TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T
R12 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
SAR 2026-08-01 One And One Sixteenth Miles INNER TURF
89
strength
+6.6 salty
92
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 23.7s / par 23.7
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 85.2–94.9
Purse $115,000. One And One Sixteenth Miles. (Inner turf) (up To $20,010 Nysbfoa) For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $55,000 Or Less In The Last 5 Starts Preferred).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Prime Connection 3% 30-1 / 15/1 4.3% S 3rd/1w 84 +1.7 895-3 883 884 862 L2▲cls 22% 3∠
2 Music Box 37% 9-5 / 8/1 20.1% S 9th/1w 88 +5.7 923+0 — 912 617 spr→rte▲cls 5% ★PRIME2∠
3 Amicable Farce 33% 2-1 / 5/1 21.1% P 1st/1w 89 +6.6 942+2 912 912 825 L2▲cls 25% ★VALUE3∠
4 Timeless Melody 1% 99-1 / 10/1 4.6% 4th/1w 89 +6.8 914-1 — 875 806 L1spr→rte▲cls 29% 5∠
5 Nonconsecutivetrms 23% 7-2 / 5/2 22.6% P 2nd/1w 91 +8.4 951+3 931 931 844 L2J+0.6 15% 5∠
6 Fancy n' Flight 1% 99-1 / 4/1 9.7% S 7th/1w 86 +3.5 895-3 854 856 951 L12S◈freshJ+1.4▲cls 0% 2∠
7 Hedge Book 1% 99-1 / 3/1 12.2% S 8th/2w 89 +7.0 887-4 795 797 862 ★goldJ+1.5 26% 1∠
8 Lose the Blues 0% 99-1 / 15/1 3.0% 5th/3w — 887-4 — — — 12% 3∠
9 Serenique 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.3% 6th/3w — 859-7 — — — 8% 2∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 23.7s par 23.7 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 HOLDS 102/82 Amicable Farce 5 LP 96/101 Nonconsecutivetrms 1 94/96 Prime Connection 4 71/89 Timeless Melody 8 »» Lose the Blues 9 »» Serenique 6 LP 93/99 Fancy n' Flight 7 » 111/82 Hedge Book 2 88/92 Music Box
2 Music Box ★ PRIME THIN DATA
3F 121 lbs L S
37.2%
MODEL %
9-5
MODEL FAIR
+26.1
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig92 0 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class88.0 +5.7 vs race +3.7 gap
MC16.7% fair 5-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.5
Faced83.2 -5.7 vs today
Pace EP82.0 best 88.1
Pace LP74.2 best 91.7
Energy0.51
Connections
JockJaime Rodriguezκ 0.16was Daniel Centeno · +0.0
TrnMichael Trombettaκ 0.3
J×T19 · 5% win · 47% ITM
Angles
Jaime Rodriguez / Michael Trombetta 13% -6% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20200%90.8
2026 20200%90.8
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 10100%90.8
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 51.90 B 29 ◆Resort·86 07-18 FAI Five Furlongs 1:02.00 b 69 ◆Abundant Love·91 07-11 FAI Four Furlongs 49.00 b 63
SIREMaclean'S Music 84 87%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-05 22d LRL 5.5f turf Firm MSW 83 2 10 0.2 F 82 73 39 91 88 88 9.2 Daniel Centeno
2026-05-14 LRL 5.5f dirt Good MSW 83 2 3 0.1 S 88 90 92 91 72 84 1.1 Daniel Centeno
3 Amicable Farce ★ VALUE THIN DATA
3F 121 lbs L P
33.2%
MODEL %
2-1
MODEL FAIR
+16.5
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig94 +2 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class88.9 +6.6 vs race +4.8 gap
MC21.1% fair 7-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.32
Faced86.8 -2.1 vs today
Pace EP84.8 best 102.0
Pace LP80.0 best 82.2
Energy0.50
Connections
JockDylan Davisκ 0.22
TrnChad Brownκ 0.77
J×T155 · 25% win · 57% ITM
Angles
Chad Brown: 2nd off layoff 26% -4% Dylan Davis / Chad Brown 24% +1% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20100%91.1
2026 10100%91.1
2025 10000%89.9
SAR 10000%89.9
Turf 20100%91.1
Route 20100%91.1
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 63 07-18 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 63 07-11 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 50 07-05 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 60 06-28 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.26 B 53 06-05 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.50 B 47
SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-14 296d BAQ 8.5f turf Firm MSW 86 2 6 0.5 S 82 86 82 91 90 88 3.29 Dylan Davis
2025-08-22 SAR 8.5f turf Firm MSW 87 5 8 6.5 F 102 81 78 90 84 87 3.7 Irad Ortiz, Jr.
5 Nonconsecutivetrms
3F 121 lbs L 1 P
23.0%
MODEL %
7-2
MODEL FAIR
-5.6
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig95 +3 vs par
Needs +3~22% run that
Class90.7 +8.4 vs race +4.2 gap
MC25.8% fair 3-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced87.6 -1.3 vs today
Pace EP83.3 best 95.9
Pace LP81.0 best 100.8
Energy0.49
Connections
JockJose Ortizκ 0.25was Tyler Gaffalione · +0.6
TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61
J×T33 · 15% win · 55% ITM
Angles
Brendan Walsh: 2nd off layoff 19% -9% Brendan Walsh: first-time Lasix 16% -9% Jose Ortiz / Brendan Walsh 14% -11% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% First-time Lasix 12% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 60410%92.8
2026 10100%92.8
2025 50310%88.9
SAR 10100%92.8
Turf 60410%92.8
Route 60410%92.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 10-21 Turfway Park 4f:~ 49.8 nan 10-15 Turfway Park 4f:~ 49 nan 09-03 Turfway Park 4f:~ 49.6 nan 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.90 B 48 07-19 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 62 06-26 Turfway Park 4f:~ 48.4 nan
SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 195d·4.1× SAR 8.5f turf Firm MSW 87 2 10 1.0 93 nan 76 93 94 90 6.2 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-12-21 56d GP 8.5f turf Firm MSW 86 2 12 0.5 93 85 87 88 81 90 2.0 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-10-26 36d CD 8.5f turf Firm MSW 88 7 12 5.0 96 95 89 86 84 90 1.09 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-09-20 48d CD 8.0f turf Firm MSW 88 2 11 4.5 78 94 101 89 87 91 1.88 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-08-03 29d ELP 8.5f turf Firm MSW 88 3 12 1.0 F 68 68 56 88 93 89 5.78 Danny Sheehy
2025-07-05 ELP 8.0f turf Firm MSW 88 2 10 5.0 82 82 68 85 79 88 6.58 Danny Sheehy
1 Prime Connection
3F 121 lbs L S
3.4%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-2.9
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -3 vs par
Needs +7~8% run that
Class84.0 +1.7 vs race +4.7 gap
MC8.8% fair 10-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.42
Faced86.1 -2.8 vs today
Pace EP82.5 best 94.0
Pace LP82.2 best 95.5
Energy0.51
Connections
JockJose Lezcanoκ 0.23
TrnLinda Riceκ 0.35
J×T649 · 22% win · 57% ITM
Angles
Jose Lezcano / Linda Rice 21% -17% Linda Rice: 2nd off layoff 20% -25% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 30000%87.7
2026 20000%87.7
2025 10000%82.7
SAR 10000%82.7
Turf 10000%87.7
Route 10000%87.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-20 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.90 B 67 07-08 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.55 B 66 07-04 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.68 B 53 06-19 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.42 B 65 06-10 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.95 B 52 05-21 BEL 5 Furlongs 1:02.55 B 61
SIREInto Mischief 87 96%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-25 63d BAQ 9.5f turf Firm MSW 85 5 6 3.2 94 nan 77 88 84 81 21.5 Jose Lezcano
2026-04-23 264d AQU 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 86 5 6 13.0 75 88 80 83 84 79 22.06 Jose Lezcano
2025-08-02 SAR 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 87 9 10 17.5 F 85 nan 96 83 69 87 28.75 Dylan Davis
7 Hedge Book
3F 121 lbs L S
1.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-23.8
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -4 vs par
Needs +6~11% run that
Class89.3 +7.0 vs race -1.1 gap
MC5.4% fair 20-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced86.9 -2.0 vs today
Pace EP91.3 best 110.7
Pace LP76.3 best 81.6
Energy0.50
Connections
JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29was Florent Geroux · +1.5
TrnChad Brownκ 0.77
J×T547 · 26% win · 63% ITM
Angles
Flavien Prat / Chad Brown 26% -16%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 40110%91.8
2026 40110%91.8
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 20010%87.3
Route 10000%78.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 63 07-17 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 49 07-04 CD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 73 06-05 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 42 05-29 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 48 05-22 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 65
SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-11 41d CD 8.0f turf Firm MSW 88 5 12 4.5 111 87 62 79 78 89 9.37 Florent Geroux
2026-05-01 35d CD 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 7 11 8.2 F 84 86 82 88 91 90 2.11 Flavien Prat
2026-03-27 61d TAM 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 85 2 6 2.0 F 101 nan 74 92 98 91 0.4 Samuel Marin
2026-01-25 GP 7.5f turf Good MSW 87 3 10 2.0 S 103 95 77 87 81 87 3.5 Flavien Prat
4 Timeless Melody THIN DATA
3F 121 lbs L
0.9%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.2
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig91 -1 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class89.1 +6.8 vs race +1.6 gap
MC11.5% fair 8-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.36
Faced85.9 -3.0 vs today
Pace EP77.8 best 71.3
Pace LP82.3 best 89.1
Energy0.49
Connections
JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17was Samy Camacho · +0.2
TrnPhilip Antonacciκ 0.44
J×T28 · 29% win · 46% ITM
Angles
Ricardo Santana, Jr. / Philip Antonacci 24% +42% Philip Antonacci: off layoff (60d+) 22% -6% 2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%87.1
2026 10000%87.1
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 10000%87.1
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 53.85 B 16 06-22 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.88 B 50 05-01 PMM 4 Furlongs :52.25 B 36 ◆Pot'S Right·90 04-25 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 45 04-19 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.40 B G 54 ◆No Tide 04-13 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.30 B 44 ◆No Tide
SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-09 GP 7.5f turf Firm MSW 86 4 10 3.0 S 71 90 89 87 85 86 11.0 Samy Camacho
6 Fancy n' Flight THIN DATA
3F 121 lbs S
0.8%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-19.2
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -3 vs par
Needs +7~8% run that
Class85.8 +3.5 vs race +3.0 gap
MC3.3% fair 30-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.33
Faced86.6 -2.3 vs today
Pace EP84.7 best 93.1
Pace LP83.3 best 98.9
Energy0.50
Connections
JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28was Ruben Silvera · +1.4
TrnJoseph Leeκ 0.24
J×T3 · 0% win · 67% ITM
Angles
Joseph Lee: off layoff (60d+) 14% +1% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20100%85.1
2026 0000——
2025 20100%85.1
SAR 10000%85.0
Turf 10100%85.1
Route 10100%85.1
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.22 B 70 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.88 B 62
SIREMaxfield 88 96%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-10-05 35d BAQ 8.5f turf Firm MSW 86 2 11 2.8 90 96 99 85 80 81 86.15 Ruben Silvera
2025-08-31 SAR 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 87 10 12 14.2 S 93 nan 77 85 74 87 19.0 Dylan Davis
8 Lose the Blues
3F 121 lbs L 1
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.0
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -4 vs par
MC5.1% fair 20-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockLuis Saezκ 0.18
TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64
J×T67 · 12% win · 33% ITM
Angles
Luis Saez / Todd Pletcher 23% -17% Todd Pletcher: debut 19% -24% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 0000——
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.98 B 51 07-17 BEL 4 Furlongs 51.23 B 39 07-10 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.24 B 52 06-28 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.62 B 49 06-22 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.22 B 44 06-11 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.02 B 57
SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile 1st-out 24% (340) turf 19%
No prior races in database
9 Serenique
3F 121 lbs L 1
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -7 vs par
MC2.4% fair 50-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockEdgard Zayasκ 0.19
TrnH. James Bondκ 0.33
J×T12 · 8% win · 58% ITM
Angles
Debut 11% -25% H. James Bond: debut 8% +26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
SAR 0000——
Turf 0000——
Route 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.81 B 71 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 51.00 B 41 07-08 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.55 B 49 07-01 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.75 B 60 06-13 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.45 B 47 ★05-29 SAR 5 Furlongs 59.19 B 91
SIREMaximus Mischief 84 84%ile 1st-out 17% (180) turf 12%
No prior races in database