SAR 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T

Purse $120,000. One And One Eighth Miles. (up To $20,880 Nysbfoa) For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won $22,000 Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 5 Starts Preferred).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Sassmaster	67% 1-2 / 3/1	41.5%	P	3rd/1w	90 -0.1	100¹+3	99²	99¹	86²	L2T+2.7▲cls	26%	✓+5.9★PRIME3∠
2	Hop Sing	2% 50-1 / 6/1	9.3%	EP	1st/1w	91 +0.1	93⁷-4	100¹	92⁷	87¹	L1T-0.5	27%	4∠
3	Thunderously	14% 6-1 / 6/1	14.2%		5th/1w	92 +1.3	94⁶-3	96⁷	96³	74⁴	L12S◈fresh▲cls	19%	5∠
4	Universe ✓	8% 10-1 / 8/1	9.9%	P	6th/1w	96 +5.9	97²+0	98³	96³	74⁴	L1J+1.3	35%	6∠
5	Statesman	2% 50-1 / 10/1	5.9%	S	7th/2w	91 +0.5	95⁴-2	97⁵	95⁵	63⁶	L1J-0.5▲cls	0%	3∠
6	Expect the Best	2% 50-1 / 15/1	4.4%	P	4th/2w	95 +4.4	95⁴-2	97⁵	94⁶	84³	J+0.7	15%	✓+1.62∠
8	Iron Dome ✓	5% 20-1 / 7/2	14.9%	P	2nd/3w	94 +3.5	97²+0	98³	98²	—	L2	17%	3∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.7s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 HOLDS ⚡ 96/98 Hop Sing 8 LP ⚡ »» 102/101 Iron Dome 1 LP 94/103 Sassmaster 6 » 99/97 Expect the Best 3 77/72 Thunderously 4 LP 88/103 Universe 5 » 97/95 Statesman

On the lead: 2, 8 · race sets up for closers

1 Sassmaster ★ PRIME

3C 121 lbs L P

66.9%

MODEL %

1-2

MODEL FAIR

+41.9

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig100 +3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 99 vs par 97

Class90.5 -0.1 vs race +9.8 gap

MC30.9% fair 2-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced87.4 -4.5 vs today

Pace EP82.8 best 94.2

Pace LP86.8 best 102.7

Energy0.52

Connections

JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29

TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64was Anthony Sciametta, Jr. · +2.7

J×T62 · 26% win · 56% ITM

Angles

Todd Pletcher: 2nd off layoff 22% -24% Flavien Prat / Todd Pletcher 22% -6% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	50%	99.3
2026	1	1	100%	99.3
2025	1	0	0%	98.7
SAR	1	0	0%	98.7
Dirt	2	1	50%	99.3
Route	1	1	100%	99.3
Wet	1	1	100%	99.3

WORKS 07-25 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.98 B 50 07-17 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.00 B 53 06-19 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.86 B 47 06-12 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.83 B 58 06-04 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.50 B 44 05-29 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.50 B 61

SIRECurlin 87 96%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 322d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	1	10	0.0	F	80	85	91	99	108	87	9.41	Flavien Prat
2025-08-09	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	4	8	7.2		94	92	103	99	90	87	3.0	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

3 Thunderously THIN DATA

3C 121 lbs L

14.4%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

+0.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 -3 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class91.9 +1.3 vs race +1.9 gap

MC7.0% fair 12-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.42

Faced86.9 -5.0 vs today

Pace EP79.3 best 77.1

Pace LP77.9 best 71.6

Energy0.50

Connections

JockJunior Alvaradoκ 0.2

TrnWilliam Mottκ 0.53

J×T593 · 19% win · 48% ITM

Angles

William Mott: off layoff (60d+) 18% -23% Junior Alvarado / William Mott 18% -16% 2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	100%	96.2
2026	1	1	100%	96.2
2025	0	0	—	—
SAR	0	0	—	—
Dirt	1	1	100%	96.2
Route	1	1	100%	96.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.30 B 57 07-16 SAR 3 Furlongs 37.45 B 42 07-09 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.70 B 64 ◆Stars And Strides·92 06-30 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.65 B 56 06-22 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 39 06-15 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 62

SIREGun Runner 89 97%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-01-10	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	1	9	0.0	F	77	nan	72	96	94	87	3.8	Junior Alvarado

4 Universe

3G 121 lbs L 1 P

8.5%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.6

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig97 0 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class96.5 +5.9 vs race +0.4 gap

MC9.6% fair 9-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced92.4 +0.5 vs today

Pace EP81.1 best 88.2

Pace LP81.7 best 103.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockJose Ortizκ 0.25was Brian Hernandez, Jr. · +1.3

TrnKenneth McPeekκ 0.62

J×T34 · 35% win · 65% ITM

Angles

Jose Ortiz / Kenneth McPeek 23% +12% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Kenneth McPeek: off layoff (60d+) 13% -8% Kenneth McPeek: first-time Lasix 13% -14% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time Lasix 12% -25%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	1	2	1	14%	98.7
2026	3	0	0	0	0%	97.7
2025	4	1	2	1	25%	98.7
SAR	1	1	0	0	100%	94.6
Dirt	7	1	2	1	14%	98.7
Route	6	0	2	1	0%	98.7
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-25 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.20 B 80 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.75 B 65 ★07-10 SAR 3 Furlongs :34.95 B 63 ★06-27 SAR 3 Furlongs :34.45 B 67 ★03-14 FG 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 84 03-07 FG 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 70 ◆Sleepingonfreedom·97

SIREGlobal Campaign 82 72%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-03-21 35d	FG	9.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	93	4	9	6.5	F	85	91	64	96	105	95	17.4	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-02-14 42d	FG	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G2	94	4	8	7.8		88	89	82	98	108	95	12.6	Christopher Elliott
2026-01-03 35d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	94	7	8	11.2	S	70	78	103	93	89	97	2.3	Joel Rosario
2025-11-29 34d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	92	2	7	1.8	F	80	94	86	96	96	95	12.39	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-10-26 22d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	89	2	6	1.8		86	94	79	97	96	93	1.42	Jose Ortiz
2025-10-04 35d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	91	3	9	7.2	F	94	94	99	99	105	92	18.89	Christopher Elliott
2025-08-30	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	1	9	0.0	F	84	80	62	95	90	87	17.3	Christopher Elliott

8 Iron Dome

4C 126 lbs L P

4.6%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-17.6

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig97 0 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class94.1 +3.5 vs race +2.5 gap

MC15.8% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced91.1 -0.8 vs today

Pace EP84.2 best 102.1

Pace LP82.5 best 101.2

Energy0.52

Connections

JockLuis Saezκ 0.18

TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33

J×T41 · 17% win · 37% ITM

Angles

Steven Asmussen: 2nd off layoff 17% -28% Luis Saez / Steven Asmussen 17% -22% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	11	3	3	2	27%	98.0
2026	2	0	2	0	0%	98.0
2025	9	3	1	2	33%	97.3
SAR	5	3	1	1	60%	98.0
Dirt	11	3	3	2	27%	98.0
Route	9	3	3	1	33%	98.0
Wet	1	0	0	1	0%	92.8

WORKS 07-13 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 56 07-06 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:02.30 B 62 06-29 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.65 B 85 ★06-22 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 80 ★06-10 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 66 ★05-27 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:00.21 B 87

SIREInto Mischief 87 96%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 85d·2.2×	SAR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	2	5	4.0		—	—	—	98	112	94	1.47	Luis Saez
2026-04-25 182d·4.8×	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	2	7	2.0		85	90	85	96	100	94	2.7	Erik Asmussen
2025-10-25 27d	BAQ	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	94	6	6	5.5	S	102	nan	58	92	93	94	1.9	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-09-28 38d	RP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	92	2	6	3.2		75	78	101	97	105	92	4.3	Jose Ortiz
2025-08-21 14d	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	1	5	0.0	F	80	85	96	95	100	90	0.3	Jose Ortiz
2025-08-07 22d	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	1	9	0.0		92	89	80	97	102	89	0.45	Jose Ortiz
2025-07-16 40d	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	1	6	0.0	S	108	93	99	96	102	87	0.8	Jose Ortiz
2025-06-06 43d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	85	3	11	7.5	F	88	84	62	93	94	88	0.7	Jose Ortiz
2025-04-24 26d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	3	7	4.0		nan	nan	96	92	94	86	8.9	Erik Asmussen
2025-03-29	OP	9.0f	dirt	Good	MSW	86	7	8	10.2	F	84	91	97	89	88	86	16.9	Erik Asmussen

2 Hop Sing

5G 126 lbs L EP

2.2%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -4 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class90.7 +0.1 vs race +2.4 gap

MC13.0% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced90.3 -1.6 vs today

Pace EP87.3 best 95.5

Pace LP86.9 best 98.5

Energy0.52

Connections

JockKendrick Carmoucheκ 0.19was Edgard Zayas · +0.0

TrnChad Summersκ 0.26was Jose D'Angelo · -0.5

J×T15 · 27% win · 53% ITM

Angles

Kendrick Carmouche / Chad Summers 26% +6% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Chad Summers: off layoff (60d+) 8% -41%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	1	4	1	11%	100.1
2026	1	0	0	0	0%	91.8
2025	6	1	3	1	17%	100.1
SAR	1	0	1	0	0%	100.1
Dirt	9	1	4	1	11%	100.1
Route	7	1	3	1	14%	100.1
Wet	2	0	1	0	0%	95.6

WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 47.22 B 79 07-18 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.85 B 56 07-10 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.33 B 65 06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :47.66 B 67 06-13 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.35 B 59 05-23 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.95 B 52

SIRECurlin 87 96%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-29 194d·3.7×	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	5	5	7.5		90	85	85	92	86	91	1.7	Edgard Zayas
2025-11-16 52d	CD	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	4	8	7.8	S	93	79	84	95	102	91	2.84	Luan Machado
2025-09-25 46d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	2	9	0.8	F	92	95	98	95	102	90	2.22	Luis Saez
2025-08-10 42d	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	2	8	0.1		96	nan	94	100	109	88	4.1	Jose Ortiz
2025-06-29 43d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	3	5	5.0	S	88	89	94	96	104	88	1.55	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-05-17 28d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast (Sealed)	MSW	86	1	8	0.0	F	70	87	99	100	111	86	1.75	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-04-19 170d·3.3×	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	2	8	1.2		100	nan	74	98	112	84	3.3	Carol Cedeno
2024-10-31 334d·6.4×	CD	6.5f	dirt	Muddy	MSW	88	4	6	9.2	F	100	nan	62	91	86	85	1.25	Luis Saez
2023-12-02	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	87	2	8	9.5	F	76	98	115	96	102	87	1.7	Luis Saez

6 Expect the Best

4G 126 lbs L P

1.8%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.5

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig95 -2 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class95.0 +4.4 vs race +0.1 gap

MC12.5% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.18

Faced90.1 -1.8 vs today

Pace EP84.5 best 98.7

Pace LP77.2 best 96.6

Energy0.52

Connections

JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17was Ben Curtis · +0.7

TrnRon Moquettκ 0.21

J×T54 · 15% win · 37% ITM

Angles

Ricardo Santana, Jr. / Ron Moquett 15% -36% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	4	3	3	31%	97.0
2026	6	2	3	1	33%	96.7
2025	7	2	0	2	29%	97.0
SAR	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	12	4	3	3	33%	97.0
Route	9	3	3	2	33%	97.0
Wet	3	1	0	1	33%	97.0

WORKS 07-22 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.93 B 54 07-11 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.67 B 24 06-19 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 35 06-05 CD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 40 05-23 CD 4 Furlongs :53.00 B 21 04-02 OP 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 65

SIREKhozan 84 84%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-25 55d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	91	2	9	1.5		86	nan	83	94	100	95	8.05	Ben Curtis
2026-05-01 20d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	2	7	0.5	F	82	68	92	96	106	94	0.9	Rafael Bejarano
2026-04-11 36d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	2	10	0.1	F	99	73	27	97	102	93	2.1	Rafael Bejarano
2026-03-06 18d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	90	1	7	0.0	F	87	93	97	96	102	93	1.5	Rafael Bejarano
2026-02-16 44d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	89	3	9	1.5	F	82	92	79	96	100	92	7.6	Cristian Torres
2026-01-03 44d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	88	1	12	0.0	F	87	79	86	95	96	90	4.1	Luis Saez
2025-11-20 22d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Clm	87	1	7	0.0	F	75	71	74	97	103	90	2.38	Luis Saez
2025-10-29 18d	CD	9.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	87	3	8	5.0		104	89	47	91	81	89	2.72	Luis Saez
2025-10-11 43d	GP	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	89	6	10	2.5	F	96	nan	77	94	99	88	14.4	Leonel Reyes
2025-08-29	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	88	3	9	1.8	F	90	95	96	93	99	86	27.4	Leonel Reyes

5 Statesman

4C 126 lbs L S

1.5%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.6

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig95 -2 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class91.1 +0.5 vs race +4.0 gap

MC11.2% fair 8-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced90.3 -1.6 vs today

Pace EP86.1 best 96.9

Pace LP76.5 best 95.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockEdgard Zayasκ 0.19was John Velazquez · -0.5

TrnClaude McGaughey IIIκ 0.66

J×T5 · 0% win · 0% ITM

Angles

Claude McGaughey III: off layoff (60d+) 15% -33% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	2	4	20%	96.7
2026	4	0	3	0%	96.7
2025	3	2	0	67%	96.4
SAR	2	0	1	0%	93.4
Dirt	9	2	4	22%	96.7
Route	10	2	4	20%	96.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.20 B 74 07-20 SAR 4 Furlongs 52.40 B 22 ★07-14 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.95 B 62 ★07-08 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.50 B 64 06-16 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.25 B 60 06-10 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.48 B 68

SIREConstitution 86 93%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-15 62d	LRL	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	5	6	10.2	F	94	68	33	95	102	92	1.9	John Velazquez
2026-03-14 27d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	3	6	3.5		86	88	83	95	96	92	4.2	Joel Rosario
2026-02-15 29d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	89	3	7	0.8	S	97	nan	82	97	100	91	4.7	John Velazquez
2026-01-17 287d·7.2×	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	3	6	1.2	S	86	91	79	96	101	89	8.5	John Velazquez
2025-04-05 38d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G2	92	8	10	20.5	F	87	83	95	94	101	89	13.5	Samuel Marin
2025-02-26 40d	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	1	6	0.0	S	88	81	80	95	101	86	0.3	Samuel Marin
2025-01-17 62d	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	1	8	0.0	S	105	83	82	96	103	85	7.7	Samuel Marin
2024-11-16 77d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	4	7	11.8	S	83	91	102	91	80	87	4.0	Joe Bravo
2024-08-31 21d	SAR	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	7	9	5.2		98	nan	81	82	81	85	2.25	Jose Lezcano
2024-08-10	SAR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	3	7	10.2		81	93	116	93	87	87	7.3	Jose Lezcano