SAR 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

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▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 D R11 T R12 T

Purse $105,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Turf) (Rail at 27 Feet) For Three Year Olds And Upward Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New York State-Bred Registry Which Have Never Won $22,000 Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $35,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will run at Five and One Half Furlongs on the Main Track). .

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Illmatic	30% 5-2 / 9/2	20.5%	E	2nd/1w	92 +2.1	87⁵-5	86⁸	86⁸	85³	J+1.3	29%	✓+1.61∠
2	Joker On Fire	7% 12-1 / 5/1	10.8%	EP	4th/1w	89 -1.3	90¹-2	92²	92¹	98¹	★gold	0%
3	Mozambique	3% 30-1 / 10/1	5.5%	S	7th/1w	90 0.0	88³-4	89⁵	89³	—	J+0.5	0%	✓+1.6
4	Van Vollenhoven	2% 50-1 / 10/1	4.9%	EP	5th/1w	91 +0.8	86⁷-6	90³	85⁹	—	L3	20%	2∠
5	Blamicker	41% 7-5 / 12/1	20.0%	E	1st/2w	86 -3.9	86⁷-6	—	90²	93²	L3★goldJ+1.9D→T▲cls	—	✓+2.7★PRIME6∠
6	King Puck ✓	7% 12-1 / 8/1	8.1%	EP	3rd/3w	90 -0.2	86⁷-6	89⁵	88⁵	—	L2	17%	3∠
7	Rhyton	5% 20-1 / 8/1	7.1%	S	9th/2w	92 +1.5	87⁵-5	89⁵	89³	—	L3★goldJ-1.2	7%	⚠-1.51∠
8	Diliello	2% 50-1 / 15/1	3.8%	S	6th/3w	90 -0.3	88³-4	90³	88⁵	—	L3★gold	10%	3∠
9	Dakota Country	3% 30-1 / 8/5	19.2%	S	8th/3w	90 -0.2	89²-3	93¹	88⁵	84⁴	CLMT+0.4J+1.6	40%	✓+1.61∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 21.9s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 HOLDS ⚡ » 92/100 Blamicker 1 111/93 Illmatic 6 »» 90/95 King Puck 2 95/101 Joker On Fire 4 91/99 Van Vollenhoven 8 »» 93/93 Diliello 3 96/94 Mozambique 9 C★ »» 86/113 Dakota Country 7 » 79/79 Rhyton

On the lead: 5, 1, 6 · race sets up for closers

5 Blamicker ★ PRIME

4C 126 lbs L E

41.1%

MODEL %

7-5

MODEL FAIR

+33.4

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -6 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class86.1 -3.9 vs race -0.1 gap

MC6.9% fair 12-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced84.7 -5.1 vs today

Pace EP84.0 best 92.3

Pace LP81.4 best 100.3

Energy0.54

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockKendrick Carmoucheκ 0.19was Andre Worrie · +1.9

TrnChris Englehartκ 0.13

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% Kendrick Carmouche / Chris Englehart 14% -33% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Chris Englehart: first-time turf 7% -61%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	5	1	62%	97.9
2026	2	2	0	100%	91.2
2025	4	2	1	50%	97.9
SAR	1	0	0	0%	85.1
Turf	0	0	0	—	—
Sprint	8	5	1	62%	97.9
Wet	1	0	1	0%	93.0

WORKS 07-20 FL 5 Furlongs 1:04.20 B G 45 ◆Sorority Prank·93 06-15 FL 4 Furlongs :51.30 B 37 06-01 FL 4 Furlongs :49.30 B G 56 ◆Ace Up Her Sleeve·85 05-09 FL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 57 05-01 FL 4 Furlongs :51.30 B 29 04-22 FL 4 Furlongs :50.30 B 45 ◆Khali'S Dream·87

SIREBlame 85 88%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-29 42d	FL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	84	1	6	0.0	F	92	92	94	90	93	86	0.12	Andre Worrie
2026-05-18 173d·4.1×	FL	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	1	5	0.0	F	89	90	100	91	100	86	0.16	Andre Worrie
2025-11-26 28d	FL	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	83	2	6	0.8	F	84	75	67	93	101	86	0.29	Andre Worrie
2025-10-29 95d·2.3×	FL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	84	1	6	0.0	S	84	93	90	94	102	86	0.1	J. Rohena
2025-07-26 39d	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	6	9	13.0	F	83	87	59	85	78	86	4.3	Andre Worrie
2025-06-17 211d·5.0×	FL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	83	1	9	0.0	F	84	85	82	98	108	86	2.35	Andre Worrie
2024-11-18 21d	FL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	82	4	7	3.0		75	90	98	86	76	85	1.6	Andre Worrie
2024-10-28	FL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	1	7	0.0		82	75	85	91	83	80	6.6	Andre Worrie

1 Illmatic

3C 122 lbs L E

29.8%

MODEL %

5-2

MODEL FAIR

+11.6

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -5 vs par

Needs +2~31% run that

Class92.1 +2.1 vs race -5.3 gap

MC7.3% fair 12-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced88.1 -1.7 vs today

Pace EP84.1 best 110.8

Pace LP81.9 best 93.2

Energy0.54

Connections

JockFlavien Pratκ 0.29was Jaime Rodriguez · +1.3

TrnMiguel Clementκ 0.57

J×T41 · 29% win · 54% ITM

Angles

Flavien Prat / Miguel Clement 29% +18%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	2	1	20%	95.4
2026	4	1	2	1	25%	95.4
2025	1	0	0	0	0%	83.4
SAR	1	0	0	0	0%	83.4
Turf	2	0	1	0	0%	86.4
Sprint	5	1	2	1	20%	95.4
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-21 BEL 5 Furlongs 1:02.25 B 69 ◆Only For Now·97 07-09 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.21 B 56 06-10 BEL 4 Furlongs :48.77 B 65 05-29 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.60 B 49 05-06 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.45 B 61 04-27 BEL 5 Furlongs 1:02.25 B 69 ◆Run Wild

SIREHonest Mischief 85 90%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 36d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	91	2	6	0.1	F	90	81	80	86	85	91	2.65	Jaime Rodriguez
2026-05-15 34d	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	3	7	2.8	S	111	nan	87	91	86	90	0.6	Jaime Rodriguez
2026-04-11 42d	AQU	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	89	2	5	8.5	F	68	86	83	93	101	89	1.72	Manuel Franco
2026-02-28 227d·5.4×	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Good	MSW	86	1	8	0.0	F	80	83	71	95	106	86	9.28	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-07-16	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	6	9	7.2	F	nan	nan	93	83	77	87	6.8	Joel Rosario

2 Joker On Fire

4G 126 lbs L EP

7.3%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-9.4

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 -2 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class88.7 -1.3 vs race +1.5 gap

MC21.7% fair 7-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced86.8 -3.0 vs today

Pace EP85.1 best 95.1

Pace LP88.9 best 100.7

Energy0.52

Connections

JockJose Lezcanoκ 0.23

TrnBruce Levineκ 0.12

J×T11 · 0% win · 55% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	12	1	3	8%	92.0
2026	3	0	2	0%	92.0
2025	3	1	0	33%	85.3
SAR	4	0	1	0%	92.0
Turf	4	1	2	25%	92.0
Sprint	11	1	3	9%	92.0
Wet	1	0	1	0%	87.1

WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 52.00 B 18 06-27 BEL 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 72 06-02 BEL 3 Furlongs :37.85 B 38 05-09 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.25 B 55 05-02 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.49 B 50 04-23 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.77 B 62

SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 32d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	90	2	11	1.0	F	95	96	101	92	99	87	3.16	Jose Lezcano
2026-06-07 22d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	5	11	1.2		—	—	—	90	93	85	3.2	Jose Lezcano
2026-05-16 184d·5.8×	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	2	9	1.0	S	82	89	98	92	89	83	7.06	Jose Lezcano
2025-11-13 237d·7.4×	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	1	10	0.0	S	86	95	87	85	80	81	7.95	Javier Castellano
2025-03-21 69d·2.2×	AQU	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	4	5	10.5	F	82	85	92	83	72	81	2.0	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-01-11 34d	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	7	11	15.2	S	95	94	93	81	77	81	20.8	Christopher Elliott
2024-12-08 21d	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	5	9	18.5	F	78	107	106	82	80	83	7.1	Florent Geroux
2024-11-17 22d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	5	9	22.5	F	88	83	86	88	88	85	3.65	Javier Castellano
2024-10-26 27d	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	4	9	9.0	S	92	95	108	87	80	85	7.8	Javier Castellano
2024-09-29	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	85	2	10	2.2	F	90	95	107	87	78	82	3.55	Ricardo Santana, Jr.

6 King Puck

5G 126 lbs L EP

7.3%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.8

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -6 vs par

Needs +8~2% run that

Class89.8 -0.2 vs race -3.7 gap

MC11.0% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced87.3 -2.5 vs today

Pace EP78.5 best 90.3

Pace LP78.4 best 95.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockJose Ortizκ 0.25was John Velazquez · +0.1

TrnMichael Makerκ 0.4

J×T92 · 17% win · 42% ITM

Angles

Jose Ortiz / Michael Maker 18% -26% Michael Maker: 2nd off layoff 18% -19% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	1	3	12%	90.8
2026	1	0	0	0%	88.5
2025	4	1	1	25%	88.6
SAR	3	1	1	33%	88.6
Turf	8	1	3	12%	90.8
Sprint	8	1	3	12%	90.8
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 SAR 4 Furlongs 51.55 B 22 07-18 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.00 B 59

SIRETwirling Candy 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 239d·4.3×	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	7	12	2.5		—	—	—	88	88	89	10.28	John Velazquez
2025-11-07 28d	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	88	10	10	9.5	F	90	80	55	82	88	89	5.7	Joel Rosario
2025-10-10 79d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	88	7	7	5.5		76	82	71	83	83	89	2.17	Joel Rosario
2025-07-23 34d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	85	1	9	0.0	F	56	82	86	89	85	88	1.25	Joel Rosario
2025-06-19 279d·5.1×	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	2	6	0.5		86	90	95	87	94	87	2.1	Joel Rosario
2024-09-13 55d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	85	7	8	8.8	S	nan	nan	80	82	63	89	0.9	Joel Rosario
2024-07-20 28d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	2	7	1.8	F	66	nan	73	88	92	87	0.7	Joel Rosario
2024-06-22	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	85	2	9	4.5	S	80	81	66	91	89	85	4.1	Joel Rosario

7 Rhyton THIN DATA

4G 126 lbs L S

4.8%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.3

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -5 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class91.5 +1.5 vs race -4.4 gap

MC9.9% fair 9-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced87.2 -2.6 vs today

Pace EP79.8 best 79.1

Pace LP79.7 best 78.6

Energy0.50

Connections

JockRicardo Santana, Jr.κ 0.17was Flavien Prat · -1.2

TrnMiguel Clementκ 0.57

J×T14 · 7% win · 29% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	1	33%	88.6
2026	2	0	1	0%	88.6
2025	1	1	0	100%	87.2
SAR	2	0	1	0%	88.6
Turf	3	1	1	33%	88.6
Sprint	3	1	1	33%	88.6
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-23 BEL 3 Furlongs 36.66 B 49 06-25 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.10 B 49 ◆Big Destroyer·92 05-27 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.77 B 48 05-17 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.21 B 66 05-09 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.95 B 36 04-30 PAY 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 83 ◆Medici Road·87

SIREKantharos 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 27d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	2	12	1.5		—	—	—	89	89	90	7.04	Flavien Prat
2026-06-07 207d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	9	11	5.5		—	—	—	86	87	88	7.22	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-11-12	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	1	10	0.0	S	79	nan	79	87	80	83	4.58	Manuel Franco

3 Mozambique

4G 126 lbs L S

3.1%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.0

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -4 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class90.0 0.0 vs race -2.2 gap

MC14.6% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced88.3 -1.5 vs today

Pace EP80.5 best 95.8

Pace LP87.7 best 94.3

Energy0.52

Connections

JockEdgard Zayasκ 0.19was Ruben Silvera · +0.5

TrnRudy Rodriguezκ 0.31

J×T5 · 0% win · 0% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	1	4	2	7%	92.0
2026	6	0	2	1	0%	91.5
2025	6	1	1	1	17%	92.0
SAR	6	0	0	2	0%	91.5
Turf	1	0	0	1	0%	88.7
Sprint	12	1	4	1	8%	92.0
Wet	2	0	0	1	0%	86.1

WORKS 07-22 SAR 4 Furlongs 50.03 B 38 07-15 SAR 4 Furlongs :51.14 B 31 06-25 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.33 B 35 06-18 SAR 4 Furlongs 53.49 B 9 06-02 BEL 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 28 05-27 BEL 4 Furlongs 53.55 B 8

SIREGoldencents 82 63%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 27d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	3	12	1.5		—	—	—	89	89	89	42.42	Ruben Silvera
2026-06-07 23d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Good	Alw	90	5	9	6.5	F	71	91	91	92	94	89	32.92	Ruben Silvera
2026-05-15 27d	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	5	7	5.5	S	96	nan	91	88	83	88	7.96	Ruben Silvera
2026-04-18 49d	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	2	7	5.5	F	nan	nan	91	90	95	88	3.38	Ruben Silvera
2026-02-28 23d	AQU	6.5f	dirt	Good	Alw	86	2	9	0.5	F	70	78	94	91	92	86	5.2	Ruben Silvera
2026-02-05 68d·2.5×	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	88	8	11	12.2	F	86	nan	94	87	87	86	26.63	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2025-11-29 50d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	5	12	14.8	F	86	nan	93	88	98	88	4.86	Ruben Silvera
2025-10-10 21d	BAQ	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	90	2	6	2.0	F	81	91	89	92	100	86	15.13	Ruben Silvera
2025-09-19 27d	BAQ	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	1	8	0.0	F	93	82	78	90	88	84	8.82	Christopher Elliott
2025-08-23	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	4	10	6.2	F	91	88	96	90	99	82	45.25	Christopher Elliott

9 Dakota Country

5G 126 lbs L S

2.9%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-35.6

EDGE vs ML

8/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -3 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class89.8 -0.2 vs race -0.8 gap

MC16.7% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced89.8 0.0 vs today

Pace EP75.4 best 85.9

Pace LP85.8 best 113.3

Energy0.50

Connections

JockIrad Ortiz, Jr.κ 0.28was Kyle Frey · +1.6

TrnRobert Hess, Jr.κ 0.29CLAIMEDwas Steve Sherman · +0.4

J×T10 · 40% win · 60% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	16	5	2	1	31%	92.8
2026	5	2	1	0	40%	92.8
2025	7	3	0	1	43%	90.0
SAR	3	0	0	1	0%	87.5
Turf	15	5	2	1	33%	92.8
Sprint	4	3	1	0	75%	92.8
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 SAR 3 Furlongs 36.95 B 43 07-17 SAR 4 Furlongs 49.30 B 58 07-07 KEE Four Furlongs 51.80 b 20 05-30 SA 4 Furlongs :48.80 H 46 05-23 SA 4 Furlongs :49.60 H 45 05-16 SA 4 Furlongs :47.80 H 62

SIREMucho Macho Man 82 71%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-11 41d	SA	6.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	91	1	5	0.0	F	82	nan	85	88	87	89	3.2	Kyle Frey
2026-05-01 55d	SA	6.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	89	1	10	0.0		66	93	96	89	89	88	11.8	Kyle Frey
2026-03-07 14d	SA	8.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	90	9	9	6.5		74	83	76	87	89	89	14.7	Tiago Pereira
2026-02-21 42d	SA	6.5f	turf	Good	Clm	88	2	12	0.1	F	55	93	113	93	99	88	40.0	Kyle Frey
2026-01-10 42d	SA	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	90	9	9	7.0	F	86	88	76	87	84	89	11.3	Kazushi Kimura
2025-11-29 36d	DMR	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	9	11	6.8	F	92	82	71	86	84	89	23.1	William Antongeorgi III
2025-10-24 7d	SA	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	88	1	7	0.0	F	94	80	94	88	93	89	1.0	Antonio Fresu
2025-10-17 46d	SA	6.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	86	1	7	0.0	F	88	79	85	90	94	89	3.6	Antonio Fresu
2025-09-01 16d	DMR	8.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	89	8	12	5.5	F	81	85	87	87	90	88	32.7	Kyle Frey
2025-08-16	SAR	8.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	87	5	9	2.8	S	nan	nan	50	86	86	87	3.75	Joel Rosario

8 Diliello

3R 122 lbs L S

2.3%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.0

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -4 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class89.7 -0.3 vs race -1.2 gap

MC0.9% fair 99-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced87.3 -2.5 vs today

Pace EP84.2 best 93.2

Pace LP83.1 best 93.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockJunior Alvaradoκ 0.2was Ricardo Santana, Jr. · +0.3

TrnThomas Morleyκ 0.29

J×T10 · 10% win · 50% ITM

Angles

3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% Junior Alvarado / Thomas Morley 9% -47%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	1	1	3	12%	89.5
2026	2	0	0	0	0%	89.5
2025	6	1	1	3	17%	89.2
SAR	5	0	1	2	0%	89.5
Turf	7	1	1	3	14%	89.5
Sprint	6	1	1	2	17%	89.5
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 SAR 3 Furlongs 37.75 B 36 07-18 SAR 3 Furlongs 38.00 B 36 06-24 SAR 4 Furlongs :49.13 B 58 ◆Private Desire·102 05-31 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.64 B 49 05-23 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.22 B 71 05-17 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.62 B 38

SIREGift Box 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 27d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	8	12	3.5		—	—	—	88	86	89	27.73	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2026-06-07 198d·7.3×	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	7	11	3.0		—	—	—	90	90	87	13.17	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-11-21 29d	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	1	9	0.0		77	nan	83	86	82	86	2.59	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-10-23 27d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn	85	3	10	5.2		92	nan	86	89	88	85	6.1	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-09-26 27d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	4	8	19.2	F	85	85	nan	80	69	89	3.85	Romero Maragh
2025-08-30 22d	SAR	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	3	10	4.5	S	86	87	93	83	73	90	5.8	Romero Maragh
2025-08-08 23d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	3	8	3.2	S	93	87	79	87	77	90	1.2	Javier Castellano
2025-07-16	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	2	9	3.2	F	76	90	104	88	83	87	14.1	Javier Castellano

4 Van Vollenhoven

5G 126 lbs L EP

1.5%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.6

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -6 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class90.8 +0.8 vs race -4.8 gap

MC11.0% fair 8-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced88.8 -1.0 vs today

Pace EP82.0 best 90.8

Pace LP84.2 best 99.3

Energy0.53

Connections

JockDylan Davisκ 0.22was Jose Ortiz · -0.3

TrnDavid Dugganκ 0.32

J×T5 · 20% win · 60% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% Dylan Davis / David Duggan 8% -74%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	1	3	8%	89.7
2026	3	0	1	0%	89.7
2025	8	1	1	12%	88.1
SAR	4	0	2	0%	89.7
Turf	6	0	1	0%	89.7
Sprint	9	1	1	11%	89.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-29 BEL 3 Furlongs :35.00 B 60 05-31 BEL 4 Furlongs 47.63 B 72 05-17 BEL 4 Furlongs 49.20 B 54 ★05-10 BEL 3 Furlongs 36.01 B 54

SIREBig Brown 80 40%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 27d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	11	12	5.5		—	—	—	85	84	91	1.87	Jose Ortiz
2026-06-07 155d·4.4×	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	2	11	0.2		—	—	—	90	94	90	5.18	Javier Castellano
2026-01-03 27d	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	6	9	7.8		91	85	72	87	86	90	8.36	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2025-12-07 30d	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	89	5	8	0.5		90	nan	93	86	94	89	25.95	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2025-11-07 28d	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	88	4	10	3.2	F	75	76	83	84	96	89	7.45	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2025-10-10 54d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	88	4	7	2.5		82	79	86	84	87	88	4.53	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-08-17 35d	SAR	8.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	6	10	6.2	F	77	93	99	83	88	90	30.5	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2025-07-13 64d	SAR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	2	7	2.5	S	82	76	82	88	91	88	9.2	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2025-05-10 85d·2.4×	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	1	9	0.0	S	94	101	102	86	89	88	0.9	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2025-02-14	AQU	7.0f	dirt	Good	MSW	87	6	9	9.0		98	nan	94	82	75	89	6.0	Luis Rivera, Jr.