TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T
R5 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
SAR 2026-08-01 Six Furlongs DIRT
90
strength
+7.7 salty
89
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
BALANCED
field
figs 83.9–90.6
Purse $115,000. Six Furlongs. (up To $20,010 Nysbfoa) For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 123 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $55,000 Or Less In The Last 5 Starts Preferred).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Charlotte's Beach 72% 2-5 / 8/1 33.9% 2nd/1w 90 +8.2 902+1 — 871 881 J-0.6T→D▲cls 0% ⚠-1.3★PRIME3∠
2 Judy's Rockette 1% 99-1 / 6/1 7.2% 5th/1w — 877-2 — — — 19% 3∠
3 Amelia in Air 1% 99-1 / 10/1 4.8% 7th/1w — 877-2 — — — — 2∠
4 Fair Practice 2% 50-1 / 8/1 5.8% 3rd/1w — 911+2 — — — 26% 3∠
5 Maybe It's Destiny 1% 50-1 / 15/1 3.4% 8th/1w — 8410-5 — — — — 2∠
6 Wyna 1% 99-1 / 4/1 9.9% 4th/1w — 902+1 — — — 30% 3∠
7 Virabhadrasana 1% 99-1 / 6/1 7.1% 10th/2w — 859-4 — — — — 1∠
8 Life Changing 1% 99-1 / 5/1 8.3% 6th/2w — 885-1 — — — 12% 3∠
9 Flightress 1% 99-1 / 8/1 5.7% 9th/3w — 885-1 — — — 0% 2∠
10 First Site 18% 9-2 / 6/1 13.9% P 1st/3w 89 +7.1 902+1 891 862 852 ▲cls 50%
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 10 LP »» 88/111 First Site 1 LP 67/109 Charlotte's Beach 4 Fair Practice 6 Wyna 2 Judy's Rockette 8 » Life Changing 3 Amelia in Air 5 Maybe It's Destiny 9 »» Flightress 7 » Virabhadrasana
1 Charlotte's Beach ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs
71.7%
MODEL %
2-5
MODEL FAIR
+60.6
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 +1 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class90.5 +8.2 vs race 0.0 gap
MC18.7% fair 9-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.34
Faced87.9 -2.1 vs today
Pace EP76.7 best 66.8
Pace LP87.2 best 108.8
Energy0.51
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockKendrick Carmoucheκ 0.19was Jose Ortiz · -0.6
TrnMark Casseκ 0.47
J×T7 · 0% win · 0% ITM
Angles
Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% 2nd career start 13% -28% Kendrick Carmouche / Mark Casse 5% -53%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%86.9
2026 10000%86.9
2025 0000——
SAR 10000%86.9
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 10000%86.9
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-22 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.03 B 65 06-19 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.04 B 73 ◆Harpoon·99 06-11 SAR 3 Furlongs :38.43 B G 32 ◆Tinian 06-03 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.16 B 62 ◆Harpoon·99
SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-03 SAR 5.5f turf Firm MSW 88 4 7 3.8 F 67 94 109 87 82 88 2.28 Jose Ortiz
10 First Site THIN DATA
2F 123 lbs P
18.1%
MODEL %
9-2
MODEL FAIR
+3.8
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 +1 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class89.4 +7.1 vs race +0.8 gap
MC14.6% fair 6-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced85.9 -4.1 vs today
Pace EP79.0 best 88.3
Pace LP86.6 best 111.1
Energy0.52
Connections
JockJose Ortizκ 0.25was Javier Castellano · +0.0
TrnAnthony Dutrowκ 0.45
J×T6 · 50% win · 100% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20110%88.7
2026 20110%88.7
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 20110%88.7
Sprint 20110%88.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.45 B 57 07-18 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.95 B 55 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 49 ★06-15 BEL 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 78 06-07 BEL 4 Furlongs :47.63 B 74 05-30 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.42 B 42
SIREEarly Voting 102 100%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-21 37d BAQ 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 2 7 0.8 F 88 nan 82 86 81 89 0.8 Javier Castellano
2026-05-15 BAQ 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 86 3 6 3.5 67 95 111 89 78 86 3.46 Javier Castellano
4 Fair Practice
2F 123 lbs
1.5%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-9.6
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig91 +2 vs par
MC14.5% fair 6-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29
TrnChad Brownκ 0.77
J×T547 · 26% win · 63% ITM
Angles
Flavien Prat / Chad Brown 26% -16% Chad Brown: debut 20% -22% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.88 B 72 07-20 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 66 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.87 B G 58 07-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.48 B 61 06-26 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.75 B 58 06-19 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.45 B 54
SIRETacitus 86 93%ile 1st-out 11% (35) turf 9%
No prior races in database
6 Wyna
2F 123 lbs
1.3%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-18.7
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 +1 vs par
MC11.6% fair 8-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28
TrnBrad Coxκ 0.69
J×T289 · 30% win · 62% ITM
Angles
Irad Ortiz, Jr. / Brad Cox 28% -18% Brad Cox: debut 20% -17% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 54 07-07 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.4 nan 07-07 KEE Four Furlongs 48.40 b 60 06-30 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48 nan 06-14 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.4 nan
SIREComplexity 84 87%ile 1st-out 24% (80) turf 14%
No prior races in database
2 Judy's Rockette
2F 123 lbs
1.3%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.0
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -2 vs par
MC8.3% fair 12-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJunior Alvaradoκ 0.2
TrnWilliam Mottκ 0.53
J×T593 · 19% win · 48% ITM
Angles
Junior Alvarado / William Mott 18% -16% William Mott: debut 12% -15% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.45 B 49 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.15 B 59 ★07-09 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 73 06-08 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.65 B 60 05-30 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.55 B 73 05-23 SAR 3 Furlongs 37.74 B 45
SIREConstitution 86 93%ile 1st-out 20% (465) turf 16%
No prior races in database
8 Life Changing
2F 123 lbs
1.3%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.4
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -1 vs par
MC8.0% fair 12-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockLuis Saezκ 0.18
TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64
J×T67 · 12% win · 33% ITM
Angles
Luis Saez / Todd Pletcher 23% -17% Todd Pletcher: debut 19% -24% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.04 B 56 ★07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.00 B 82 07-13 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.59 B 52 06-28 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.21 B 66 06-20 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.81 B 46 06-07 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.64 B 64
SIRELife Is Good 99 99%ile 1st-out 54% (11)
No prior races in database
3 Amelia in Air
2F 123 lbs
1.3%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.8
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -2 vs par
MC7.9% fair 12-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockDylan Davisκ 0.22
TrnD. Whitworth Beckmanκ 0.53
Angles
D. Whitworth Beckman: debut 12% +19% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.99 B 70 07-19 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.30 B 47 07-13 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.93 B 61 07-06 SAR 4 Furlongs 51.35 B 36 06-29 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.30 B 63 06-22 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.25 B 48
SIREQuality Road 86 94%ile 1st-out 21% (440) turf 15%
No prior races in database
5 Maybe It's Destiny
2F 123 lbs
1.3%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.0
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -5 vs par
MC3.7% fair 25-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJaime Rodriguezκ 0.16
TrnJ. Sweezeyκ 0.22
Angles
Debut 11% -25% J. Sweezey: debut 6% -29%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 CD 5 Furlongs :59.60 B 87 07-18 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 64 07-12 CD Four Furlongs 47.40 b 65 07-05 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 65 06-29 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 42 06-21 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 35
SIREMandaloun 99 99%ile 1st-out 29% (7)
No prior races in database
9 Flightress
2F 123 lbs
1.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-9.9
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -1 vs par
MC8.6% fair 10-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockEdgard Zayasκ 0.19
TrnClaude McGaughey IIIκ 0.66
J×T5 · 0% win · 0% ITM
Angles
Claude McGaughey III: debut 13% -23% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.65 B 55 07-15 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 60 ★07-09 SAR 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 52 07-01 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.76 B G 64 06-24 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.51 B 51 06-16 BEL 4 Furlongs :51.22 B 38
SIREFlightline 108 100%ile 1st-out 25% (4)
No prior races in database
7 Virabhadrasana
2F 123 lbs
1.0%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.3
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -4 vs par
MC4.2% fair 25-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17
TrnKinnon LaRoseκ 0.34
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.65 B 33 ★07-16 SAR 5 Furlongs 59.85 B 90 04-26 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 57 04-18 KEE 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 43
SIREJackie'S Warrior 97 99%ile 1st-out 0% (13)
No prior races in database