SAR 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T

Purse $95,000. One Mile. (up To $16,530 Nysbfoa) For Four Year Olds And Upward. Weight, 123 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 1, 2026 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $100,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void). New York Bred Claiming Price $125,000.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Gewurztraminer	13% 7-1 / 4/1	17.2%	E	1st/1w	94 +2.1	99²+1	100²	98³	84⁴	▲cls	14%	✓+2.41∠
2	Tuscan Sky	16% 5-1 / 6/1	15.1%	S	3rd/1w	90 -2.0	97⁴-1	100²	94⁵	85³	L3J+0.5	26%	✓+1.92∠
3	Dreamlike ✓	45% 6-5 / 9/2	28.8%	C	5th/1w	94 +2.7	100¹+2	101¹	100¹	—	L2	26%	✓+3.4★PRIME3∠
6	Reasoned Analysis	20% 4-1 / 2/1	28.0%	S	4th/1w	93 +1.5	99²+1	100²	100¹	96¹	L2	25%	✓+4.53∠
7	Mr. Papagiorgio	6% 15-1 / 6/1	10.8%	EP	2nd/1w	91 -0.3	93⁵-5	96⁵	95⁴	91²	J+2.1▲cls	8%	✓+3.01∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.7s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 VULN 92/98 Gewurztraminer 7 LP 93/103 Mr. Papagiorgio 2 LP 90/103 Tuscan Sky 6 95/99 Reasoned Analysis 3 97/94 Dreamlike

On the lead: 1, 7 · race sets up for closers

3 Dreamlike ★ PRIME

6G 121 lbs L C

44.7%

MODEL %

6-5

MODEL FAIR

+26.5

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig100 +2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 100 vs par 98

Class94.2 +2.7 vs race +5.3 gap

MC27.0% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced91.7 -1.3 vs today

Pace EP81.6 best 97.5

Pace LP78.2 best 94.2

Energy0.51

Connections

JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17was Kendrick Carmouche · -0.2

TrnLinda Riceκ 0.35

J×T23 · 26% win · 57% ITM

Angles

Ricardo Santana, Jr. / Linda Rice 22% +41% Linda Rice: 2nd off layoff 20% -25% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	24	3	10	6	12%	102.3
2026	6	0	3	3	0%	101.3
2025	8	2	3	1	25%	98.8
SAR	5	1	1	1	20%	100.0
Dirt	23	3	10	6	13%	102.3
Route	24	3	10	6	12%	102.3
Wet	2	0	2	0	0%	101.6

WORKS 07-12 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.65 B 48 06-30 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.48 B 68 ◆Music In Motion·87 06-19 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.01 B 70 06-12 BEL 5 Furlongs 1:01.90 B 62 05-12 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.84 B 66 ◆Bourbon Day·103 04-10 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.24 B 51

SIREGun Runner 89 97%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-25 63d·2.2×	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	3	8	5.0	S	—	—	—	100	104	94	6.69	Kendrick Carmouche
2026-05-23 28d	BAQ	9.0f	dirt	Good	AOC	91	2	7	0.2		98	49	38	98	95	94	3.38	Kendrick Carmouche
2026-04-25 29d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	AOC	92	2	7	1.2	F	72	84	94	101	103	94	2.92	Kendrick Carmouche
2026-03-27 27d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	3	7	2.8		89	89	75	100	113	94	2.56	Sahin Civaci
2026-02-28 24d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Good	AOC	92	2	9	1.5		80	88	93	101	106	93	3.37	Sahin Civaci
2026-02-04 40d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	3	7	4.5		74	78	86	99	100	93	5.21	Sahin Civaci
2025-12-26 20d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	1	8	0.0		82	76	88	96	111	92	4.16	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-12-06 28d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	2	11	6.8	F	86	nan	86	99	112	93	6.34	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-11-08 34d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	3	8	2.8		91	84	85	95	110	93	2.21	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-10-05	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	89	1	8	0.0	F	88	80	80	98	108	93	3.28	Kendrick Carmouche

6 Reasoned Analysis

5G 121 lbs L S

20.1%

MODEL %

4-1

MODEL FAIR

-13.2

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig99 +1 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 98 vs par 98

Class93.0 +1.5 vs race +6.3 gap

MC24.8% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced91.8 -1.2 vs today

Pace EP85.3 best 94.6

Pace LP85.4 best 98.8

Energy0.51

Connections

JockDylan Davisκ 0.22

TrnChad Brownκ 0.77

J×T155 · 25% win · 57% ITM

Angles

Chad Brown: 2nd off layoff 26% -4% Dylan Davis / Chad Brown 24% +1% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	3	2	38%	100.2
2026	1	0	1	0%	100.2
2025	2	1	1	50%	98.0
SAR	2	0	1	0%	100.2
Dirt	8	3	2	38%	100.2
Route	4	2	1	50%	100.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.56 B 61 07-18 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.84 B 59 06-28 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.55 B 74 ◆Limes Don'T Lie·97 06-21 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.75 B 72 06-14 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.70 B 54 ★06-07 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.90 B 67

SIREUpstart 84 88%ile turf 10%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 443d·6.5×	SAR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	3	9	2.5		92	95	99	100	108	92	9.61	Dylan Davis
2025-04-17 39d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	1	7	0.0		86	90	87	98	105	90	1.55	Dylan Davis
2025-03-09 274d·4.0×	AQU	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	3	6	13.0	F	89	79	75	97	101	92	3.05	Eric Cancel
2024-06-08 63d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	94	4	11	8.5	F	95	92	95	95	103	92	34.5	Eric Cancel
2024-04-06 41d	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	89	1	10	0.0	F	81	nan	87	95	99	89	15.5	Eric Cancel
2024-02-25 79d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	1	6	0.0	S	94	103	93	94	88	87	3.85	Eric Cancel
2023-12-08 68d	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	5	6	6.8		97	92	88	90	93	86	3.85	Manuel Franco
2023-10-01	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	4	12	6.8	F	92	92	97	90	83	86	17.0	Manuel Franco

2 Tuscan Sky

5G 121 lbs L S

16.4%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

+2.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig97 -1 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class89.5 -2.0 vs race +7.8 gap

MC18.5% fair 9-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced93.0 0.0 vs today

Pace EP77.2 best 90.1

Pace LP77.2 best 103.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29was John Velazquez · +0.5

TrnTodd Pletcherκ 0.64

J×T62 · 26% win · 56% ITM

Angles

Flavien Prat / Todd Pletcher 22% -6% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	3	1	2	23%	102.0
2026	2	0	0	1	0%	99.2
2025	4	0	0	1	0%	99.7
SAR	1	0	0	0	0%	94.1
Dirt	12	3	1	2	25%	102.0
Route	11	2	1	1	18%	102.0
Wet	3	2	0	0	67%	102.0

WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.50 B 47 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.80 B 40 ◆Renegade·101 06-21 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.52 B 52 06-13 BEL 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 32 06-06 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.05 B 71 05-16 SAR 4 Furlongs 48.16 B 73

SIREVino Rosso 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 43d	SAR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	8	9	14.5		80	92	89	94	97	90	14.38	John Velazquez
2026-05-22 342d·8.0×	BAQ	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	3	7	4.5	F	87	78	68	99	100	90	3.22	Flavien Prat
2025-06-14 42d	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	G3	92	5	6	17.5	F	90	90	103	93	93	91	3.7	Frankie Pennington
2025-05-03 35d	BAQ	9.0f	turf	Firm	G2	96	5	5	14.2		54	88	54	97	97	93	5.5	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-03-29 42d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	94	3	6	6.2	F	66	74	63	99	111	93	8.1	Dylan Davis
2025-02-15 56d	FG	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	94	6	8	6.5	S	63	102	125	100	106	92	6.9	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2024-12-21 48d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	94	7	8	11.8		88	98	92	96	90	94	1.3	John Velazquez
2024-11-03 106d·2.5×	BAQ	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	2	8	0.8	F	82	79	84	99	102	93	3.95	John Velazquez
2024-07-20 35d	MTH	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G1	94	6	7	20.0	F	73	92	98	93	91	94	5.7	Javier Castellano
2024-06-15	MTH	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	94	1	6	0.0	F	92	87	90	99	110	94	2.4	Javier Castellano

1 Gewurztraminer

5G 123 lbs L E

13.1%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.9

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig99 +1 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 98 vs par 98

Class93.6 +2.1 vs race +5.8 gap

MC24.1% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced89.2 -3.8 vs today

Pace EP80.3 best 92.1

Pace LP82.0 best 98.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28

TrnKinnon LaRoseκ 0.34

J×T7 · 14% win · 71% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	33	10	9	6	30%	100.5
2026	6	1	3	2	17%	100.5
2025	13	5	4	2	38%	98.1
SAR	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	21	7	4	4	33%	100.5
Route	31	9	9	5	29%	100.5
Wet	1	1	0	0	100%	92.9

WORKS 07-24 SAR 5 Furlongs 1:01.81 B 56 07-15 SAR 4 Furlongs :48.66 B 66 07-02 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 46 ◆Tamino·93 05-22 IND 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 52 04-24 IND 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 58 04-14 IND 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 43

SIRECollected 83 74%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-18 20d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	89	2	6	0.1		92	92	77	98	103	94	0.72	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-05-29 27d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	3	8	3.0		80	84	81	96	96	93	2.07	Emmanuel Esquivel
2026-05-02 38d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	2	10	1.0		80	87	98	100	109	92	4.2	Emmanuel Esquivel
2026-03-25 24d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	88	2	8	2.5		80	80	67	91	95	92	1.4	Luan Machado
2026-03-01 23d	OP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	87	1	8	0.0	F	70	78	93	100	111	91	1.2	Emmanuel Esquivel
2026-02-06 54d·2.0×	OP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	89	3	11	2.8	F	82	63	40	99	108	91	6.1	Emmanuel Esquivel
2025-12-14 29d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	89	8	9	12.0	F	92	nan	56	93	92	92	2.9	Emmanuel Esquivel
2025-11-15 59d·2.2×	CD	8.5f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	91	2	12	1.0		87	85	102	90	94	91	7.19	Emmanuel Esquivel
2025-09-17 21d	IND	8.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	87	1	10	0.0		104	92	80	94	102	91	6.0	Emmanuel Esquivel
2025-08-27	IND	8.5f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	88	2	8	4.0	F	76	nan	83	89	96	91	1.8	Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.

7 Mr. Papagiorgio

5G 123 lbs L EP

5.6%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.7

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -5 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class91.2 -0.3 vs race +2.0 gap

MC5.6% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.21

Faced88.8 -4.2 vs today

Pace EP86.3 best 92.8

Pace LP83.6 best 102.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockJose Ortizκ 0.25was Reylu Gutierrez · +2.1

TrnRichard Dutrow, Jr.κ 0.45

J×T26 · 8% win · 46% ITM

Angles

Jose Ortiz / Richard Dutrow, Jr. 13% -24%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	18	5	1	6	28%	96.3
2026	6	2	0	2	33%	96.3
2025	6	2	1	2	33%	95.1
SAR	2	0	0	0	0%	93.4
Dirt	18	5	1	6	28%	96.3
Route	13	5	1	3	38%	96.3
Wet	6	2	1	3	33%	96.3

WORKS 07-27 BEL 4 Furlongs 51.54 B 32 07-12 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.42 B 50 06-22 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.88 B 37 06-13 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 55 06-07 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.66 B 64 05-22 BEL 3 Furlongs 39.08 B 26

SIREEnticed 84 82%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 34d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	4	8	2.8	F	92	86	89	95	106	90	8.44	Reylu Gutierrez
2026-05-24 28d	MTH	8.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	87	1	3	0.0	F	87	86	102	93	95	90	0.3	Paco Lopez
2026-04-26 42d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Clm	90	1	7	0.0		90	91	84	96	107	89	4.56	Flavien Prat
2026-03-15 28d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	88	3	6	0.5		87	90	81	95	103	88	1.51	Flavien Prat
2026-02-15 31d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	3	6	7.8	F	93	85	72	92	94	89	2.44	Manuel Franco
2026-01-15 83d·2.7×	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	90	4	6	15.0		89	77	55	91	90	90	11.71	Ruben Silvera
2025-10-24 29d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	6	7	9.8	F	68	91	112	91	102	90	5.49	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-09-25 68d·2.2×	BAQ	9.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	AOC	90	3	7	6.0	F	66	92	89	90	91	90	6.01	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-07-19 29d	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	AOC	89	1	7	0.0	S	94	84	83	93	104	89	3.3	Luis Saez
2025-06-20	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	88	1	5	0.0		89	79	83	94	103	88	0.6	Joel Rosario