	100	101	92	3.9	Paco Lopez
2025-11-20 35d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	88	1	11	0.0	F	95	85	83	100	97	92	1.7	Jose Ortiz
2025-10-16	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	2	8	2.8	F	101	88	95	100	103	88	8.92	Keith Asmussen

5 Commandment

3C 124 lbs S

24.6%

MODEL %

3-1

MODEL FAIR

-20.9

EDGE vs ML

6/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig100 0 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class101.8 +5.4 vs race -2.3 gap

MC22.8% fair 7-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced95.6 -4.6 vs today

Pace EP81.1 best 93.0

Pace LP87.6 best 99.3

Energy0.51

Connections

JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29was John Velazquez · +0.5

TrnBrad Coxκ 0.69

J×T202 · 35% win · 65% ITM

Angles

Flavien Prat / Brad Cox 33% +6% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	4	1	57%	101.9
2026	5	3	1	60%	101.9
2025	2	1	0	50%	99.0
SAR	1	0	1	0%	98.7
Dirt	7	4	1	57%	101.9
Route	5	3	1	60%	101.9
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 09-27 Churchill Downs 5f:~ 1:01 nan 09-20 Churchill Downs 5f:~ 1:01.4 nan 09-07 Churchill Downs 5f:~ 1:03.6 nan 07-25 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 71 ◆Chasten·105 ★07-18 CD 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 94 ◆Final Story·95 07-12 CD Four Furlongs 48.60 b 50

SIREInto Mischief 87 96%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-06 35d	SAR	10.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	100	2	9	1.2		85	nan	95	99	105	101	6.04	John Velazquez
2026-05-02 35d	CD	10.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	98	7	18	5.2	F	89	94	99	97	101	99	6.18	Luis Saez
2026-03-28 28d	GP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	94	1	6	0.0		93	88	82	102	112	97	1.9	Flavien Prat
2026-02-28 56d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	94	1	9	0.0	F	91	93	92	102	114	94	2.4	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-01-03 63d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	1	7	0.0	S	50	70	93	99	98	92	0.5	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-11-01 28d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	9	0.0	F	92	83	59	95	93	90	1.49	Jaime Torres
2025-10-04	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	4	12	5.2		90	102	111	99	102	88	2.63	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

4 Silent Tactic

3C 122 lbs S

17.4%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

+3.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig98 -2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 100 vs par 100

Class100.2 +3.8 vs race -1.9 gap

MC16.6% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced92.4 -7.8 vs today

Pace EP83.0 best 94.5

Pace LP75.8 best 94.8

Energy0.50

Connections

JockLuis Saezκ 0.18was Cristian Torres · +0.4

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T6 · 0% win · 17% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Mark Casse: off layoff (60d+) 15% -22% Luis Saez / Mark Casse 14% -26% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	2	4	33%	100.0
2026	4	1	3	25%	100.0
2025	2	1	1	50%	87.1
SAR	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	4	1	3	25%	100.0
Route	6	2	4	33%	100.0
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-19 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.46 B 63 ◆Pierette·92 07-12 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.50 B 81 ◆Measure·101 07-05 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.65 B 75 ◆Measure·101 06-27 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.37 B 57 06-20 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.97 B 51 ★06-06 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:02.66 B 42

SIRETacitus 86 93%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-03-28 27d	OP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	94	2	8	4.0	F	94	nan	76	99	111	99	3.6	Cristian Torres
2026-03-01 23d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	96	2	9	0.1	F	77	nan	95	100	108	97	3.6	Cristian Torres
2026-02-06 34d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	93	1	11	0.0	F	93	88	66	100	104	92	12.0	Cristian Torres
2026-01-03 62d·2.3×	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	94	2	8	4.5	S	86	86	54	97	95	89	14.1	Jaime Torres
2025-11-02 23d	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	G3	86	2	7	0.8		73	77	75	87	84	87	5.15	Fraser Aebly
2025-10-10	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	1	6	0.0		105	104	113	84	73	82	4.85	Sahin Civaci

3 Renegade

3C 124 lbs S

15.8%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

-25.9

EDGE vs ML

7/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig99 -1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class100.8 +4.4 vs race -2.1 gap

MC19.7% fair 4-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced94.6 -5.6 vs today

Pace EP88.1 best 101.6

Pace LP78.6 best 90.8

Energy0.51

Connections

JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28

TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64

J×T333 · 18% win · 54% ITM

Angles

Irad Ortiz, Jr. / Todd Pletcher 24% -23% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	2	3	2	29%	100.8
2026	4	2	1	1	50%	100.8
2025	3	0	2	1	0%	98.9
SAR	2	0	0	2	0%	97.1
Dirt	7	2	3	2	29%	100.8
Route	6	2	3	1	33%	100.8
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.50 B 49 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.80 B 40 ◆Tuscan Sky·102 07-10 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.11 B 73 ◆Be You·101 07-04 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.54 B 46 06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.50 B 44 05-29 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.60 B 76 ◆Powershift·100

SIREInto Mischief 87 96%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-06 35d	SAR	10.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	100	3	9	5.2		88	101	91	97	102	100	1.75	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-05-02 35d	CD	10.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	98	2	18	0.2	F	94	80	73	98	104	97	5.65	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-03-28 49d	OP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	94	1	8	0.0	F	89	nan	78	101	114	94	1.0	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-02-07 63d	TAM	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	1	9	0.0		93	87	nan	99	102	91	1.2	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-12-06 50d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G2	90	2	11	2.0	F	102	97	69	98	101	86	2.97	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-10-17 62d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	2	7	0.0	F	78	83	60	99	103	79	4.93	John Velazquez
2025-08-16	SAR	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	3	9	18.2	F	75	100	83	96	91	87	5.9	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

2 Asked and Answered

3G 120 lbs S

0.8%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.4

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig98 -2 vs par

Needs +6~11% run that

Class85.1 -11.3 vs race +13.4 gap

MC20.2% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.37

Faced88.2 -12.0 vs today

Pace EP85.6 best 99.5

Pace LP80.1 best 101.8

Energy0.51

Connections

JockJaime Rodriguezκ 0.16was Jose Ortiz · -0.9

TrnAntonio Arriagaκ 0.19

J×T18 · 0% win · 33% ITM

Angles

Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	2	0%	99.5
2026	6	2	0%	99.5
2025	0	0	—	—
SAR	3	0	0%	93.8
Dirt	3	2	0%	99.5
Route	5	1	0%	99.5
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 05-23 BEL 5 Furlongs 1:05.94 B 18 05-02 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.84 B 58 04-18 BEL 3 Furlongs 37.77 B 36 04-12 BEL 5 Furlongs 1:00.70 B 77 04-04 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 63 03-28 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.42 B 59

SIRETapit 87 96%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-16 6d	SAR	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	87	7	9	6.0		—	—	—	88	91	85	5.0	Jose Ortiz
2026-07-10 21d	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	4	5	13.2		85	75	74	94	92	85	2.7	Jaime Rodriguez
2026-06-19 15d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	2	8	0.5	F	77	76	102	100	106	84	20.11	Jaime Rodriguez
2026-06-04 25d	SAR	8.5f	turf	Firm	G3	93	8	9	6.5	S	100	89	89	89	90	81	122.79	Ruben Silvera
2026-05-10 17d	BAQ	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	89	5	7	7.8		86	95	100	86	87	80	45.0	Dalila Rivera
2026-04-23	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	2	6	4.8	S	96	77	36	93	84	79	14.09	Luis Rivera, Jr.